Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Thun win with a probability of 42%. A win for Basel had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 23.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Thun win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.23%) and 0-2 (5.23%). The likeliest Basel win was 2-1 (7.89%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.