{"id":8329,"date":"2026-04-17T20:36:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T20:36:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/8329\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T20:36:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T20:36:18","slug":"opinion-edmonton-oilers-have-the-skill-to-win-what-about-the-will","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/8329\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: Edmonton Oilers have the skill to win; what about the will?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Before this year\u2019s trade deadline, I offered a polarizing opinion on trading Evan Bouchard<\/a>. It wasn\u2019t, in fact, about Bouchard per se. It was about the Oilers\u2019 penchant of sacrificing defence for offence. It was also about the tendency to wear rose-coloured glasses when evaluating prized, point-scoring defencemen.<\/p>\n

As the Stanley Cup playoffs approach, we now highlight the game-changing interplay between luck, effort, and will to win. Because here\u2019s the uncomfortable truth Oilers fans:<\/p>\n

NHL games often come down to coin flips. Not metaphorically but statistically. Chance plays a larger role than we care to admit. Over seven-game series, scoring chances and shot shares compress, effectively cancelling each other out. Factor in injuries, lucky bounces, missed calls, and broken sticks, and
outcomes swing wildly.<\/p>\n

Teams outshoot opponents 40\u201320 and lose; they get heavily outplayed and win. Alas, randomness and chance factors exert a powerful influence. So where does that leave us? It leaves us with one factor teams can control: Will.<\/p>\n

\u201cWill\u201d in hockey isn\u2019t mystical, it\u2019s measurable and manageable. Just ask sports psychologists. Psychology provides a useful lens here. Doctors Carol Dweck and Angela Duckworth, for example, remind us that talent (the ability to learn things fast) plus effort equals skill, and skill plus more effort equals achievement.<\/p>\n

In other words, effort counts twice. That bears repeating: Effort counts twice in high-end achievement. In-game passion and perseverance (or what psychologists call grit) also counts. In a league where talent gaps are razor-thin and luck looms large, extra effort is the decisive edge. The Oilers have an abundance of high-end talent and skill.<\/p>\n

What separates Cup winners from also-rans, however, are added layers of maximum effort and grit. These two factors show up in defensive intensity, positional play, and a willingness to play a less-glamorous (perhaps even boring) two-way game. In my opinion, winning playoff games isn\u2019t boring, ever, whether it\u2019s 1-0 or 2-1.<\/p>\n

In any event, this is where popular analytics like Corsi and shot metrics mislead. They\u2019re like angler fish lures: bright, seductive, and ultimately distracting from game-deciding factors. Furthermore, focusing on Grade-A chances and expected goals is like watching roulette wheels and divining patterns from, say, the last 10 spins. Ten blacks in a row tells us nothing about the next outcome. Each spin is independent, and so is each shot. There\u2019s no discernable pattern.<\/p>\n

Winning NHL games is best predicted by a small subset of meaningful metrics. On those, the Oilers present a mixed picture this year. They currently rank in the top third of the league in power play percentage and short-handed face-off wins; the middle of the pack in goal differential and blocked shots; and the bottom of the league in goals against, save percentage, penalty kill, and takeaways. These rankings are foreboding, not signs of positive future success.<\/p>\n

Encouragingly, the Oilers have played differently lately, playing a simpler, structured, defensively sound 60-minute two-way game. Winning games 5-2 isn\u2019t about the five, it\u2019s about the two. These quieter, fewer goals-against games suppress chaos and limit opponents\u2019 scoring chances. The Oilers don\u2019t need more scoring chances; they need more takeaways and fewer defensive mistakes. Full stop.<\/p>\n

The Oilers don\u2019t need a miracle to win this year\u2019s Stanley Cup. They do, though, need to refine and, perhaps even quickly perfect, a simple, structured, and relentlessly defensive game. They also need to stabilize lines. Chemistry isn\u2019t interchangeable; it takes time to develop. From a psychological standpoint, constantly putting lines in the blender disrupts team synergy and erodes player confidence.<\/p>\n

The blueprint is there. The numbers, the psychology, and recent play point in the right direction. Game in and game out, the Oilers need to play harder in their own zone than any other; then, they can compete with (and beat) any team in the league.<\/p>\n

We know the way, Oil Country. The only question is whether the Oilers have the will.<\/p>\n

Dr. Bill Hanson is a registered psychologist, CEO of the Psychologists\u2019 Association of Alberta (PAA), and a retired professor of psychology. He competed in three NCAA golf championships and has, since the \u201980s, obsessed about sports performance and analytics. Opinions expressed are his own. He may be reached at flexpsychology.stalbert@gmail.com<\/p>\n

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