Federal efforts to curb immigration are continuing to weigh on Canada\u2019s population, which declined by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026, according to initial estimates from Statistics Canada \u2014 a shift that reframes recent weak economic data.<\/p>\n
The population was estimated at 41.4 million in the first quarter, a decline of 55,025 from the start of the year.<\/p>\n
In a research note, National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF) said the declining population should help calm concerns about a \u201ctechnical recession\u201d since per capita GDP growth remained positive in the first quarter and is set to look even better in the second quarter data.<\/p>\n
Additionally, the lower population puts a different shine on weak hiring numbers, NBF said, as flat employment numbers in a smaller population suggests that \u201cjob market slack has stopped accumulating.\u201d<\/p>\n
A declining population is also disinflationary, it noted, with housing costs likely to decline amid weaker demand. As core inflation eases, \u201cthe odds of a quick pivot to tighter monetary policy are low,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n
The demographic decline was led by a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs), which fell by 117,879 people in the quarter, Statistics Canada reported.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the number of permanent immigrants fell by 20.2%, compared with the first quarter of 2025, which Statistics Canada said is in line with the latest government targets.<\/p>\n
The number of deaths also outpaced births in the quarter, resulting in negative \u201cnatural\u201d population growth (-155).<\/p>\n
The federal statistical agency noted that it expects larger-than-usual revisions to NPR numbers when the first quarter numbers are updated in September, \u201cgiven the rapidly evolving context and shifting international migration policies.\u201d<\/p>\n
Among other things, it said the number of NPR permit extensions has increased in recent months, and the time required to process these permits has increased.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Federal efforts to curb immigration are continuing to weigh on Canada\u2019s population, which declined by 0.1% in the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92634,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[17,29480,30354,4062,4358,2056,11882,6702,34837,2380,28067,1672],"class_list":["post-92633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-canada","tag-economic-indicators","tag-employment","tag-immigrants","tag-immigration","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-nbf","tag-population","tag-recession","tag-statistics-canada"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92633\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}