{"id":82394,"date":"2026-06-10T15:10:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T15:10:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/82394\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T15:10:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T15:10:50","slug":"calgary-needs-to-show-up-how-calgary-could-shape-support-for-alberta-separation-in-october-referendum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/82394\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Calgary needs to show up’: How Calgary could shape support for Alberta separation in October referendum"},"content":{"rendered":"

Calgary could play a key role in determining the level of support for Alberta separation in the province’s upcoming referendum, political observers say, as both separatist and pro-Canada groups work to rally support ahead of the vote.<\/p>\n

Albertans will head to the polls Oct. 19 to vote on 10 referendum questions, including one that asks whether Alberta should stay in Canada or begin the process toward holding a binding vote on separating.<\/p>\n

Pollster Janet Brown said campaigns that can effectively connect with swing voters in Calgary could help shift the margin of support that Alberta’s separation movement receives on referendum day. Based on current polling, Brown said it is “hard to imagine” supporters of separation securing a majority vote. However, she said support for the separation question could range from as low as 20 per cent to as high as 40 per cent.<\/p>\n

“That’s what this election is about,” Brown said. “Do we have a big but insufficient number for separation, or do we have a very small number for separation? And that’s where swing voters and swing voters in Calgary could make the difference.”<\/p>\n

Brown describes Alberta’s political landscape as a three-legged stool made up of Edmonton, Calgary and the rest of the province.<\/p>\n

“Right in the middle is Calgary,” Brown said. “It’s the sweet spot between what people are thinking in Edmonton and what they’re thinking in the rest of the province.”<\/p>\n

While Edmonton has generally leaned more progressive in provincial politics \u2014 all Edmonton ridings elected Alberta NDP MLAs in 2023 \u2014 Calgary remains more politically divided. In that same election, the NDP won 14 of Calgary’s 26 provincial electoral districts, while the UCP captured 12.<\/p>\n

Related’Soft separatists’ a key group, says pollster<\/p>\n

Brown pointed to an extensive polling project she conducted for CBC Calgary in April that identified about 23 per cent of Albertans as “committed separatists” \u2014 those who are firmly locked in on separation \u2014 and another 11 per cent as “soft separatists,” who might not be happy with Alberta’s current place in Canada, but not entirely convinced that separation is the way to go.<\/p>\n

Soft separatists will be the most critical group going forward, Brown said, as separatist groups seek to broaden support and federalist campaigns work to contain separatist sentiment.<\/p>\n

“Campaigns have a way of changing the dynamic,” Brown said. “Right now it looks pretty static, but I don’t discount the opportunity for effective communications to change it one way or the other.”<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

The Canadian flag and an Alberta provincial flag fly together.<\/p>\n

Lead, Not Leave, a policy initiative that aims to keep a strong Alberta within a United Canada, plans to roll out a series of policy proposals focused on strengthening Alberta’s position within Confederation and addressing longstanding frustrations with Ottawa.<\/p>\n

Policy strategist Ken Boessenkool said the initiative aims to appeal to a segment of Alberta voters it believes could make the difference between 15 per cent support and 40 percent support for moving forward with a binding referendum on separation.<\/p>\n

“They’re separatist curious, and they just want to know that there’s a path to make Alberta’s place stronger in Canada,” said Boessenkool.<\/p>\n

Encouraging Calgarians to vote important, says former finance minister<\/p>\n

Also backing the initiative is former Progressive Conservative finance minister Jim Dinning<\/a>, who said he hopes its forthcoming policy proposals can help engage voters ahead of the referendum, particularly in Calgary, where voter turnout has historically lagged.<\/p>\n

“We don’t have a great track record of voter turnout in Calgary,” Dinning said, pointing to turnout dropping as low as 30 per cent in the city’s 2013 municipal election. “How do you galvanize severely more and more Calgarians to get excited about this, and come out to vote?”<\/p>\n

\"Jim<\/p>\n

Jim Dinning on Friday, Dec. 8, 2023 in Edmonton.<\/p>\n

Dinning, who served as finance minister under former premier Ralph Klein in the 1990s, said Calgary occupies a unique position in the separation conversation in its role attracting capital investment and business from across Canada and around the world to the province.<\/p>\n

He said a move toward separation could undermine those efforts.<\/p>\n

“Calgary is bigger than Alberta, and sometimes it’s bigger than Canada itself,” Dinning said. “Attracting people to come here and fuel the engine of the Alberta economy, and attracting capital to Alberta, is what we’re really good at. It’s hard work, and the idea of putting up walls around Alberta is only going to make our job harder.”<\/p>\n

‘Calgary will ultimately be the battleground’<\/p>\n

As Alberta’s separatist movement generates headlines across Canada and abroad, Calgary-based political strategist Shannon Larkins said supporters of a united Canada need to do a better job making their case to Albertans, particularly in Calgary.<\/p>\n

“Right now, separatists are controlling far more of the conversation than they represent in the population, and the pro-Canada side need to show strength before that perception becomes reality,” said Larkins, a communications strategist who previously served as press secretary to former premier Ralph Klein.<\/p>\n

Larkins said pro-Canada groups such as Forever Canadian should focus more of their efforts on Calgary, which she sees as a key battleground for voter mobilization ahead of the referendum.<\/p>\n

“Edmonton has been carrying much of the pro-Canada conversation, but Calgary will ultimately be the battleground,” Larkins said. “The outcome won’t be decided by the people at the edges. It will be decided by the people in the centre.”<\/p>\n

“If you want to show Canada and the world that Alberta’s future is in Canada, Calgary needs to show up.”<\/p>\n

\"Hundreds<\/p>\n

Hundreds of people lined up in the rain to pick-up Forever Canadian lawn signs at the Renfrew Community Centre in Calgary on Sunday, May 31, 2026.<\/p>\n

Political analyst Duane Bratt said Calgary’s importance in shaping the outcome of the referendum is a matter of simple math.<\/p>\n

As Alberta’s largest city and home to roughly one-third of the province’s population, Bratt said any campaign hoping to influence the outcome will need to win support in Calgary.<\/p>\n

“There’s no way the separatists can get a majority to have another referendum if they don’t win a majority in Calgary,” Bratt said. “If they can’t get Calgary, they can’t get the province.”<\/p>\n

Bratt said polling to date suggests most Calgarians oppose separation, but with more than four months until referendum day, there is still plenty of time for opinions to shift.<\/p>\n

“Five months is a long time in a campaign, and lots of different things could happen.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Calgary could play a key role in determining the level of support for Alberta separation in the province’s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82395,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[164,9886,51,17,32360,8819,52,32358,8871,24732,32359,18085],"class_list":["post-82394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-calgary","tag-alberta","tag-alberta-ndp","tag-calgary","tag-canada","tag-cbc-calgary","tag-downtown-calgary","tag-edmonton","tag-janet-brown","tag-referendum","tag-separation","tag-swing-voters","tag-united-canada"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82394"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82394\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}