Credit: WeatherBell
The Australian Alps snow forecast for May 6-8 brings a cold midweek storm with the best totals from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning, delivering snowfall across most mainland alpine areas. Most resorts are currently closed, so this is more useful as a mountain snowfall and base-building update than a lift-served powder forecast. The strongest signal in the snow forecast is for 10-25 cm across many mainland alpine areas, locally higher at Mount Baw Baw, while Tasmania looks lighter and Ben Lomond has little to no snow signal. The largest three resorts — Perisher, Thredbo, and Buller — are expected to see around 10-16 cm of snowfall.
Confidence for the snow forecast is strongest from Wednesday afternoon, May 6, through Friday morning, May 8. The individual models converge well on the timing, with snow developing Wednesday afternoon or evening, peaking from late Wednesday night through Thursday, then tapering Friday morning. They diverge modestly on intensity and on how long light showers linger Friday, but the storm structure is consistent. Snow levels while it is snowing are generally near 900-1,300 meters, with colder pockets lower during the main burst, so most alpine elevations should be cold enough for accumulating snow.
Snow quality should be dense to moderate rather than especially light. SLRs generally run 7-11 during the main snowfall, with temperatures mostly -6°C to 2°C in the colder alpine zones. The individual models also agree on a windy storm, though they vary on peak gust strength. Sustained winds commonly run 30-60 km/h during the storm, and exposed terrain could see gusts in the 80-120 km/h range where gust data is strongest.
From Friday afternoon through Sunday, the snow forecast guidance converges on a quick shutoff and a dry, milder pattern. Any leftover snowfall looks negligible, with temperatures recovering to roughly 0°C to 16°C across the terrain by the weekend. Monday through Thursday also looks mostly dry, with the individual models aligned on little to no additional snowfall and only modest spread in wind and temperature. That should leave the midweek snow to settle under calmer, milder weather rather than being followed by another significant storm in this forecast period.
Australian Alps Resort Forecast Totals (Wed May 06 – Fri May 08)
Mount Baw Baw – 18-27 cm
Charlotte Pass – 13-19 cm
Mount Buller – 11-16 cm
Thredbo – 10-15 cm
Mount Hotham – 10-15 cm
Perisher – 10-14 cm
Falls Creek – 10-14 cm
Selwyn Snowfields – 9-13 cm
Mount Mawson – 5-8 cm
Ben Lomond – 0 cm