{"id":29424,"date":"2026-03-11T01:19:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T01:19:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/29424\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T01:19:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T01:19:20","slug":"has-the-recent-glencore-rally-already-priced-in-future-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/29424\/","title":{"rendered":"Has the Recent Glencore Rally Already Priced In Future Growth?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Wondering if Glencore is still good value after its recent run, or if the easy money has already been made? This article is going to walk through exactly what the current price is baking in.<\/p>\n

The stock has climbed 2.4% over the last week, 16.4% in the past month, and is up 7.5% year to date. That sits against a mixed backdrop of a 13.3% gain over 1 year, a 19.2% drop over 3 years, and a strong 112.3% rise over 5 years.<\/p>\n

Those swings have come as investors react to shifting commodity prices and ongoing debates around the pace of the energy transition, with Glencore often in the spotlight due to its large exposure to coal and battery metals. At the same time, headlines about potential portfolio reshuffles, buybacks and capital returns have kept the market guessing about how management will balance growth opportunities with shareholder payouts.<\/p>\n

On our framework Glencore scores a 3 out of 6 on valuation checks, suggesting some areas of potential undervaluation but not an across-the-board bargain. Next, we will unpack what different valuation approaches say about the stock, and then finish with a more holistic way to think about what it is really worth.<\/p>\n

Find out why Glencore’s 13.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.<\/a><\/p>\n

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and discounting those cash flows back to today. For Glencore, the starting point is its last twelve months of free cash flow of about $986.6 Million, which analysts expect to rise meaningfully in the coming years.<\/p>\n

Analyst and extrapolated estimates used in this 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model suggest free cash flow could exceed $4 Billion a year later this decade, with projections around $4.1 Billion to $4.8 Billion by 2035. Simply Wall St uses analyst forecasts where available, then extends the trend using its own assumptions for growth and gradual slowdown.<\/p>\n

When all those future cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $3.65 per share. Compared with the current market price, this implies Glencore is about 6.7% overvalued, which is a small gap that sits well within any reasonable margin of error.<\/p>\n

Result: ABOUT RIGHT<\/p>\n

Glencore is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)<\/a>, but this can change at a moment’s notice. Track the value in your watchlist<\/a> or portfolio<\/a> and be alerted on when to act.<\/p>\n

\"GLEN<\/a> GLEN Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025 <\/p>\n

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Glencore.<\/a><\/p>\n

For a large, cyclical resources company like Glencore, revenue tends to be more stable than earnings. The price to sales ratio is therefore a practical way to cut through short term profit swings and focus on what investors are paying for each dollar of sales.<\/p>\n

In general, companies with stronger growth prospects and lower risk are often valued on a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty can reduce that multiple. Glencore currently trades on a price to sales ratio of about 0.27x, which is dramatically below both the Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 3.18x and a broader peer group average of around 4.46x.<\/p>\n

Simply Wall St\u2019s Fair Ratio metric suggests that, after accounting for Glencore\u2019s specific growth outlook, margins, risk profile, industry and size, a price to sales multiple closer to 1.02x could be more appropriate. Because this framework is tailored to the company rather than relying solely on peer comparisons, it offers a more nuanced view of value. Compared with the current 0.27x, the Fair Ratio points to Glencore trading at a meaningful discount on a sales basis.<\/p>\n

Result: UNDERVALUED<\/p>\n

\"LSE:GLEN<\/a> LSE:GLEN PS Ratio as at Dec 2025 <\/p>\n

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1457 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your own story about Glencore with the numbers behind its future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value.<\/p>\n

A Narrative is your structured view of the company, where you spell out what you think will drive Glencore\u2019s business, translate that into a financial forecast, and then into a fair value that you can compare directly with today\u2019s share price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell.<\/p>\n

On Simply Wall St\u2019s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives as an easy, guided tool that stays up to date automatically when new earnings, news or forecasts come in. This means your valuation is not a static spreadsheet but a living view that adjusts as the facts change.<\/p>\n

For example, one Glencore Narrative might lean into rising copper volumes, efficiency gains and higher marketing earnings to justify a fair value near the top of current analyst targets. A more cautious Narrative might focus on decarbonization, regulatory and ESG risks to arrive at a fair value closer to the lower end, with each investor then acting when their chosen fair value diverges meaningfully from the market price.<\/p>\n

Do you think there’s more to the story for Glencore? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!<\/a><\/p>\n

\"LSE:GLEN<\/a> LSE:GLEN 1-Year Stock Price Chart <\/p>\n

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.<\/p>\n

Companies discussed in this article include GLEN.L<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch<\/a> with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Wondering if Glencore is still good value after its recent run, or if the easy money has already…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":996,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[1103,1104,1105,132],"class_list":{"0":"post-29424","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-glencore","8":"tag-dcf","9":"tag-fair-value","10":"tag-free-cash-flow","11":"tag-glencore"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116207915170839591","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29424\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}