Credit: NOAA/NCEP GFS
Australia’s snow forecast turns stormy late Sunday, with two windy waves through Thursday favoring the mainland Alps. Timing confidence is stronger than confidence in exact amounts, but the best accumulation should land in Victoria and the higher New South Wales terrain, while Tasmania sees only a light top-up. Lift service is active at the mainland resorts and Ben Lomond, although several networks are partial; Mount Mawson’s latest official report still has its tows on hold. Snow starts wet and heavy, improves as levels fall, and comes with enough wind to threaten exposed lift operations.
Saturday stays mostly dry, then precursor showers develop Sunday before the first wave peaks Sunday night into Monday. The guidance converges on that timing and on snow levels falling from roughly 1,700-1,900 meters at onset to 800-1,300 meters by Monday, but it diverges on intensity. Early SLRs near 2-7 mean wet, heavy snow before ratios improve toward 7-11, producing denser to moderate-quality snow. All guidance is windy, although peak gust forecasts vary, with 90-140 km/h plausible on exposed ridges. Partial lift networks may shrink further during the strongest wind.
Snow showers ease Tuesday before a colder reload develops Tuesday night and continues through Wednesday, tapering Thursday. The guidance again converges on the wave’s timing, snow levels generally near 1,000-1,500 meters, and disruptive ridge wind, but diverges on snowfall intensity, especially in New South Wales. SLRs of roughly 4-11 favor mostly dense snow, with some improvement in the colder bursts. Exposed gusts may again reach 90-145 km/h. Confidence is highest from Sunday evening through Thursday afternoon, when mainland totals generally reach 6-52 cm, compared with 3-5 cm in Tasmania.
From Thursday night through Tuesday, the guidance converges on a mostly dry pattern with no meaningful follow-up storm. It diverges only on isolated flurries and on how quickly strong ridge gusts fade Thursday and Friday, then broadly agrees on lighter wind for the weekend. Subfreezing nights and milder afternoons should create firmer early turns followed by some softening on sunny or lower slopes, while the fresh midweek snow remains best preserved higher up.
Australia Snow Forecast Resort Totals (Sun Aug 09 – Thu Aug 13)