On Sunday, Canada became the first host team ever to play a match outside its own country, after it finished second in Group B. Instead, Switzerland will take its place, facing Algeria — the Group J third-place finisher — in an 11 p.m. ET match in Vancouver.
The winner will go on to face either Colombia or Ghana, who will play Friday in Kansas City in the penultimate match of the Round of 32. It’s the first meeting between the two teams in a competitive setting and the first overall since they played a pair of friendlies in the 1980s.
Nati are +110 favorites to win in regular time (-200 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Fennecs are +290 (+155 to advance). There are +230 odds that the game will require extra time.
Below, I’ll break down this pivotal clash and provide my favorite bet.
Switzerland vs. Algeria Best Bet:
Switzerland Win and Both to Score (+340): This game has a similar script to that of the final group stage match between Algeria and Austria, in which both teams are relatively evenly-matched with a massive disparity between the sticks. The difference is that Switzerland’s goalkeeper, Gregor Kobel, is better than Das Team’s, and its attack is more clinical.
Switzerland vs. Algeria prediction, pick
Switzerland was the more convincing side by virtue of its group win, but Algeria played out arguably the most enthralling game of the tournament so far. Entering the final day, if the Fennecs drew with Austria, both teams would go through and the loser was guaranteed to be eliminated, and Algeria’s Riyad Mahrez found what looked to be a winner in the 94th minute before Das Team equalized in the 96th minute. It wasn’t a perfect group stage by either team, but each showed plenty of promising signs, especially in Nati’s late flurry of goals against Bosnia and Herzegovina and in their steady performance against the Reds. The Fennecs’ numbers looked less impressive on the surface, but their throttling against Argentina had more to do with moments of individual brilliance by Lionel Messi than with any major flaws.
Switzerland is a relatively veteran-led side led by captain Granit Xhaka, who converted a late penalty against the Dragons, but Johan Manzambi has been the storyline. The 20-year-old rising star, who plays for Freiburg, has three goals and one assist to lead the line for an attack that has managed the seventh-most expected goals per match so far this competition. In particular, Nati have done an excellent job setting up high-quality looks, averaging the fourth-most expected goals per shot and completing passes into the final third at the eighth-highest rate. They’ve also played aggressively, attempting the second-most through balls per game. Switzerland pairs its strong attack with an equally strong defense; so far this World Cup, it has allowed the 12th-fewest expected goals per match on the seventh-fewest total shots, though some 80% of those shots have come inside the box. Nati have also won a majority of both ground and aerial duels while allowing the seventh-fewest touches in the box. Their press hasn’t turned into many high turnovers leading to a shot, and they’ve fouled too much, but they can afford to be aggressive because they have one of the world’s best goalkeepers, Gregor Kobel, between the sticks. Kobel hasn’t had to do too much, but when he has been called into action, he’s been solid, making 11 saves from 14 opportunities.
Algeria’s roster has a combination of big names and rising stars, as well. Mahrez has been both the Fennecs’ best and most well-known attacking player, netting two goals and an assist so far, but Amine Gouiri, Fares Chaïbi, and Ibrahim Maza have made significant contributions as well, with Maza’s three shots on target tying Mahrez for the team co-lead. Overall, Algeria’s attack has been relatively fearsome, as it’s managed 1.29 expected goals per match while completing passes at the highest rate, and it has played cleanly, making only two mistakes leading to a shot in the group stage. The Fennecs also have some impressive defensive numbers, as they allowed just 1.13 expected goals per match during the group stage while forcing opponents to take half of their shots from outside the box, and they won ground duels at the third-highest rate. Algeria has also produced the eighth-most high turnovers with its press while committing the fewest fouls, and Ramy Bensebaini and Rayan Aït-Nouri both have double-digit defensive contributions. However, the Fennecs’ goalies have been extremely problematic; Luca Zidane made just six saves from 10 opportunities in his two matches, and Oussama Benbot was somehow even worse.
These teams would be pretty evenly-matched if not for the disparity between Kobel and whichever of Zidane and Benbot starts between the sticks. Algeria’s excellent pass completion percentage is partially driven by its passive approach, but since Switzerland hasn’t done a great job turning its press into opportunities on the other end and fouls a lot, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Fennecs got through eventually. Algeria has been solid at driving balls into the penalty area, and while none of its attacking options have finished very efficiently, Nati will eventually pay for the high-quality looks it allows. In the end, I’ll go with Switzerland; it could get one on the fast break because of its reliance on through balls and the Fennecs’ defensive aggressiveness, and Manzambi could easily strike from outside the box. After playing out a thriller with an Alpine side on the final day of the group stage, Algeria will find itself on the losing end of another one.
Best Bet: Switzerland Win and Both to Score (+340)
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