For months now, Alberta business groups and labour unions have been predicting an economic meltdown in the province while the spectre of separation hangs over Albertans\u2019 heads.<\/p>\n
Doug Griffiths, who is president of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce (and who was once one of the reddest Tory ministers in the government of red Tory premier Alison Redford), has been leading the surge of fearmongering.<\/p>\n
Earlier this month, Griffith insisted hundreds of businesses were already withdrawing investments from Alberta, or at least delaying investment decisions because of the turmoil brought on by the separatist debate.<\/p>\n
The risk of separatism is \u201calready beginning to have consequences,\u201d Griffith told Postmedia after he had returned from a trip to Ottawa where he sought to assess the debate\u2019s impact on federal cabinet members, MPs, senators and other officials.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s \u201ca distraction from the real issues around infrastructure investment, business growth, and the potential Edmonton has to be an international city,\u201d Griffin claimed. Talk of separatism, according to the Chamber CEO, is reducing \u201cAlberta\u2019s opportunity to lead Canada in economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n
No it\u2019s not, at least not yet.<\/p>\n
According to a June economic forecast published by ATB Financial, Alberta is still leading the country in economic growth, job creation and in-migration from other provinces.<\/p>\n
And it is expected to lead in all of those categories through the rest of 2026 and all of 2027.<\/p>\n
Doesn\u2019t sound to me like separatist talk (and that\u2019s all it is for now \u2014 talk) is killing the province\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n
Related<\/p>\n
And if the separatists must stop insisting independence would be quick, cheap and easy, than the pro-Confederation forces have to stop insisting the current debate is tanking our economy.<\/p>\n
Neither side does voters any favours by deceiving themselves.<\/p>\n
According to ATB, under the best-case scenario, Alberta\u2019s economy will grow by 3.4 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent next year. Even if that turns out to be unrealistic, Alberta can expect 2.6 and 2.4 per cent growth.<\/p>\n
The national economy is expected to grow by about 0.9 per cent this year and maybe 1.6 per cent next.<\/p>\n
Could that change if the separatists win the referendum this fall and the province is forced to hold a for-real referendum on whether Alberta stays or goes? For sure.<\/p>\n
And if the province is made to hold a simple \u201cstay or leave\u201d referendum in the future, could a \u201cleave\u201d vote cause significant economic dislocation? Without a doubt.<\/p>\n
The U.K. economy didn\u2019t suffer much until after the Brexit vote had been won by the \u201cLeave\u201d campaign over the \u201cRemainers.\u201d Then in fairly short order it dove six to eight per cent.<\/p>\n
Prior to the election of the Parti Quebecois in 1976, Montreal had been the financial capital of Canada. Within four years of the separatist win, at least a 125,000 people had left the province and major financial headquarters \u2014 Sun Life, Royal Bank and even the Bank of Montreal \u2014 had shifted their headquarters to Toronto.<\/p>\n
That is less likely to happen in Alberta because what attracts investment here is oil, and the oil can\u2019t be moved. But that\u2019s not to say there would be no impact on aerospace, data centres and a host of other high-tech businesses.<\/p>\n
One of the pleasant asides from the ATB report is that for the first time in a long time, Alberta\u2019s robust job growth is being driven more by non-oil jobs than oil jobs.<\/p>\n
People are moving to Alberta for more than just oil and gas.<\/p>\n
You\u2019ve probably seen the headlines that Canada population has shrunk for three straight quarters. Over the past year, the national population shrank by 0.5 per cent. However, over the last 12 months, Alberta\u2019s population grew by 0.9 per cent.<\/p>\n
People, particularly from other provinces, are moving here for quality of life, affordability and close proximity to plenty of recreation.<\/p>\n
That could change if the province ever votes for real to leave Canada, but it hasn\u2019t changed yet.<\/p>\n
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