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If you are looking at Glencore and wondering whether the current share price still offers value, you are not alone. This article is built to help you cut through the noise and focus on what the numbers may be suggesting.
The stock closed at £5.26, with returns of 4.1% over 7 days, 4.3% over 30 days, 28.5% year to date and 70.6% over the past year, so recent price action is likely influencing how investors think about both growth potential and risk.
Recent headlines around Glencore have centered on its role as a major global commodities and trading group, including ongoing attention on its exposure to metals linked to energy transition and its broader commodity portfolio. These themes help frame how investors interpret the recent share price moves and what they might be paying for today.
Right now, Glencore has a value score of 3/6, which means it screens as undervalued on half of the valuation checks we use. Next we will look at how different valuation methods line up on the stock before finishing with a way to assess value that many investors overlook.
Find out why Glencore’s 70.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
A DCF model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows, discounts them back to today using a required return, and adds them up to reach an estimate of what the business might be worth per share.
For Glencore, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections in US$. The latest twelve month free cash flow figure is a loss of US$55.5 million. Analyst forecasts and subsequent extrapolations in the model point to projected free cash flows reaching about US$5.4b in 2026 and around US$5.4b again by 2035, with intermediate years in a similar multi billion range.
Discounting these projected cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of US$4.80 per share. Compared with the current share price of £5.26, this model output suggests Glencore trades at about a 9.6% premium to this DCF estimate, so the shares screen as slightly expensive on this metric.
Result: ABOUT RIGHT
Glencore is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment’s notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.
GLEN Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
For profitable, revenue generating businesses like Glencore, the P/S ratio is a useful cross check because it links the share price directly to the sales the company is producing, regardless of short term swings in profit or one off items.
What counts as a normal P/S ratio depends on what investors expect for future growth and how risky those cash flows appear. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while lower growth or higher risk usually lines up with a lower one.
Glencore currently trades on a P/S of 0.34x. That sits well below the Metals and Mining industry average of 3.82x and below the peer group average of 5.65x, so on simple comparisons the stock looks cheap against both its sector and closest comparables.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Glencore is 1.17x. This is a proprietary P/S level that reflects factors such as the company’s earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics. This makes it more tailored than broad peer or industry averages.
Comparing the Fair Ratio of 1.17x to the current 0.34x suggests the shares are screening as undervalued on this preferred multiple.
Result: UNDERVALUED
LSE:GLEN P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026
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Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about Glencore linked directly to your own numbers for future revenue, earnings and margins, and then to your view of fair value.
On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community page and let you connect a clear thesis to a financial forecast, then compare your Fair Value to the current share price to help you decide whether Glencore looks more like a buying opportunity, a hold, or something to trim.
Narratives update automatically when new information such as earnings, news or target price changes is added, so your story and fair value estimate stay aligned with the latest data without you having to rebuild your view from scratch.
For Glencore, one Narrative might lean toward a Fair Value close to £5.52 based on assumptions around revenue growth of about 2.9%, a profit margin of roughly 2.4% and a future P/E near 16.4x. Another might reflect a different view with Fair Value around £4.71, faster assumed revenue growth of 6.4%, a 3.5% margin and a future P/E near 9.4x. This shows how two investors can look at the same company and reach different but structured conclusions.
For Glencore however we’ll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Glencore Narratives:
🐂 Glencore Bull Case
Fair Value: £5.52 per share
Current price vs Fair Value: about 0.5% below this Narrative’s Fair Value
Assumed revenue growth: 2.94% per year
Analysts in this camp see a measured revenue build, higher profit margins and earnings reaching US$5.2b by around 2028, supported by copper volume growth, cost savings and portfolio tweaks.
They frame key risks around weaker commodity prices, regulatory and ESG pressures, legal liabilities and a less predictable marketing business, which could affect both earnings and access to capital.
Their work lines up with a Fair Value near £5.52, using a future P/E of about 16.4x and an 8.94% discount rate, so you would need to be comfortable with those assumptions to lean toward this view.
🐻 Glencore Bear Case
Fair Value: £4.71 per share
Current price vs Fair Value: about 11.6% above this Narrative’s Fair Value
Assumed revenue growth: 6.36% per year
This more bullish on growth but lower on valuation Narrative assumes faster revenue growth and higher margins, with earnings reaching US$9.8b, yet still using a lower future P/E of about 9.4x.
It highlights copper and coal volume upside, Argentinian growth options and recurring cost savings, but flags meaningful execution, commodity price, political and project timing risks.
With a Fair Value estimate around £4.71 using a 9.2% discount rate, this view implies the current price sits above what these assumptions support, so it treats the shares as pricing in a lot of that optimism already.
Putting both Narratives side by side shows you the trade off between different growth, margin and valuation assumptions. If you want to build and track your own version, the Community Narratives tools let you plug in your numbers and see how your Fair Value compares to these starting points.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Glencore? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
LSE:GLEN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include GLEN.L.
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