{"id":111990,"date":"2026-08-05T14:04:29","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T14:04:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/111990\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T14:04:29","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T14:04:29","slug":"prudential-offers-sees-50-return-potential-but-ubs-sees-short-term-headwinds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/111990\/","title":{"rendered":"Prudential offers sees 50% return potential but UBS sees short-term headwinds"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Prudential<\/a> Prudential offers sees 50% return potential but UBS sees short-term headwinds Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock <\/p>\n

Prudential PLC (LSE:PRU)<\/a>\u00a0numbers later this month are likely to be weaker than the market is forecasting, UBS believes, though it is confident that long-term growth prospects in Asia remain intact. <\/p>\n

The insurer reports first-half results on 27 August. UBS forecasts annual premium equivalent sales and new business profit will both come in around 5% below Visible Alpha consensus estimates. <\/p>\n

Analyst Will Hardcastle expects weaker sales in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore, alongside pressure on new business margins in China. <\/p>\n

He said investors are also likely to focus on Prudential’s agency business after first-quarter sales in Hong Kong fell around 10%. <\/p>\n

A ‘buy’ rating was retained and the 12-month price target was nudged up to 1,515p from 1,470p, implying 37% upside from the 1,109p last close. <\/p>\n

Over three years, Hardcastle sees potential for a total shareholder return of around 50%, which includes capital returns equivalent to 18% of Prudential’s market value and cumulative earnings growth of roughly 30%. <\/p>\n

Capital distributions appear well supported, he suggested, forecasting free surplus to exceed $10 billion by 2027 and the solvency ratio to reach 206%. <\/p>\n

However, Prudential’s valuation discount to Asian rival AIA has narrowed to around 28%, compared with a historical average of 30%. <\/p>\n

Recent insurance deals offer a more positive comparison. Allianz’s acquisition of HSBC’s Singapore business and Ageas’s sale to Maybank were both agreed at more than 1.5 times comprehensive equity, while Prudential trades at around 0.8 times. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Prudential offers sees 50% return potential but UBS sees short-term headwinds Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock Prudential…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111991,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[129],"tags":[31519,223,54689],"class_list":["post-111990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ubs","tag-prudential","tag-ubs","tag-will-hardcastle"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/117043282934391237","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111990\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}