UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,100, up from a prior projection of 7,900, signaling confidence that the current bull market has further room to run through 2027. The revised forecast implies roughly 6% upside from Thursday’s closing level of 7,641.

The Swiss bank also lifted its mid-2027 target for the benchmark index to 8,400 from 8,200, according to strategists led by David Lefkowitz. The upward revisions were driven primarily by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, particularly in semiconductors, technology hardware, and energy.

Earnings Estimates Climb Across the Board

UBS increased its S&P 500 earnings per share forecast to $350 for 2026, up from $335 previously, while the 2027 estimate now stands at $400, up from $375. Those figures represent annual earnings growth of 25% and 14%, respectively.

The strategists emphasized that the earnings upgrades extended well beyond technology, touching virtually every segment of the market. The breadth of the revisions reflects an exceptionally strong second-quarter earnings season and improving conditions in more cyclical parts of the economy.

MetricPrevious EstimateNew EstimateImplied Growth2026 EPS$335$35025%2027 EPS$375$40014%December 2026 S&P 500 target7,9008,100—June 2027 S&P 500 target8,2008,400—

Note: Figures reflect UBS Global Wealth Management projections as of August 2026.

Three Pillars Supporting the Bull Case

UBS maintained its “attractive” rating on U.S. equities, citing three fundamental factors underpinning the ongoing rally.

The first is durable economic expansion. The bank pointed to strengthening trends in cyclical segments, including manufacturing momentum and employment gains in construction. These indicators suggest the economy is absorbing higher interest rates without tipping into recession.

The second pillar involves Federal Reserve policy. UBS expects inflation to moderate in the second half of 2026 as tariff effects roll off, which should allow the central bank to remain patient. “We don’t think the Fed is going to take away the punch bowl,” the strategists wrote.

The third factor is the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence. AI-focused companies continue to serve as critical drivers of market appreciation, and UBS sees no sign of that momentum fading in the near term.

Scenario Analysis

Despite the bullish base case, UBS acknowledged potential risks that could derail the forecast. Sustained oil price gains, renewed inflationary pressures, or evidence that AI capital expenditures are generating weaker-than-expected returns could each weigh on index performance.

Under the bank’s downside scenario, the S&P 500 would fall to 5,500 by June 2027. Its upside case projects the index reaching 9,500 over the same timeframe. The base-case target of 8,100 for December 2026 remains the central expectation.

The revision places UBS among a growing group of major research houses projecting the S&P 500 will surpass the 8,000 threshold by the end of 2026.