Glencore is facing a widening gap between how management has characterized its exposure to iron ore trader Radiant World and how large that exposure could be, with Reuters sources placing the amount at between $500 million and $800 million days after CEO Gary Nagle described it as “not material.”
Two people familiar with the matter told Reuters that Glencore had the largest exposure to potential financial problems at Radiant World, with the amount estimated at $500 million to $800 million. Glencore declined to comment on those estimates.
The company’s own 2025 audited accounts set $500 million as group audit materiality, based on 1.5% of net assets.
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Based on Glencore’s first-half results, the reported gross exposure would equal roughly 15% to 24% of the marketing division’s $3.3 billion adjusted EBIT, about 5% to 8% of group adjusted EBITDA of $10.12 billion, and approximately 11% to 18% of the company’s $4.41 billion first-half net income.
Nagle previously confirmed to Reuters that Glencore had taken a provision connected to Radiant World and had “stopped doing any new business with Radiant,” while existing contracts and outstanding items were being reviewed. He declined to disclose the size of either the provision or the underlying exposure.
Glencore’s first-half report, released the same week and covering the period through June 30, does not identify Radiant World by name or provide a counterparty-specific provision figure. The company reported $174.43 billion of revenue, up 49% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA rose 86% to $10.12 billion.
Reuters cited another person familiar with the situation who said Glencore had been assessing potential Radiant-related losses for some time and had already set aside funds and written off some exposure. According to that source, the actions reflected existing commercial and credit concerns rather than being triggered solely by the more recent document allegations. Glencore did not confirm those details publicly.
The potential exposure also comes from a business in which Glencore has been expanding volumes. The company sold 95.4 million metric tons of iron ore through its marketing operations in 2025, up 28% from 74.6 million tons in 2024.
Radiant itself says it trades more than 20 million tons of iron ore annually, while industry sources cited by Reuters estimate its current volume is closer to 75 million tons a year, worth more than $7 billion at prevailing prices.
The scrutiny is also no longer limited to Glencore. Vitol Group and Cargill stopped trading with Radiant following concerns over documents the trader allegedly provided to banks, according to Bloomberg reporting carried by Reuters. Radiant rejected those allegations and said it continued to operate normally and comply with legal and commercial standards.
The pressure expanded into financing relationships last week. Reuters reported, citing Bloomberg, that Deutsche Bank and KBC froze some Radiant World accounts in Singapore, while other banks suspended credit lines. Rio Tinto and Vale were also reported to have removed Radiant from their approved-customer lists. Radiant has continued to dispute the underlying allegations.
Separate creditor exposures have begun emerging. Intesa Sanpaolo confirmed to Reuters that it had €200 million, or roughly $230 million at the exchange rate cited at the time, of exposure to Radiant and had booked provisions that left the position largely covered. A source told Reuters that Jefferies Financial Group had about $300 million of trade-finance exposure through its Point Bonita fund, while expecting repayment and taking no provision at that stage.
Information for this briefing was found via the sources and the companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.