{"id":86393,"date":"2026-06-13T01:59:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-13T01:59:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/86393\/"},"modified":"2026-06-13T01:59:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T01:59:13","slug":"the-uneasy-mix-of-diplomacy-and-pressure-in-canadas-iran-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/86393\/","title":{"rendered":"The uneasy mix of diplomacy and pressure in Canada\u2019s Iran policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

The discussion, hosted by Iran International\u2019s Negar Mojtahedi, centered on whether the latest ceasefire in Lebanon marks the end of a war or the beginning of a more dangerous phase: a regional conflict in which Iran increasingly treats attacks on its proxies as attacks on itself.<\/p>\n

A ceasefire that does not end the war<\/p>\n

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Iran\u2019s latest posture toward Lebanon should be viewed against the long arc of the Islamic Republic\u2019s presence there. <\/p>\n

He noted that it has been more than four decades since the first official officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps arrived in Lebanon, making the country a central pillar of Tehran\u2019s regional project.<\/p>\n

\"Alex\"Alex<\/p>\n

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Alex Vatanka<\/p>\n

For years, Vatanka said, Iran used Lebanon and Hezbollah to project power, particularly against Israel. But recent events suggest Tehran may now be entering \u201ca new chapter,\u201d one in which the distinction between Iran and its proxy network becomes more blurred.<\/p>\n

\u201cAn attack on Hezbollah, an attack on the Houthis, an attack on the Hashd al-Shaabi is going to, from now onward, be considered an attack on Iran,\u201d Vatanka said, describing what Iranian officials have presented as a new defense doctrine.<\/p>\n

He cautioned that if taken literally, such a doctrine could mean an open-ended regional confrontation. Any strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, or Iran-backed militias in Iraq could invite a direct Iranian response, turning local battlefields into triggers for wider escalation.<\/p>\n

Vatanka said Tehran appears to be defending its proxy strategy at a moment when many analysts had expected the opposite. After October 7 and the heavy blows inflicted on Iran-backed groups, some believed the Islamic Republic might conclude that its \u201cforward defense\u201d strategy had failed. Instead, he said, influential voices in Tehran appear to be arguing that this is precisely the moment to double down.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s umbrella over Lebanon<\/p>\n

Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute, said Lebanon is now caught between two competing visions of its future.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are two competing realities in Lebanon,\u201d Satloff said. \u201cOne reality is Iran asserting its umbrella to control Lebanon… The other reality is Lebanon and Israel negotiating a security agreement, potentially a peace agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n

That contrast may define the next phase of the conflict. In one scenario, Iran tries to reassert control through Hezbollah and make clear that Lebanon remains part of its regional security architecture. In the other, Lebanon\u2019s government attempts to reclaim sovereignty and pursue security arrangements with Israel, with US backing.<\/p>\n

\"Robert\"Robert<\/p>\n

100%<\/p>\n

Robert Satloff<\/p>\n

Satloff said Iran\u2019s attempt to claim Lebanon under its umbrella has not succeeded, but neither has the effort to fully disarm Hezbollah. He described the challenge as a contest between Iran\u2019s regional power projection and a fragile Lebanese state trying to implement commitments it has made before but repeatedly failed to fulfill.<\/p>\n

He also argued that Iran\u2019s latest direct attack on Israel showed weakness rather than strength. Compared with previous barrages involving hundreds of missiles, he said, the latest attack was limited and intercepted, exposing the degradation of Iran\u2019s capabilities rather than demonstrating strategic confidence.<\/p>\n

Hezbollah down, but not out<\/p>\n

Ambassador David Hale, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute and former US ambassador to Lebanon, Jordan and Pakistan, said one of the most striking changes is Hezbollah\u2019s current vulnerability.<\/p>\n

\u201cHezbollah is so degraded, it’s down but not out, but it’s so degraded that it can’t defend itself,\u201d Hale said. \u201cIran is coming in to defend its proxy. It’s always the other way around.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Hale, that reversal is significant. Hezbollah was long understood as one of Iran\u2019s most powerful deterrent tools, a force capable of threatening Israel and shaping Lebanese politics on Tehran\u2019s behalf. Now, he said, Iran\u2019s direct intervention suggests Hezbollah can no longer perform its traditional role with the same effectiveness.<\/p>\n

\"Ambassador\"Ambassador<\/p>\n

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Ambassador David Hale<\/p>\n

Still, Hale warned against assuming that Lebanon can resolve the Hezbollah question through military action alone. He said sovereignty is not \u201ca light switch,\u201d and disarming Hezbollah will require a political process as well as military pressure.<\/p>\n

Lebanon\u2019s state institutions, he said, remain weak by design, reflecting the country\u2019s sectarian balance. Although President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have shown willingness to engage in a new direction, Hale said the Lebanese Armed Forces are unlikely to simply move into Hezbollah-controlled areas \u201cguns blazing.\u201d A durable solution would require humanitarian support, political alternatives for Lebanon\u2019s Shiite community, and a credible state presence in the south.<\/p>\n

The US as the decisive variable<\/p>\n

The panelists agreed that whether this becomes the region\u2019s new normal depends heavily on Washington.<\/p>\n

Satloff said Iran\u2019s attacks across the region, including against Kuwait, Bahrain and a US base in Jordan, should remind Arab states \u201cwho the real aggressor is\u201d and create an opportunity for President Donald Trump to rally regional partners against Tehran. But he warned that the moment could be lost if Washington quickly returns to seeking any deal it can get.<\/p>\n

Hale said the United States should rely less on public rhetoric and more on sustained pressure. He argued that Tehran understands violence and intimidation, and that Washington must be prepared to respond with persistent military, economic and political pressure.<\/p>\n

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But the panel also raised doubts about the coherence of US strategy. Vatanka said he was struck by how much planning appeared to have gone into the military side of the confrontation, and how little into the political endgame. The stated US goal, he noted, has shifted from encouraging Iranians to challenge the regime to narrower objectives such as the nuclear file, trade and the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

That uncertainty may be what makes the current moment so dangerous. A ceasefire may reduce the intensity of the fighting, but if Iran continues to defend its proxies as extensions of itself, Israel continues to strike perceived threats, Arab states are drawn into the line of fire, and Washington alternates between pressure and dealmaking, the region could remain trapped in a cycle of calibrated escalation.<\/p>\n

Audience questions turn to Washington\u2019s endgame<\/p>\n

The audience Q&A shifted the discussion from battlefield dynamics to whether Washington has a political strategy to match its military pressure on Tehran.<\/p>\n

Asked about regime change, Hale warned against raising expectations among Iranians without being prepared to follow through. <\/p>\n

Satloff said Washington should instead invest in tools that prepare the ground for change, including stronger broadcasting to Iranians, internet access, and visa or asylum pathways for dissidents. <\/p>\n

Vatanka said the deeper problem remains the lack of a coherent US strategy toward Iran.<\/p>\n

\"\"\"\"<\/p>\n

100%<\/p>\n

The exchange underscored a central point of the townhall: without a political endgame, military pressure alone may leave the region trapped in a cycle of ceasefires, strikes and retaliation.<\/p>\n

For now, the experts suggested, the Middle East is not clearly moving from war to peace. It may instead be settling into a volatile gray zone: a ceasefire era in which the guns never fully fall silent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The discussion, hosted by Iran International\u2019s Negar Mojtahedi, centered on whether the latest ceasefire in Lebanon marks the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":86394,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[17,200,11046,11042,11039,11040,11043,11037,11041,11038,11044,587,11045],"class_list":["post-86393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-canada","tag-iran","tag-iran-and-china","tag-iran-covid","tag-iran-economy","tag-iran-government","tag-iran-media-iran-and-the-united-states","tag-iran-news","tag-iran-nuclear","tag-iran-politics","tag-iran-us","tag-middle-east","tag-us-sanctions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86393\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}