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If you are wondering whether UBS Group shares still offer value after a strong run over the last few years, you are not alone in asking what a fair price really looks like today.
The stock last closed at CHF 32.21, with returns of 9.7% over 1 year, 71.7% over 3 years and 168.0% over 5 years. The year-to-date return of 15.6% and recent 7-day and 30-day returns of 5.3% and 15.1% point to a bumpier short-term ride.
Recent market attention has centered on UBS Group’s ongoing role as a major global banking group and its positioning within diversified financials. This has helped keep investors focused on both its resilience and its risks. Alongside sector-wide headlines and regulatory scrutiny across global banks, this has framed how investors are thinking about UBS Group’s current share price.
On our checks, UBS Group scores 3 out of 6 on our valuation framework. You can see this in detail in our valuation score. Next we will walk through the standard valuation methods behind that result before finishing with a more complete way to think about what the stock might be worth.
The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company is expected to earn on its equity above the return that shareholders require, and then converts that into a per share value today.
For UBS Group, the starting point is a book value of CHF29.18 per share and an estimated stable earnings per share of CHF4.15. These earnings are based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 11 analysts. The average Return on Equity used in the model is 12.52%.
The required return for shareholders, or cost of equity, is CHF2.98 per share. The difference between what UBS Group is expected to earn and this required return is the excess return, which is CHF1.17 per share. The model also uses a stable book value estimate of CHF33.15 per share, based on weighted future book value estimates from 9 analysts.
Using these inputs, the Excess Returns model arrives at an intrinsic value of CHF36.05 per share. Compared with the recent share price of CHF32.21, this suggests the shares trade at roughly a 10.6% discount, which indicates the stock is modestly undervalued on this basis.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests UBS Group is undervalued by 10.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 227 more high quality undervalued stocks.
UBSG Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
For a profitable company like UBS Group, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each unit of earnings. It links the current share price directly to recent profit, which is what ultimately supports dividends and buybacks.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how the market views growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk tends to align with a lower P/E.
UBS Group currently trades on a P/E of 16.72x. That sits below both the Capital Markets industry average P/E of 18.30x and a peer group average of 20.49x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for UBS Group is 24.58x, which is its view of the P/E that would make sense given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, size, industry and risk profile.
This Fair Ratio is more tailored than simple peer or industry comparisons because it adjusts for UBS Group’s own characteristics rather than assuming all companies in the sector deserve the same multiple. Set against the current 16.72x, the higher Fair Ratio suggests the shares trade at a discount on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUED
SWX:UBSG P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026
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Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce Narratives, which are Simply Wall St tools on the Community page that let you attach a clear story about UBS Group to your own revenue, earnings and margin estimates. You can then link that story to a fair value and compare it to the current share price, with the narrative updating as fresh news or results arrive. This allows you to see in real time how a more cautious UBS view backing a CHF21.00 to CHF23.21 fair value and a more optimistic view pointing closer to CHF39.50 or even CHF45.36 can both be grounded in different assumptions about 2028 earnings, profit margins and P/E multiples, and you can decide which version fits your outlook.
For UBS Group, here are previews of two leading UBS Group narratives for you to review:
🐂 UBS Group Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish narrative: CHF 33.89 per share
Implied discount to this fair value: around 5.0% relative to the last close of CHF 32.21
Assumed revenue growth: 4.03% a year
Analysts in this camp see the Credit Suisse integration, cost savings and digital investment supporting higher margins and medium term earnings power.
They expect UBS’s wealth management scale and fee based revenues across regions to support recurring income and diversified growth.
The consensus price target of CHF 32.13, with fair value around CHF 33.89, reflects a view that the current share price is close to what these assumptions imply, so they see UBS Group broadly fairly priced on this set of inputs.
🐻 UBS Group Bear Case
Fair value in this bearish narrative: CHF 28.00 per share
Implied premium to this fair value: around 15.0% relative to the last close of CHF 32.21
Assumed revenue growth: 3.98% a year
Analysts in this group focus on heavier capital requirements, higher ongoing compliance costs and integration risks from Credit Suisse as constraints on returns and capital returns.
They also highlight structural pressures such as slower growth in some core European wealth markets and rising competition from digital players and alternative investment platforms.
With a bearish price target of CHF 23.21 against the current share price of CHF 32.21 and a fair value of CHF 28.00 in this narrative, they see a risk that expectations embedded in the market price are ahead of what these assumptions would justify.
Both narratives use explicit assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, capital intensity and P/E multiples. This allows you to decide which story feels closer to how you see UBS Group’s earnings, regulatory path and competitive position over the next few years.
When you are ready to go deeper into either side of the argument and see the full assumptions in one place, Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives can help you pressure test your own view against what other investors are thinking.
Do you think there’s more to the story for UBS Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
SWX:UBSG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include UBSG.SW.
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