{"id":26849,"date":"2026-03-06T19:02:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T19:02:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/26849\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T19:02:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T19:02:09","slug":"unusual-options-activity-suggests-the-smart-money-is-bullish-about-rio-tinto-stock-despite-glencore-deal-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/26849\/","title":{"rendered":"Unusual Options Activity Suggests the Smart Money Is Bullish About Rio Tinto Stock Despite Glencore Deal Collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As we head into the weekend and the second week of the Iran war, options volume is higher than usual. That\u2019s not unexpected. If there\u2019s one thing I\u2019ve learned about the options market, it&#8217;s that traders love volatility.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In Thursday\u2019s trading, the options volume was 66.03 million, about seven million higher than the average daily volume. A war will do that.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>With higher-than-normal options volume comes unusually active options. In yesterday\u2019s action, the top 100 Vol\/OI (volume-to-open-interest) ratios ranged from\u00a0Southwest Airlines <a class=\"mention\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barchart.com\/quotes\/LUV\" target=\"_self\" data-symbol=\"LUV\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">(LUV)<\/a>\u00a0at 131.81 for the top one to 28.77 for\u00a0Strategy <a class=\"mention\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barchart.com\/quotes\/MSTR\" target=\"_self\" data-symbol=\"MSTR\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">(MSTR)<\/a>, the 1ooth highest.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Unmistakable was the interest in\u00a0Rio Tinto <a class=\"mention\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barchart.com\/quotes\/RIO\" target=\"_self\" data-symbol=\"RIO\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">(RIO)<\/a>, the London-based global mining giant that until yesterday was considering making an offer for\u00a0Glencore <a class=\"mention\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barchart.com\/quotes\/GLNCY\" target=\"_self\" data-symbol=\"GLNCY\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">(GLNCY)<\/a>\u00a0that would have created the world\u2019s largest mining company. More on that later.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Its share volume wasn\u2019t too unusual &#8212; 4.87 million compared to its average daily volume of 3.65 million &#8212; but its options volume was off the charts &#8212; 1.29 million on the day, over 17 times higher than its 30-day average. The next highest daily volume over the past 24 months was 308,315 in August 2025.<\/p>\n<p>My Friday commentary centers around unusual options activity. Yesterday, Rio Tinto had 40 in the top 100 Vol\/OI ratios, ranging from 56.89 to 31.33. And they were all calls; not a single put.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>There are several reasons for this, including the most obvious, which I\u2019ll address shortly. But given the breadth of call options, I\u2019ll consider the strategies institutional investors were using yesterday.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Have an excellent weekend.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Rio Tinto Ends Pursuit of Glencore<\/p>\n<p>Until yesterday\u2019s 10 a.m. announcement that Rio Tinto would not be making a formal offer for Glencore, investors were under the impression that the company might seek an extension of its Feb. 5, 12 p.m. ET deadline to clarify its intentions. That did not happen.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>According to\u00a0Bloomberg,\u00a0UK rules now prevent Rio Tinto from pursuing an acquisition of Glencore for at least six months. For the time being, the matter is closed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u2018It is possible that the two companies re-engage at some point in the future, but that is not our base case,\u2019 Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina said in an emailed note. \u2018Rio likely goes it alone,\u2019\u201d Bloomberg reported the analyst\u2019s comments.<\/p>\n<p>The two sides were unable to agree on the valuation and terms of a merger. Specifically, Glencore wanted 40% of the combined entity post-merger; Rio Tinto felt that implied a much higher premium than it was willing to pay. Glencore wouldn\u2019t budge. End of story.<\/p>\n<p>I must admit, I\u2019m not a big follower of mining companies, but they\u2019re most definitely front-and-center these days, given gold and other metal prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Consolidation in the global mining industry will continue despite the end of this possible tie-up. Projects in the billions require massive scale. Mining is definitely not software.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Reasons for RIO Call Dominance<\/p>\n<p>In addition to Rio Tinto ending its pursuit of Glencore yesterday, today is the company\u2019s ex-dividend date for its final dividend of 2025. Payable on April 16, it is $2.54 a share, up from $2.25 a year ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>So, if you were long Rio calls, and the calls were ITM (in-the-money) or deep ITM, yesterday was the last day for you to exercise your right to buy RIO stock to be eligible for the April dividend payment. Its $ 4.02-a-share payout in 2025 was flat with 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Consider an institutional investor like\u00a0Citigroup <a class=\"mention\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barchart.com\/quotes\/C\" target=\"_self\" data-symbol=\"C\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">(C)<\/a>. As of its most recent 13F filing, it owned 1.5 million shares of Rio Tinto, with an additional 287,500 shares held through call options. That\u2019s $730,250 in dividends it\u2019s leaving on the sidelines if it doesn\u2019t exercise those options.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the five unusually active call options from yesterday\u2019s trading that also had the highest volume.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/d1ybeng5amieuhje.png\" width=\"2048\" height=\"287\"\/><\/p>\n<p>As you can see, they\u2019re all ITM, with three expiring in three weeks from today, and two in six weeks. I\u2019m going to focus on the two deepest ITM, the March 20 $75 call and the April 17 $75 call.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Looking at the options flow, the March 20 $75 call had 23 trades of 1,000 contracts or more yesterday, accounting for 82% of the 112,881 total volume. The April 17 $75 call had 7 trades of 1,000 contracts or more yesterday, accounting for 52% of the 72,562 total volume.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Many of the trades were at the bid price, indicating selling pressure, as buyers of these calls looked to book gains on their options. The closing bid price at the end of yesterday\u2019s trading for the $75 calls expiring on March 20 and April 17 was $17.60. The trade prices so far on Friday morning for the earlier DTE are around $15. There\u2019s no volume for the April 17 $75 call with bid and ask prices of $15.20 and $15.80, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Because the March 20 expiration is four weeks earlier, the bid and ask prices have fallen by 50-60 cents more than the April 17 expiration.<\/p>\n<p>So, as far as I can tell, much of the call action yesterday involved longs exiting their positions rather than exercising their calls to capture the dividends. However, the OI (open interest) today is 193,175, 14% lower than a day earlier, indicating calls were exercised.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/mh9c4lnyb2g8tlni.png\" width=\"1846\" height=\"338\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The Covered Call Was Popular<\/p>\n<p>For investors who already owned Rio Tinto shares heading into yesterday\u2019s trading, writing Covered Calls for income made a lot of sense, given the higher bids available. However, you would likely have to sell the shares to the buyer at expiration because the strike prices were so deep ITM.<\/p>\n<p>The ideal DTE for covered calls is generally 30 to 45 days, providing better income, but not too much time decay, so that you can profit from the trade, either by exiting the position, or the calls expiring worthless.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In yesterday\u2019s situation, the latter scenario wasn\u2019t possible with most of the unusually active options deep ITM. So, let\u2019s focus on the unusually active calls expiring in 43 days, on April 17, with Vol\/OI ratios of 28.77 or higher.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/wwcepdl8wmk7pghm.png\" width=\"2048\" height=\"379\"\/>As mentioned, all of these are significantly ITM, so you\u2019d likely have to sell your shares in April. Given the $80 call had 138,841 in volume yesterday, let\u2019s consider that strike price.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Based on the information above, let\u2019s assume you bought 100 shares of Rio Tinto a year ago for $6,400, or $64 a share. You received $12.70 in premium yesterday for selling one $80 call. That lowered your net cost per share to $51.30.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Now, assume the shares remain flat between now and then and are called away at expiration in April. You would receive $8,000 ($80 a share) plus $1,270 in premium, for $9,270. Your return would be 44.8% [$9,270 &#8211; $6,400 \/ $6,400], or 40.1% annualized [44.8% * 365 \/ (365 + 43)]. That\u2019s less than the 45.9% return (41.1% annualized) achieved without selling a call.<\/p>\n<p>However, now let\u2019s assume the shares fall to $80 by April 17. They likely expire worthless. You pocket the $1,270 in premium for an annualized return of 40.1%, considerably higher than 22.4% without selling a call.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>So, by selling calls deep in the money, you were protecting your downside, while capping your upside. Given the shares have gained 41% over the past 12 months, and Rio Tinto is prepared to go it alone, that seems like a wise bet.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>While most of yesterday&#8217;s volume was likely institutions rolling over their covered calls\u2014buying their existing calls to close and selling new ones to open for income with higher strike prices and further-out expiration dates\u2014some exercised their calls to capture the April dividend.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Both are bullish despite the negative net trade sentiment.<\/p>\n<p> On the date of publication, <a target=\"_self\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barchart.com\/news\/authors\/120\/will-ashworth\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Will Ashworth<\/a> did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy <a target=\"_self\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barchart.com\/terms#disclosure\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">here<\/a>. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As we head into the weekend and the second week of the Iran war, options volume is higher&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26850,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[132,1771],"class_list":{"0":"post-26849","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-glencore","8":"tag-glencore","9":"tag-n-a"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116183783382716390","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26849\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26850"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}