UBS: Best Time to Trade Asian Stocks After Oil Price Shock is at Open - News and Statistics

Mar 26, 2026

Research from UBS AG indicates that investors looking to trade Asian equities after a surge in oil prices should focus their activity at the very beginning of the trading session. The analysis, based on a study of six regional markets, examined performance during the first week of March as financial assets reacted to a military conflict involving Iran.

According to the bank’s electronic trading desk, turnover was heavily concentrated at the market open, with execution quality declining afterward. The note stated that volatility was predominantly front-loaded at the open, and intraday volume patterns generally returned to historical averages shortly after trading began. No market showed a sustained increase in trading volume throughout the day beyond the opening period.

The findings offer perspective on how equity trading in Asia has changed since the onset of Middle-East hostilities. Market direction is now more influenced by news headlines, with larger price swings and a growing frequency of intraday reversals in stock trajectories.

The most extreme example of front-loaded activity was observed in South Korea. There, opening trading volumes for the Kospi 200 Index reached levels up to 2.2 times higher than the half-year average before falling sharply, with only sporadic volatility around midday. The analysis described the response as extremely concentrated, with nearly all significant trading connected to the oil price shock occurring right at the start.

Consequently, UBS recommends that investors confine their trading to the initial five minutes of the session and avoid re-entering positions or making trades around midday. The guidance extends to other major Asian markets: investors are advised to trade Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average within the first 10 to 15 minutes and Australia’s benchmark index within the first 15 to 25 minutes. For Chinese equities, a critical window exists from 9:25 a.m. to 9:40 a.m. around the market open.

The note concludes that despite recent discussions of potential peace negotiations, markets are expected to stay volatile absent a concrete resolution to the conflict. It added that while there are some signs of possible de-escalation, energy prices and financial markets could experience ongoing volatility until complete stabilization is achieved.

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