Aid agencies warn that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could overwhelm operations in the region and beyond, as trade routes and funding come under mounting pressure.
The US-Israeli assault on Iran has opened a new front in a region already stretched to the breaking point, where humanitarian needs were already rising, and funds were sorely lacking. Aid operations in Gaza, Sudan, Lebanon and many other crisis settings risk becoming collateral damage as agencies scramble to respond to new emergencies while struggling to keep existing programmes afloat.
Iran bears the brunt
Iran appears to have sustained the heaviest damage so far. Reports indicate strikes have hit residential areas, health facilities and a school. But a communications blackout and the regime’s near-total isolation have made verifying information difficult.
US and Israeli officials have been questioned about the reported killing of 168 Iranian schoolgirls in a strike on Saturday, which US secretary of state Marco Rubio said was under review. The Iranian Red Crescent, leading search and rescue operations, has documented at least 787 deaths since the beginning of the assault. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in Geneva, to which the Iranian responders belong, could not independently confirm specific attacks because of disrupted communications.
The humanitarian group has released CHF1.5 million from its emergency disaster fund to support operations, spokesperson Tommasso Della Longa said. Speaking for the World Health Organization, Tarik Jašarević said the agency had seen reports of health centres being struck but did not offer confirmation. He recalled that “protection of civilians, health workers and health facilities is an obligation under international humanitarian law”.
Risk of overwhelm
On its part, the UN Refugee Agency – the largest UN presence in Iran – has seen no “significant movements” of people, according to its spokesperson Babar Baloch. The country hosts some 1.6 million refugees, mostly from Afghanistan, where hunger is looming and where flaring hostilities between the Taliban and Pakistan risk causing further instability.
“Further violence risks overwhelming humanitarian capacities and placing additional pressure on host communities,” said Baloch, noting that some of the region’s countries host millions of refugees and displaced people.
Spillover across borders
Humanitarians are also mobilising to come to the aid of victims of Iran’s airstrikes. Magen David Adom, the Israeli Red Cross equivalent, has deployed its 39,000 volunteers and ambulances, treating over 100 injuries and anxiety cases, IFRC’s Della Longa Said. On Saturday, at least nine civilians were reportedly killed in the central city of Beth Shemesh after a missile struck a residential area, the UN Human Rights Office reported. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain have also reported a few civilians killed or injured by debris from intercepted missiles.
Hezbollah’s overnight attack against Israel has drawn out yet another confrontation with Tel Aviv, officially ending the shaky ceasefire and triggering mass displacement in the southern part of the country. “Many families are leaving by car and by foot with limited belongings and seeking safety in other areas,” said Baloch, adding that some 30,000 people had registered in collective shelters and that contingency plans were ready in case of a displacement spillover into Syria.
The escalation is also affecting aid in Gaza, where crossings have been closed since Saturday. Samer Adel Jaber, regional director for the Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Europe at the World Food Programme (WFP), said the organisation had enough food stocks to last for two and a half weeks.
“If closures…delays continue to affect (delivery) we expect that we will have to reduce…the ration size to almost 25 per cent to support 1.3 million people with wheat flour and food parcels,” he said, noting they had been informed the corridors would reopen soon.
Trade routes under strain
The conflict is unfolding in the middle of one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors. Disruptions to shipping lanes and airspace – including the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz – could complicate assistance delivery.
“Humanitarian supply routes across the region are going through strain,” said WFP’s Jaber. Delays and rising insurance costs could drive up the price of moving aid globally, while volatility in food and fuel prices could add further pressure.
The WFP official said that with sea routes contested and airspace closed, the UN agency was looking into alternatives. “We’re looking at adapting and relying on…our supplier networks in other countries, like Turkey, like Egypt, like Jordan and Pakistan, to support overland corridors,” he said, noting that Egyptian ports and the Suez Canal, a key hub for operations in Gaza and Sudan, were “still functioning”.
The conflict also comes at a time when the global humanitarian aid architecture is under financial pressure. Baloch pointed out that the UN Refugee Agency was preparing to announce the suspension of programmes in Jordan and Lebanon just this week due to insufficient funding.
“We are already underfunded in the majority of the eight or nine countries that are impacted now,” he added.