{"id":8307,"date":"2026-04-17T20:22:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T20:22:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/8307\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T20:22:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T20:22:14","slug":"u-s-fertilizer-export-restrictions-could-hit-canadian-farmers-hard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/8307\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. fertilizer export restrictions could hit Canadian farmers hard"},"content":{"rendered":"

A senior executive with the American Farm Bureau Federation <\/a>recently floated an idea that won\u2019t sit well with many Canadian farmers.<\/p>\n

John Newton, vice-president of public policy and economic analysis with the bureau, thinks the United States should strongly consider restricting its fertilizer exports.<\/p>\n

WHY IT MATTERS: Canada is the single largest buyer of U.S. fertilizer exports, accounting for 38 per cent of all U.S. fertilizer exported in 2025. <\/p>\n

\t<\/p>\n

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\u201cIn times like today, you start to wonder, \u2018Do we need strategic reserves\u2019?\u201d he told delegates attending the 2026 Agri-Pulse Ag & Food Policy Summit<\/a> in Washington, D.C. <\/p>\n

He noted that China and other exporting nations do it, so why shouldn\u2019t the U.S. follow suit<\/p>\n

The U.S. ships 10 to 12 million tonnes of fertilizer per year, and any restriction on that flow would land directly on Ontario and Prairie producers already contending with elevated input costs. A strategic reserve policy would give the U.S. government a mechanism to prioritize domestic supply \u2014 cutting export availability at exactly the moments when Canadian demand is highest, such as pre-seeding.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s driving the push<\/p>\n

Newton said he and bureau president Zippy Duvall have met with John Boozman, chair of the U.S. Senate committee on agriculture, where they mentioned the idea of establishing a strategic fertilizer reserve.<\/p>\n

U.S. farmers have been hit hard by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict in Iran. Newton said 49 per cent of the global urea trade moves through that strait, and urea prices in Illinois have jumped US$230 per ton since the closure of the strait. There has not been a two-week price spike of that magnitude in the past 20 years.<\/p>\n

\"AThe closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war is impacting fuel pump prices and urea costs, which have jumped US$230 a tonne.\u00a0Photo: File<\/p>\n

Diesel prices were up $1.09 per gallon in Illinois, the highest monthly jump in history.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis will put a squeeze on farmers when they\u2019re already feeling a squeeze,\u201d said Newton.<\/p>\n

He said he cannot think of a crop American farmers can grow profitably under today\u2019s market conditions. Input costs are up roughly 40 per cent \u2014 about $135 billion \u2014 since 2015, while crop prices have been trending down since 2021-22.<\/p>\n

So how have American farmers been surviving?<\/p>\n

The answer is government support. U.S. farmers received $125 billion in ad hoc payments between 2017 and 2024.<\/p>\n

\u201cContinued ad hoc support is not the solution,\u201d said Newton.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to find another way.\u201d<\/p>\n

How U.S. farmers have stayed afloat<\/p>\n

The short answer is government support. U.S. farmers received $125 billion in ad hoc payments between 2017 and 2024.<\/p>\n

\u201cContinued ad hoc support is not the solution,\u201d said Newton. \u201cWe have to find another way.\u201d<\/p>\n

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act <\/a>is part of that answer, but many of its farm program enhancements don\u2019t take effect until this fall. Farmers will need another ad hoc payment to bridge the gap.<\/p>\n

The long-term play: domestic demand<\/p>\n

The real solution, Newton argued, is to expand domestic demand for U.S. crops, because competition in the export market has become too fierce to win on volume alone.<\/p>\n

Brazilian farmers will likely export more soybeans than American farmers produce in the 2026-27 crop year. On top of that, global population growth is stalling \u2014 China\u2019s population peaked in 2021, the European Union\u2019s in 2020 \u2014 which means export demand is not going to carry U.S. agriculture out of its current difficulties.<\/p>\n

The path forward, in Newton\u2019s view, runs through the U.S. biofuel sector.<\/p>\n

\"AA corn-based ethanol plant in Windsor, Co. Year-round E15 blends could increase corn consumption by the ethanol industry by 50 per cent, the Farm Bureau says. Photo: Reuters<\/p>\n

E15 they key to biofuel expansion<\/p>\n

Year-round consumption of 15 per cent ethanol blends \u2014 known as E15 \u2014 would increase corn consumption by the ethanol industry by 50 per cent, and Newton said approval is closer than it has ever been.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re very, very close on year-round E15,\u201d he said. \u201cCloser than ever.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe focus on rebuilding domestic demand for agriculture is critically important for our success moving forward, given the competitive environment that we\u2019re in and given the tight margin environment we continue to face,\u201d said Newton.<\/p>\n

The urgency is real. The U.S. has lost 199,000 farms over the past 10 years.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we don\u2019t do something to reverse this course, we are going to continue to see more farm operations go out of business,\u201d said Newton.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

You\u2019ll also receive industry insight on why it matters delivered right to your inbox, 6 days a week!<\/p>\n

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