![\"UBS](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/3b7b39353a5c368a21dc32320ce6aaa9.jpeg\")
UBS keeps Buy on Viva as Middle East tensions lift refining margins Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock <\/p>\n UBS keeps Buy on Viva as Middle East tensions lift refining margins Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock <\/p>\n
UBS has reaffirmed its\u00a0Buy\u00a0recommendation on\u00a0Viva Energy, arguing that the conflict in the Middle East is supporting stronger oil refining margins and could flow through to improved earnings from the company\u2019s\u00a0Geelong refinery\u00a0if conditions hold.<\/p>\n
In a note to clients, the bank pointed to a sharp uplift in Asian margins for converting crude into refined fuels, with gains most evident in\u00a0jet fuel\u00a0and\u00a0diesel. UBS said that, should the higher margin environment persist, Viva\u2019s refinery would be positioned to benefit through stronger gross earnings from refining.<\/p>\n
UBS does not expect an outright physical shortage of crude oil or refined fuels, provided shipping through the\u00a0Strait of Hormuz\u00a0normalises within\u00a01 month. While Viva sources\u00a0less than 10%\u00a0of its crude from the Middle East, it imports sizeable volumes of refined fuels from\u00a0Asia, leaving the company exposed to regional margin moves.<\/p>\n
On UBS estimates, Viva\u2019s Geelong refining margin could lift to around\u00a0US$10.70 per barrel\u00a0in\u00a0March, which the bank said is about\u00a014%\u00a0above current market consensus. If achieved, UBS estimates this could add roughly\u00a0$20 million\u00a0to Viva\u2019s gross refining earnings across the\u00a0March quarter.<\/p>\n
UBS also flagged a potential domestic catalyst: the federal government\u2019s review of refining subsidy payments, which is due to be finalised\u00a0this month. The outcome could influence investor sentiment toward local refining economics and, in turn, Viva\u2019s share price.<\/p>\n
UBS has set a\u00a012-month price target of $2.40\u00a0on Viva shares. The stock last closed at\u00a0$2.07.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UBS keeps Buy on Viva as Middle East tensions lift refining margins Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26318,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[129],"tags":[16041,16038,239,16037,16039,223,16040],"class_list":["post-26317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ubs","tag-geelong-refinery","tag-gross-earnings","tag-middle-east","tag-oil-refining","tag-refined-fuels","tag-ubs","tag-viva-energy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116179662489354277","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26317"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26317\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}