Twice in two knockout games, Argentina has gotten a scare. In the Round of 32, the Albiceleste played out a thriller with Cape Verde, only managing to win courtesy of a 111th-minute own goal. A few days later, in the Round of 16, they came even closer to falling to African opposition, going behind 2-0 to Egypt before Lionel Messi and Enzo Fernández rescued them for a 3-2 win marred by VAR controversy.

In tonight’s 9 p.m. ET quarterfinal, Argentina will face its stiffest test yet. Switzerland out-lasted Algeria and Colombia to reach this stage for the first time since 1954, and by both World Ranking (No. 14) and ELO Ratings (No. 11), Nati are the best opponent that the Albiceleste will have faced this competition. The winner will go on to face either England or Norway in the semifinals; those teams will play earlier this afternoon.

Argentina is a -145 favorite to win in regular time (-310 to advance to the semifinals) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Switzerland is +450 (+240 to advance). There are +255 odds that the tie will require extra time.

Below, I’ll break down this pivotal contest and provide my favorite bet.

Argentina vs. Switzerland Best Bet:

Argentina Second Half Moneyline (+100): Switzerland is the toughest test that Argentina has faced yet, but the Albiceleste are simply deeper, especially with two of Nati’s best wing options, Rubén Vargas and Johan Manzambi, both hobbled. Argentina’s experience and fitness will allow it to pull out a late winner again.

Argentina vs. Switzerland prediction, pick

Both teams have benefited from favorable draws through the tournament so far. The Albiceleste drew a pretty friendly group overall, and as fantastic as the Blue Sharks and the Pharaohs were as underdog stories, they don’t have as much of a World Cup pedigree as some of the teams that other contenders have faced (for instance, England had to beat Mexico in its own capital, Spain had to eliminate Portugal, and Morocco had to take down the Netherlands). Similarly, Nati were drawn into a group with Canada, the weakest Pot 1 nation, and they managed to top that group to earn a Round of 32 tie against a third-place side in the Fennecs and a Round of 16 matchup against a Colombia team that was extremely wasteful with its chances. Both teams’ true colors will come out in this match more than in any other.

Argentina is a deep and talented team, but still, it relies heavily on Lionel Messi to create chances. The Rosario native has eight goals and one assist this tournament to lead the Golden Boot race, vaulting himself into the all-time lead for both goals and assists in tournament history. Thanks to Messi’s heroics, the Albiceleste have managed to win despite their other A-list stars, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez, not producing very well individually. To be fair, Argentina has worked together well, completing passes at the highest rate and attempting the most through balls to produce the fourth-most expected goals per match on the fifth-best conversion rate. The Albiceleste have also been exceptionally strong on set pieces, and, by and large, they’ve avoided damaging mistakes. Defensively, however, Argentina has been more gettable; the fact that it has allowed the second-fewest expected goals and the fifth-fewest touches in the box per match slightly belies how beatable it’s been from the wings and on the rare fast-break opportunities it allows. Combining ground and aerial duels, the Albiceleste have won fewer than half of their duels, and they’ve neither forced many high turnovers nor converted them into shot attempts. Emiliano Martínez is still a trustworthy shot-stopper, but he hasn’t had a great tournament, ranking 12th-to-last among qualified goalkeepers in goals prevented per 90 minutes.

Switzerland won’t make it easy, but its chances are heavily dependent on the health of Johan Manzambi, who recorded three goals and two assists in Nati’s first four matches before sitting against Los Cafeteros due to injury. Without the versatile Manzambi’s creativity, Switzerland struggled to produce much against Colombia, and Breel Embolo had his quietest game of the tournament. At full strength, though, Nati has a decent team; they’ve managed to produce the 12th-most expected goals per match, more than fellow quarterfinalists Morocco, and they’ve produced high-quality shots, ranking third in expected goals per shot. Switzerland has also been pretty aggressive, ranking third in through balls per match. Its calling card is its defense; Nati has allowed just 0.87 expected goals per match and fewer shots per match than either England or Norway, and they’ve won the majority of both their ground and aerial duels. Additionally, Switzerland has been much better at forcing high turnovers, and it has been relatively strong at defending set pieces. Perhaps most critically, Nati start one of the few men that can match up to even Martínez at his best: Borussia Dortmund’s Gregor Kobel.

Argentina might get off to a slow start like it did against Egypt, but I think the Albiceleste will pull through in the end. The chances that Switzerland has allowed have been fairly high-quality, as it’s given up shots in the box at the eighth-highest rate, and Messi is far too individually brilliant not to capitalize eventually. Additionally, Nati operate at a more plodding pace and have completed just 12.5% of their crosses, so they’re not well-suited to take advantage of Argentina’s mediocre wing-backs without Manzambi. Switzerland also doesn’t have as much depth, especially if Manzambi, Rubén Vargas, and Djibril Sow remain unable to play a full 90 or 120 minutes. Unless both Manzambi and Vargas are fully healthy and attacking from the wings and Kobel produces the performance of a lifetime, the Albiceleste should advance to the semifinals for the second straight World Cup.

Best Bet: Argentina Moneyline Second Half (+100)

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