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If you are trying to work out whether UBS Group is priced attractively right now, the recent share moves and current valuation signals give you a lot to weigh up.
The stock last closed at CHF31.56, with returns of 4.6% over 7 days, a 0.8% decline over 30 days, a 17.3% decline year to date, and gains of 21.7%, 85.3%, and 141.4% over 1, 3, and 5 years respectively. These moves may catch your eye if you are thinking about growth potential and changing risk perceptions.
Recent UBS Group headlines have focused on its role as a major global financial institution and its ongoing integration of past acquisitions, which keep investor attention on how resilient its business model is through different market conditions. These factors help frame how the market has been reacting to the stock in recent weeks and years.
On Simply Wall St’s 6 point valuation check, UBS Group currently has a valuation score of 3. This means the company screens as undervalued on half of the checks, and the rest of this article will walk through those valuation methods before rounding out with a broader way to think about what the current price really implies.
The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company is expected to generate above the return required by its shareholders, then links that to what the share could be worth today.
For UBS Group, the starting point is its equity base, with a Book Value of CHF29.18 per share and a Stable Book Value estimate of CHF32.27 per share. On that equity, analysts expect Stable EPS of CHF4.09 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 11 analysts, with an Average Return on Equity of 12.68%.
The model compares this earnings power to the Cost of Equity of CHF2.90 per share. The difference, an Excess Return of CHF1.19 per share, represents the value created above the required shareholder return. Applying this framework gives an estimated intrinsic value of CHF36.83 per share.
Against the recent share price of CHF31.56, this points to an implied discount of 14.3%, which suggests UBS Group screens as undervalued on this approach.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests UBS Group is undervalued by 14.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 245 more high quality undervalued stocks.
UBSG Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026
For a profitable company like UBS Group, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see what investors are currently paying for each unit of earnings. It gives a quick sense of how the market is weighing the company’s profit profile against other opportunities.
In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk tend to support a higher P/E ratio, while slower expected growth or higher risk usually line up with a lower P/E. That is why context matters when you look at any single number.
UBS Group currently trades on a P/E of 15.81x. This sits below the Capital Markets industry average of about 17.01x and below the peer group average of 19.01x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for UBS Group is 23.20x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be given factors such as earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk indicators.
The Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison because it adjusts for UBS Group’s own characteristics rather than treating all companies as if they were identical. Compared with the current 15.81x, the Fair Ratio of 23.20x suggests that UBS Group screens as undervalued on this approach.
Result: UNDERVALUED
SWX:UBSG P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
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Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives bring this to life by letting you set a clear story for UBS Group, link that story to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, and see the fair value that falls out of those assumptions. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are easy to use and help you compare the Fair Value from your own or other investors’ stories with the current share price, so you can judge for yourself whether the stock looks appealing or expensive on that view. Because they update automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive, you can see in real time how changes might affect that story. For UBS Group, one investor might align with the more optimistic view that supports a Fair Value of about CHF51.07, while another might lean toward a more cautious view closer to CHF30.00. Narratives simply make those different perspectives transparent, structured and comparable so you can decide which story you find more reasonable.
For UBS Group, here are previews of two leading UBS Group narratives to make the analysis easier to follow:
🐂 UBS Group Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish narrative is CHF38.38.
At the last close of CHF31.56, that equates to roughly 17.8% below this fair value estimate.
Revenue growth in the model is set at about 2.96% a year.
Focuses on Credit Suisse integration, digital infrastructure and efficiency gains as key drivers for profits and return on equity.
Builds in higher profit margins and earnings by 2028, together with modest annual revenue growth and a future P/E of around 12.9x.
Flags regulatory capital proposals, higher compliance costs, margin pressure and integration execution as important risks that could challenge this view.
🐻 UBS Group Bear Case
Fair value in this more cautious narrative is CHF30.00.
At the last close of CHF31.56, that comes out to about 5.2% above this fair value estimate.
Revenue growth in the model is set at about 3.08% a year.
Emphasizes tighter Swiss capital rules, higher regulatory and compliance costs and integration risks from Credit Suisse as potential drags on returns.
Uses lower assumed revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins and a future P/E of around 10.9x to capture a more conservative earnings path.
Accepts that UBS Group could still grow earnings and improve the business, while arguing the share price might already reflect more optimism than these assumptions support.
These contrasting narratives help you consider whether current UBS Group pricing appears closer to the bullish or cautious camp, and which set of assumptions aligns better with your own expectations for earnings, regulation and capital returns over the next few years.
Do you think there’s more to the story for UBS Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
SWX:UBSG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include UBSG.SW.
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