The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) examines how Russia could use another temporary moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure to falsely portray itself as ready to make concessions during Geneva talks.

Ukraine’s Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerov, stated on February 14 that Kyiv would raise the issue of another temporary pause in strikes within the trilateral talks with the United States and Russia in Geneva.

According to ISW, Russia previously used temporary moratoriums on energy strikes in March–April 2025 and in January–February 2026 to stockpile drones and rockets for further devastating strikes. The Kremlin agreed to a moratorium on strikes against some Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities in January–February 2026 only after inflicting a serious blow to Ukraine’s energy grid, the report says.

“Russia has previously used temporary moratoriums on energy strikes in March–April 2025 and in January–February 2026 to stockpile drones and rockets for further devastating strikes. The Kremlin agreed to a moratorium on strikes against some Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities in January–February 2026 only after inflicting serious damage on Ukraine’s energy grid,” the report says.

– Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

ISW Analysis and the Geneva Context

Analysts emphasize that Moscow may try to present compliance with a short-term moratorium as a significant concession, even though the Russian military is likely to use the pause days to stockpile weapons for larger strike packages.

ISW also notes that Russian forces have degraded Ukraine’s energy system, causing serious energy-supply problems even when strikes are paused. During the previous moratorium in January–February 2025, the energy system suffered significant outages due to long-lasting damage from earlier strikes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on February 14 that Russian strikes had damaged every power plant in Ukraine, and the country could again face energy-supply problems during a future ceasefire.

The report also notes that Russian officials are unlikely to back away from their initial demands during the February 17–18 Geneva trilateral talks, as the Kremlin has shown commitment to achieving these goals. The Ukrainian delegation had arrived in Geneva the evening before.

Secretary of the NSDC Rustem Umerov on the evening of February 16 expressed hope for constructive work and substantive meetings on security and humanitarian issues – to advance toward a dignified and lasting peace. Earlier, during remarks to the press in Munich, he said Ukraine planned to discuss the issue of an energy ceasefire at the Geneva talks.

January 23–24 and February 4–5 in Abu Dhabi saw preliminary talks between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the United States, on ways to end the war; no significant breakthrough was achieved. At the summary of the meeting on February 5, the sides agreed to an exchange of prisoners of war – the first step in the last five months.

“A focus on creating the conditions for a durable peace”

– Steve Vitkoff, Special Envoy to the President of the United States

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio summarized the talks on February 4, noting that the list of outstanding issues between Ukraine and Russia has been reduced, but the most difficult positions remain. In January, Dmitry Peskov stressed the importance of the territorial issue within the so-called Anchorage Formula; the formula, according to Reuters, envisions Russia’s control over Donbas and a freezing of the front, but the Kremlin has not disclosed details.

In December, Zelensky said that the question of possible territorial solutions should be decided by the Ukrainian people “in the form of elections or in the format of a referendum,” and Kyiv’s position on the territories remains unchanged.