The aura of scarcity that has long surrounded Hermès’s iconic Birkin bag is starting to loosen. A surge in secondary-market supply and a marked narrowing of resale premiums are casting the first systematic doubt on the core logic that has underpinned the brand’s high valuation and fat margins over the past decade.

Of nine Birkin resellers interviewed by Reuters in the United States, Europe and Asia, six said secondhand prices had fallen over the past year, mainly because more bags are circulating in the market; five reported weakening demand. UBS analysts downgraded Hermès shares to “sell” earlier this month, estimating that the number of Birkins and Kellys currently listed for sale worldwide is six to seven times pre-pandemic levels, and said flatly that “we believe the nature of this business is changing.”

Hermès shares have fallen nearly 40% so far this year, the worst performance among listed luxury companies. The company is due to report quarterly sales on Thursday, and consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha point to revenue growth of about 5.2%, which would be the slowest in six years.

Resale Premium Falls From 2.6x to 1.7x

The resale market for Birkins is cooling rapidly from its pandemic peak. Broker Bernstein, after tracking auction results, said the average resale price of a Birkin 25 in the third quarter of this year was about 1.7 times retail, well below the roughly 2.6 times seen at the 2022 peak.

Take the most sought-after unused black Birkin 25: resellers said its secondhand price has fallen by about £4,000 (approximately $5,400) since 2022 and now stands at about £24,000 (approximately $32,000), with some sellers asking as little as £20,000 (approximately $27,000). Hermès’s official retail price in the UK is £9,390 (approximately $13,000) — the gap remains wide, but it is no longer what it once was.

Tsai Pao-chun, who runs a Birkin resale business in London, told Reuters he began selling through Vestiaire Collective and social media platforms in 2020, when resale prices could reach more than double retail and profits were rich. Today, unused Birkins sell for more than $6,000 below their 2022 peak, and he has stopped stockpiling. “I don’t want to lose money,” he said.

Expanding Supply Shakes the Purchase Threshold

The Birkin’s ability to sustain a high premium for years rests on strictly controlled supply and a purchase-eligibility threshold. Resellers say customers typically must first spend $10,000 to $20,000 cumulatively on Hermès scarves, clothing and footwear before they have a chance of being invited to buy a Birkin or Kelly.

That barrier is now loosening. Hermès has opened an average of one new workshop a year in recent years, steadily expanding handcrafted leather-goods capacity. At the same time, resale platforms such as Vestiaire Collective and The RealReal have emerged, and the spread of online stores and social media channels has sharply lowered the barriers to resale. Sarah Davis, founder of California-based secondhand luxury platform Fashionphile, said the number of Birkins listed on the company’s site has grown 32-fold over 15 years, with 212 Birkins currently for sale. She once described the model as a “win-win” — the resale premium both encouraged customers to keep spending at Hermès and fueled a thriving resale market.

Core Business Shows Signs of Fatigue

The shift is prompting the market to re-examine Hermès’s business logic. Antoinette Hunter, founder of luxury handbag reseller Lilac Blue, said getting a Birkin is no longer difficult — making money from one is. She noted that if Hermès keeps raising retail prices while resale prices keep falling, the gap between the two will narrow further, “perhaps making the Birkin less attractive.”

Two equity analysts and two industry consultants told Reuters that demand for Hermès clothing, scarves and perfume is cooling — categories that traditionally serve as the pre-spend path to Birkin eligibility. The signal suggests the overall appeal of the brand ecosystem may be loosening.

From a financial standpoint, the leather-goods division, which includes other bag lines, still contributes 44% of the group’s annual revenue, and leather-goods revenue is expected to grow about 10% this quarter. But the broader slowdown and the sharp stock decline have led investors to begin reassessing the long-term value of this luxury giant.

Asked in July whether production should slow to protect brand value, Hermès Chief Executive Axel Dumas said output depends mainly on the number of trained artisans and the supply of high-quality leather, and acknowledged that outside concerns about production run in opposite directions.

Some resellers remain cautiously optimistic. Davis said Norwegian soccer star Erling Haaland’s recent collection of designer bags has drawn wide attention and nudged Birkin prices on Fashionphile slightly higher. But whether that celebrity effect can reverse the broader trend remains to be seen.

Note: The resale prices and premium multiples in the table are market estimates; actual transactions vary by model, condition and region.

Indicator2022 PeakQ3 2026 / RecentBirkin 25 resale price / retail price multipleAbout 2.6xAbout 1.7xUnused black Birkin 25 resale price (UK)About £28,000 (approximately $37,000)About £24,000 (approximately $32,000), with some quotes as low as £20,000 (approximately $27,000)Number of Birkins and Kellys listed for sale worldwideBaseline6 to 7 times pre-pandemicFashionphile Birkin listings—Up 32-fold over 15 years; 212 currentlyForecast Hermès quarterly revenue growth—About 5.2% (lowest in six years)