Glencore H1 2026 Marketing EBIT Forecast: $3.3B Amid Iran War Volatility - News and Statistics

Aug 1, 2026

Glencore has announced expectations of approximately $3.3 billion in adjusted earnings before interest and tax from its marketing division for the first half of the year, according to its half-year production report released on Wednesday. The company, referenced by OilPrice.com, attributed the projected profit to extreme market volatility stemming from the Iran war, which generated windfall earnings for energy commodity traders.

Record-Breaking Performance

The trading giant did not specify the exact contribution from energy trading in the report, but it is expected to provide a breakdown in its detailed half-year earnings next week. The first-half figure alone has already surpassed the company’s full-year marketing adjusted EBIT of $2.9 billion recorded for 2025.

If energy markets continue to experience sharp price swings in the coming months, the current trading profit trajectory could make this the company’s best year ever. Glencore’s previous record for full-year marketing EBIT was set in 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy flows and sent oil prices to $120 per barrel. That year, the marketing division posted a record $6.4 billion in adjusted EBIT, a 73% increase from the prior year, driven primarily by the energy departments successfully navigating extreme market imbalances, volatility, and dislocations across crude oil, LNG, refined products, coal, and logistics infrastructure.

Broader Industry Impact

The benefits of the market turmoil are not limited to trading houses. Integrated oil and gas majors with strong trading divisions have also gained from the volatility since the start of the Iran war. Shell, for instance, expects to have booked significantly higher oil and LNG trading results in the second quarter, as the conflict drove extreme volatility in energy commodity markets. Shell is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on July 30.

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