{"id":97637,"date":"2026-06-21T16:36:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T16:36:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/97637\/"},"modified":"2026-06-21T16:36:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T16:36:12","slug":"federal-liberal-lead-holds-steady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/97637\/","title":{"rendered":"Federal Liberal Lead Holds Steady"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n June 21, 2026 <\/p>\n

This latest wave of Abacus Data\u2019s federal political tracking finds little evidence that the shifts we observed earlier this month have continued.<\/p>\n

After a survey two weeks ago showed declining optimism about the country, lower government approval, softer ratings for Prime Minister Mark Carney, and a narrowing Liberal lead, this latest wave suggests the drop we measured last wave hasn\u2019t continued.<\/p>\n

Government approval has edged slightly higher. Carney\u2019s personal ratings are unchanged. The Liberal vote share remains almost identical to where it was two weeks ago. Canadians are marginally more optimistic about the direction of the country than they were at the beginning of June.<\/p>\n

Taken together, the data suggest that the deterioration in public opinion we observed earlier this month has not accelerated. Nor has it fully reversed. Instead, the electorate may have settled into a relatively stable equilibrium.<\/p>\n

This is important because the previous survey raised questions about whether the government\u2019s momentum had been interrupted by growing economic concerns, debate around energy policy, and broader uncertainty about Canada\u2019s economic outlook. While those concerns have not disappeared, neither have they produced a sustained decline in support for the government.<\/p>\n

Note, most of this survey was completed prior to news about a new deal reached between the United States and Iran and most of the interviews we completed prior to the G7 meetings in France.<\/p>\n

For now, the political landscape remains remarkably similar to what it was two weeks ago: a Liberal government with positive approval ratings, a Prime Minister who remains substantially more popular than his principal rival, and an opposition that continues to struggle to convert dissatisfaction into broader electoral support.<\/p>\n

Direction of the Country: Optimism Edges Higher but Mood Remains Mixed<\/p>\n

Today, 42% of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction while 44% say it is on the wrong track.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That represents a modest improvement from two weeks ago when 40% felt Canada was headed in the right direction and 45% believed it was on the wrong track.<\/p>\n

Views of the broader world remain overwhelmingly pessimistic. Only 13% believe the world is headed in the right direction while 74% say it is on the wrong track. Perceptions of the United States are similarly negative, with just 14% saying it is headed in the right direction compared with 77% who say it is on the wrong track.<\/p>\n

The gap between perceptions of Canada and the rest of the world therefore remains substantial. Canadians continue to feel considerably better about their own country than they do about international developments.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Older Canadians remain the most optimistic. Half of Canadians aged 60 and over believe the country is headed in the right direction compared with only 35% of those aged 18 to 29. Liberal voters continue to be overwhelmingly positive about the country\u2019s trajectory while only 21% of Conservative voters share that view.<\/p>\n

The broader implication is that while optimism has recovered slightly from the decline measured earlier this month, Canadians remain divided about the country\u2019s direction and far from uniformly positive about the future.<\/p>\n

Cost of Living Continues to Dominate the Issue Agenda<\/p>\n

The cost of living remains by far the most important issue facing the country.<\/p>\n

Two-thirds of Canadians (66%) rank it among the top three issues facing Canada today, unchanged from two weeks ago. The economy follows at 39%, healthcare at 35%, housing affordability at 34%, and Donald Trump and his administration at 31%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

What is notable is how little the issue landscape has changed.<\/p>\n

Despite continuing debate about economic conditions, inflation, housing, and international developments, Canadians remain focused on essentially the same priorities they have identified for months.<\/p>\n

The Liberals continue to hold advantages among voters focused on healthcare, climate change, inequality, Indigenous reconciliation, housing affordability, and concerns about Donald Trump. The Conservatives continue to lead among voters focused on immigration, crime and public safety, and threats posed by China and Russia.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Perhaps most importantly, the Liberals continue to remain competitive among voters focused on economic concerns. Among those who rank the economy as a top issue, the Liberals hold a narrow advantage over the Conservatives. Among those focused on the cost of living, the Liberal advantage also persists.<\/p>\n

Federal Government Approval Rebounds Slightly<\/p>\n

Approval of the federal government led by Mark Carney has improved modestly since our previous survey.<\/p>\n

Today, 55% approve of the job the government is doing while 30% disapprove. Compared with two weeks ago, approval is up three points while disapproval is down one.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Those numbers place government approval back near the levels recorded throughout much of the spring and suggest that the decline measured earlier this month may have been more of a pause than the beginning of a sustained downward trend.<\/p>\n

Importantly, approval remains well above disapproval across most demographic groups and regions outside the Conservative heartland.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Since becoming Prime Minister, Carney has generally benefited from Canadians viewing his government as a source of stability during a period of global uncertainty. This latest survey suggests that perception remains largely intact.<\/p>\n

Carney Maintains Advantage Over Poilievre<\/p>\n

Mark Carney\u2019s personal ratings are virtually unchanged from two weeks ago.<\/p>\n

Today, 51% of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister while 30% have a negative impression, giving him a net favourability rating of +21.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That is identical to the net score recorded earlier this month.<\/p>\n

Carney continues to perform especially well in Quebec, Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and among older Canadians. His net impression stands at +38 in Quebec and +36 among Canadians aged 60 and over.<\/p>\n

Pierre Poilievre\u2019s numbers have also changed very little.<\/p>\n

Today, 38% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 44% have a negative impression, giving him a net score of -6.<\/p>\n

The key story is therefore stability rather than movement.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Neither leader has experienced a meaningful shift in public standing over the past two weeks. Carney remains substantially more popular than Poilievre, while Poilievre continues to maintain strong support among Conservative voters but faces challenges expanding his appeal beyond that coalition.<\/p>\n

NDP leader Avi Lewis also remains largely unchanged, with a net impression score of -8.<\/p>\n

The leadership environment today looks remarkably similar to what it did at the beginning of June.<\/p>\n

Liberals Continue to Lead Nationally<\/p>\n

If an election were held today, the Liberals would receive 45% of the committed vote compared with 37% for the Conservatives. The NDP stands at 9%, the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois at 6%, and the Greens at 2%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That gives the Liberals an eight-point national lead.<\/p>\n

Compared with our previous survey, both the Liberals and Conservatives are up one point while the NDP has declined by two.<\/p>\n

The Liberals continue to lead in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada while the Conservatives maintain commanding advantages in Alberta and Saskatchewan\/Manitoba.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Among Canadians aged 60 and over, the Liberals lead by 23 points. The Conservatives remain more competitive among voters aged 30 to 59, but have yet to establish a clear advantage nationally among middle-aged voters.<\/p>\n

The Liberal accessible voter pool also remains larger than the Conservative universe. Today, 58% of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal compared with 49% who would consider voting Conservative.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That remains one of the most important structural advantages available to the governing party and helps explain why the Liberal lead has proven relatively durable despite fluctuations in public mood.<\/p>\n

The Upshot<\/p>\n

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:<\/p>\n

\u201cTwo weeks ago, our data suggested the political environment had become more competitive after several months in which virtually every indicator moved in the Liberal government\u2019s favour.<\/p>\n

This survey suggests that shift has not continued.<\/p>\n

The most important finding is not any individual number. It is the remarkable stability we see across almost every major indicator. Government approval is largely unchanged. Mark Carney\u2019s personal ratings are unchanged. The Liberal lead remains essentially where it was two weeks ago. Optimism about the country has improved slightly but not dramatically.<\/p>\n

Taken together, these results suggest Canadians have settled into a more stable political mood.<\/p>\n

Importantly, this does not mean the Liberals have regained all of the momentum they enjoyed earlier this spring. The surge in optimism we measured after Carney became Prime Minister has clearly levelled off. But neither is there evidence of a sustained deterioration in the government\u2019s position.<\/p>\n

For the Conservatives, the challenge remains the same. While dissatisfaction with government exists, it has not translated into a broader shift in voting intentions. Pierre Poilievre\u2019s numbers remain largely unchanged and the party continues to trail nationally by eight points.<\/p>\n

For the Liberals, the good news is that their coalition remains intact. Government approval remains positive. Carney remains more popular than his principal rival. The party continues to lead nationally and maintains advantages on many of the issues Canadians care most about.<\/p>\n

Politics often changes when several indicators begin moving in the same direction at the same time.<\/p>\n

Right now, that isn\u2019t happening.<\/p>\n

Instead, what we see is a political environment that remains Liberal-leaning, relatively stable, and largely unchanged from where it stood two weeks ago.\u201d<\/p>\n

Methodology<\/p>\n

The survey was conducted with 3,080 Canadian adults from June 12 to 17, 2026.<\/p>\n

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.<\/p>\n

The data were weighted according to census figures to ensure the sample matched the Canadian population.<\/p>\n

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +\/- 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n

Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.<\/p>\n

Abacus Data conducts national public opinion research to better understand the attitudes, priorities, and expectations of Canadians. This survey is part of our ongoing federal political tracking study measuring public opinion, political preferences, leadership evaluations, and issue priorities across the country.<\/p>\n

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

About Abacus Data<\/p>\n

We are\u00a0Canada\u2019s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America\u2019s most respected and influential brands and organizations.<\/p>\n

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.<\/p>\n

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.<\/p>\n

Our record speaks for itself:\u00a0we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.<\/p>\n

Contact us<\/a>\u00a0with any questions.<\/p>\n

Find out more about how we can help your organization by\u00a0downloading<\/a>\u00a0our corporate profile and service offering.<\/p>\n

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