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Is Switzerland overpopulated? <\/p>\n
Keystone \/ Urs Flueeler <\/p>\n
With less than two weeks to go until a nationwide vote, 52% of respondents are against the \u201cNo to ten million!\u201d immigration initiative, according to the second Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) poll.\n<\/p>\n
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June 3, 2026 – 06:00\n<\/p>\n
On the second issue to be decided on June 14 \u2013 tightening the conditions for access to civilian service \u2013 supporters and opponents are neck and neck.<\/p>\n
The immigration initiative, put forward by the right-wing Swiss People\u2019s Party, seeks to limit Switzerland\u2019s population to ten million by 2050 by drastically restricting immigration. It is currently 9.1 million.<\/p>\n
While the yes and no camps were evenly matched at the beginning of May<\/a>, opponents of the initiative have now gained the upper hand, according to the second SBC poll: 52% of respondents were opposed to the initiative. The no camp has gained five percentage points since the first poll. The initiative still garners 45% support, while 3% remain undecided.<\/p>\n The no vote among the Swiss Abroad, which was already pronounced a month ago, has increased even further: 63% would reject the population cap, 33% are in favour and 4% still have no opinion.<\/p>\n Lukas Golder, a political scientist at the gfs.bern institute which conducted the poll, points out that the Swiss Abroad benefit from the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons with the EU, which, according to the initiative, will be terminated as a last resort. \u201cThe Swiss Abroad are sceptical about the People\u2019s Party\u2019s proposals to limit immigration. They have rejected them all in recent years, as they did in the 2014 vote on the initiative against mass immigration, which was nonetheless accepted by a majority of voters,\u201d Golder points out.<\/p>\n >> Our explainer on the immigration initiative:<\/p>\n \n More<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Swiss Politics\n <\/p>\n \u2018No to ten million\u2019 vote \u2013 should Switzerland cap its population? <\/p>\n This content was published on <\/p>\n Apr 14, 2026 <\/p>\n On June 14, the Swiss will vote on a right-wing initiative aiming to cap immigration. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read more: \u2018No to ten million\u2019 vote \u2013 should Switzerland cap its population? The fronts are getting stronger<\/p>\n The initiative continues to polarise opinion: while People\u2019s Party voters almost unanimously supports the party\u2019s text, the left rejects it in the same proportions. The centre of the political spectrum is even more clearly opposed to the proposal than it was a month ago.<\/p>\n Trust in the government also plays an important role: those who distrust the government still largely support the initiative, while those who trust it are clearly opposed. The no vote also gained ground among several population groups: women, people with a high level of education, city dwellers and the French-speaking population.<\/p>\n Opponents of the text also gained ground in terms of arguments. On the whole, the arguments against a population cap were more convincing: a large majority of those polled considered that the bilateral path with the EU should not be jeopardised.<\/p>\n Poll <\/p>\n For the second survey ahead of the federal referendum on June 14, gfs.bern questioned 19,400 voters between May 19-27. The statistical margin of error is +\/-2.8 percentage points.<\/p>\n Winterthur attack as unknown<\/p>\n Given these results, gfs.bern expects the text to be rejected. The evolution of opinion should continue to follow the usual pattern, i.e. a loss of support as the campaign progresses. \u201cA protest vote, which led to acceptance of the initiative against mass immigration in 2014, is not set to be repeated,\u201d Golder believes.<\/p>\n However, the polling institute\u2019s political scientists point out that the survey was carried out before the terrorist knife attack in Winterthur on Thursday that injured three people. \u201cThis type of event can have a short-term influence on the mobilisation of one of the two camps, by creating a more emotional climate,\u201d Golder says.<\/p>\n Suspense surrounding amendment to Civilian Service Act<\/p>\n The second item to be put to the vote on June 14 follows a more surprising course. This is an amendment to the Civilian Service Act, which would tighten the conditions for access to civilian service in order to guarantee army numbers.<\/p>\n The poll shows that while supporters of the proposal started the campaign with a comfortable lead, they have lost ground and are now neck-and-neck with their opponents. This is an unusual pattern, given that projects put forward by the authorities tend to gain support during the campaign.<\/p>\n Only 48% of those questioned support the legislative amendment, four percentage points fewer than in the first poll; 46% are against and 6% are undecided.<\/p>\n The proportions are similar among the Swiss Abroad, with the difference that there are more undecided voters. This is probably due to the fact that expatriates are not subject to the obligation to serve, but also to the fact that less attention is being paid to this issue in the face of the wide-ranging debate triggered by the immigration initiative.<\/p>\n The project also strongly polarises opinion. The left-wing Greens and Socialist Democrats reject it even more widely than in the first poll. On the other hand, it continues to be overwhelmingly supported by the right-wing Swiss People\u2019s Party and the centre-right Radical-Liberal Party. While support is declining among Centre Party voters, it remains in the majority.<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Should the Swiss population be capped at 10 million? <\/p>\n How many people do you think Switzerland can realistically host? Let us know what you think.\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n View the discussion A government project supported by suspicious circles<\/p>\n It is also interesting to note that the amendment to the law is supported more by those who are critical of the government than by those who have confidence in it. An unusual configuration for a project emanating from the authorities.<\/p>\n In terms of arguments, little has changed since the previous survey. Despite the rise of the no camp, the arguments in favour of amending the Civilian Service Act continue to convince a majority of people. In particular, almost three-quarters of the electorate believe that the size of the armed forces should be guaranteed for the long term.<\/p>\n However, the arguments against the proposal have gained ground slightly, but only one of them is convincing for a majority: tightening access to civilian service would harm society, as important care, education and environmental protection activities would disappear.<\/p>\n While the outcome of the vote remains open, the polling institute says the momentum is currently more strongly in favour of the no camp. \u201cThis issue is in the shadow of the \u2018No to ten million\u2019 initiative. It\u2019s only now that people are starting to take more of an interest in it and are discovering its weaknesses,\u201d says political scientist Martina Mousson.<\/p>\n >> Watch our debate on the issue:<\/p>\n \n More<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Votes\n <\/p>\n Population cap initiative \u2018will not stop Swiss Abroad from returning home\u2019 <\/p>\n This content was published on <\/p>\n May 27, 2026 <\/p>\n Should Switzerland cap its population at 10 million by strictly limiting immigration? Two lawmakers discuss the proposal in our \u201cLet\u2019s Talk\u201d programme. <\/p>\n![\"Crowded?](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/454006733_highres_f166ae.jpg\")
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