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After a strong five year run, UBS Group is still screening as undervalued, with the current share price of US$42.72 sitting below an intrinsic value estimate from the Excess Returns model and supported by relatively cheap earnings multiples.
UBS Group has delivered a 217.1% total return over five years, which puts extra focus on whether the recent share price now fully reflects its fundamentals.
The key support for the current valuation is the market’s view that UBS Group can keep turning its capital base into earnings efficiently. Any setback in profitability or higher capital requirements may reduce the upside implied by intrinsic value models.
UBS Group scores 4 out of 6 on our broader valuation checks, which is a mixed picture rather than a clear bargain or clear overvaluation. You can see that breakdown in more detail at 4 out of 6.
The stock’s next move may depend on whether UBS Group’s current price gap to the intrinsic value estimate reflects genuine mispricing or simply accounts for the execution and regulatory risks that come with its earnings profile.
Is UBS Group Still Cheap on Excess Returns?
The Excess Returns model evaluates how efficiently UBS Group converts its equity base into profits above its estimated cost of capital. For UBS Group, the inputs indicate a company that is currently generating returns on equity above what investors are assumed to require.
The model uses a Book Value of CHF29.12 per share and a Stable EPS estimate of CHF4.57 per share, with those earnings based on an average Return on Equity of 13.74%. Compared with a Cost of Equity of CHF1.96 per share, this produces an Excess Return of CHF2.61 per share and a Stable Book Value projection of CHF33.28 per share. On this basis, the intrinsic value is estimated at roughly CHF66 per share, which is above the current price of around CHF42.72. That difference suggests that, within this framework, UBS Group currently screens as undervalued by about 35.5%.
On the Excess Returns model, UBS Group stock currently screens as clearly undervalued relative to its estimated intrinsic value.
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests UBS Group is undervalued by 35.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 276 more high quality undervalued stocks.
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UBSG Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026
Is UBS Group Still Cheap on Earnings?
The P/E ratio is a natural fit for UBS Group because earnings are central to how investors judge large capital markets businesses. UBS Group currently trades on about 17.2x earnings, which is slightly above the Capital Markets industry average of 16.0x but just below the broader peer average of 17.7x.
The tailored fair P/E for UBS Group, which reflects its margins, size and risk profile, is estimated at 23.6x. That is meaningfully higher than the current 17.2x multiple, so the stock trades at a discount compared with what this framework suggests investors might typically pay for its earnings power.
On the P/E multiple, UBS Group stock appears undervalued relative to the earnings level the fair ratio would imply.
SWX:UBSG P/E Ratio as at Aug 2026
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
The UBS Group Narrative: What Would Justify Today’s Price?
Simply Wall St Narratives for UBS Group pick up where the valuation work above leaves off. They set out the specific paths for UBS Group’s future growth, margins and earnings that would need to play out for the stock to be worth materially more or less than today’s price. Where a single ratio or model produces one figure, they instead clarify the underlying expectations so you can track over time whether those assumptions continue to hold. These sit on Simply Wall St’s Community page and give you a clearer view of what the current numbers are implicitly assuming about UBS Group’s next few years.
Community views on UBS Group are split between those who see disciplined execution as the key upside and those who focus on capital and regulatory constraints.
Bull case: roughly fairly valued
“Integration of Credit Suisse and investment in digital infrastructure are enhancing efficiency, scalability, and profitability, boosting margins and long-term earnings potential…”
Read the full Bull Case to see why UBS Group could be undervalued
Bear case: 26% overvalued
“The proposed overhaul of Swiss bank capital regulation would require UBS to hold at least $24 billion, and potentially up to $42 billion, in additional capital at the parent bank and group level, materially depressing returns on equity and limiting the company’s ability to distribute capital to shareholders over the long term…”
Read the full Bear Case to see why UBS Group could be overvalued
Do you think there’s more to the story for UBS Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
The Bottom Line
UBS Group screens as undervalued on both the Excess Returns intrinsic value estimate and its current P/E multiple, although the broader valuation checks remain mixed rather than emphatically cheap. The key question is whether the company can keep converting its capital base into earnings at the levels implied in the intrinsic value work without running into profitability or capital constraint setbacks. For investors, the crux of the debate is whether the current discount reflects a genuine opportunity or a fair price for the execution and regulatory risks around UBS Group’s business model.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include UBSG.SW.
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