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Elio Biadici in front of his house in Piano di Peccia, in the Maggia Valley in southern Switzerland, on July, 3, 2024. Heavy thunderstorms triggered devastating debris flows and damage in the region in late June 2024. <\/p>\n
Keystone \/ Michael Buholzer <\/p>\n
High in the mountains, a sudden downpour can turn a quiet slope or valley into a roaring river of mud and rock within minutes. And these intense downpours are predicted to become more frequent. The man in charge of a new Swiss research institute on mountain hazards spoke to Swissinfo about how the climate crisis is reshaping risks in the Alps. \u00a0\n<\/p>\n
This content was published on <\/p>\n
August 27, 2026 – 09:00\n<\/p>\n
Markus Stoffel holds the newly-created Chair of Mountain Hazard Research at the University of Geneva. He and other scientists warnExternal link<\/a> that climate change is rapidly escalating disaster risks in the Alps. Melting glaciers, shrinking snow cover and thawing permafrost are destabilising mountains, triggering more rockfalls, debris flows and cascading hazards that threaten communities and infrastructure.<\/p>\n Professor Markus Stoffel is the head of the University of Geneva\u2019s new Chair for Mountain Hazard Research. <\/p>\n UNIGE <\/p>\n At the same time, precipitation patterns are shifting. Swiss summers are expected to become drier, but heavy rainfall will intensify across all seasons. Short, intense downpours are projected to grow both more frequent and up to 30% strongerExternal link<\/a>, with rain falling in increasingly concentrated bursts.<\/p>\n \u201cThat water can erode more material,\u201d StoffelExternal link<\/a> told Swissinfo. \u201cSo there is a possibility that debris flow catchments will produce events without historical precedents.\u201d<\/p>\n Stoffel leads a research team working to better understand how climate change is reshaping debris flows and other Alpine hazards \u2013 and how risks can be reduced. In collaboration with public and private partners, the project aims to develop strategies to limit future losses and damage.<\/p>\n The six specialists are studying how warming, shifting precipitation, glacier retreat and permafrost thaw affect the frequency, scale and impacts of hazards in mountain regions, including debris flows, avalanches, rockfall, and large-scale slope movements. Launched on May 1, the five-year project is backed by \u20ac1 million (CHF920,000) from the AXA Fund for Human Progress.<\/p>\n \u201cThe rock-ice avalanche in Blatten<\/a> last year or the fatal debris flows in summer 2024<\/a> underscore the pressing need to improve understanding of these processes and their dynamics. While we won\u2019t be able to avoid the occurrence of these phenomena in the future, we can certainly mitigate the resulting damage,\u201d said Stoffel.<\/p>\n Unprecedented debris flows<\/p>\n Like other Alpine hazards, debris flows can be deadly and extremely costlyExternal link<\/a>. In summer 2024, violent storms caused destructive debris flows across the Alps, striking southern Switzerland (Val Bavona, Valle Maggia), northern Italy (Valle d\u2019Aosta and Piedmont), as well as parts of Austria and Germany.<\/p>\n The frequency and severity of debris flows is bound to increase as glaciers retreat and permafrost thaws, loosening sediment on mountainsides. The volume of Swiss glaciers has reduced by almost 40%External link<\/a> since the year 2000, and the glaciers continue to lose mass each year.<\/p>\n \n More<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Glaciers & permafrost\n <\/p>\n Swiss experts downplay risk from unstable glacier <\/p>\n This content was published on <\/p>\n Aug 26, 2026 <\/p>\n Local officials and experts stress that the Weisshorn glacier is being closely monitored and poses no immediate threat to residents. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read more: Swiss experts downplay risk from unstable glacier Stoffel reckons that over the course of the 21st century the lower boundary of permafrost is likely to shift upwards by 200 to 750 metres, depending on exposure of the slopes, ground composition and ice thickness. This will lay bare new sediment sources and increase the likelihood of larger debris flows, said the professor.<\/p>\n >>Read more about the impact of the warming planet on permafrost.<\/p>\n \n More<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Climate solutions\n <\/p>\n How climate change is threatening permafrost\u2019s delicate balance <\/p>\n This content was published on <\/p>\n Mar 10, 2025 <\/p>\n Permafrost is the hidden frozen \u201cglue\u201d \u2013 a layer formed by ice, rock and soil \u2013 that holds icy northern landscapes together. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read more: How climate change is threatening permafrost\u2019s delicate balance \u2018Destruction potential could be higher\u2019<\/p>\n Debris flows occurred in the past, but not as often and typically in summer. Now the season is extending.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve already had events occurring earlier \u2013 so May, sometimes even April \u2013 and extending later into October,\u201d said Stoffel.<\/p>\n They can even occur in winter. Stoffel highlighted the case of January 2018, when the Swiss Alps saw heavy snowfalls, followed by warm temperatures, more heavy rain and snow.<\/p>\n \u201cWe had huge avalanches coming down in different parts of the Alps and then suddenly debris flows in the middle of winter. Something that we hadn\u2019t experienced before. This was maybe a glimpse of what we could expect by the end of the century,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n While Swiss hazard zones are well-mapped and the regions affected by debris flows and flash floods are generally known, higher rainfall volumes mean debris flows may travel further and with greater force.<\/p>\n \u201cWith larger precipitation volumes the energies of debris flows [and the destruction potential] could be higher,\u201d Stoffel said.<\/p>\n >>Small landslides are on the rise in the Alps due to climate change, but it\u2019s less obvious what is causing large-scale natural disasters. Read more about this below.<\/p>\n \n More<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Climate solutions\n <\/p>\n Why do Swiss mountains collapse? It\u2019s complicated <\/p>\n This content was published on <\/p>\n May 23, 2025 <\/p>\n Small landslides are on the increase in the Swiss Alps owing to climate change. But the link with global warming is less obvious for large natural disasters. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read more: Why do Swiss mountains collapse? It\u2019s complicated Climate change \u2013 only part of story<\/p>\n One important caveat, however, is that sediment is not unlimited. A massive debris flow can completely flush a catchment down to its bedrock, Stoffel says. When this happens, the system needs time to \u201crefill\u201d via rockfalls from higher on the mountain before another debris flow can occur, meaning some areas might temporarily become safer even if intense storms continue.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is what makes it really difficult to make general statements of what will happen and what will change,\u201d said the professor.<\/p>\n He also insists that climate change is only part of the story behind mountain hazards.<\/p>\n \u201cWe estimate the influence of climate change to be one-third to 50%. The other two-thirds, or 50% of the risk, was really the result of more infrastructure over time\u2026it\u2019s also the result of human decisions, mostly decisions that were taken in the past,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n This is reflected in the transformation of the Alps in the second half of the 20th century, when mountain settlements expanded and became more densely populated. Before 1950, villages were largely isolated, but the postwar boom brought roads, bus networks and ski lifts that reshaped settlement patterns. Population growth \u2013 over 30% between 1950 and 1970 \u2013 along with a surge in tourism and second homes, drove expansion in accessible Alpine regions.<\/p>\n >>A look at some of the solutions being used to protect residents and villages from landslides in Switzerland.<\/p>\n \n More<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Climate solutions\n <\/p>\n How to protect people and places from landslides in Switzerland\u00a0 <\/p>\n This content was published on <\/p>\n Aug 6, 2024 <\/p>\n Warning systems and protective barriers can prevent the worst, but drastic solutions are being suggested to cope with the increasing risk of natural disasters. <\/p>\n![\"UNIGE](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Markus-Stoffel-UNIGE.jpg\")
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