Even after that strong reversal, crude remains far above the roughly $70 per barrel range where it traded before the U.S. and Israel launched their campaign against Iran on February 28.<\/p>\n
Against this backdrop, the energy analysts at UBS have been closely monitoring the situation and its implications for the energy sector. The bank believes the current setup still favors energy stocks and argues that geopolitical risk may not yet be fully reflected in market pricing.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe increase PTs and continue to see a positive risk\/reward for Energy\u2026 The longer the Middle East conflict goes on, the more upside we see to the entire curve. We do not believe the stocks and forward curve reflect that risk, as both have moved <3% since Feb 20th, the Friday before the conflict. We also see continued upward pressure on global natural gas prices due to potential Qatar supply concerns. Based on this setup, combo oil\/nat gas companies potentially have the most FCF upside,\u201d the team wrote.<\/p>\n
With that in mind, the UBS analysts have singled out two energy stocks they believe are particularly well positioned to benefit if oil prices remain elevated. Using the TipRanks database<\/a>, we took a closer look at how these picks stack up against the broader Wall Street consensus. Let\u2019s dive in.<\/p>\n Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)<\/p>\n We\u2019ll start in Houston, Texas, where Magnolia Oil & Gas operates as an independent producer in the hydrocarbon field. The company\u2019s footprint is in the southeastern part of the state, specifically in the areas of Giddings and Karnes; the company\u2019s Karnes holdings are considered a \u2018coveted\u2019 location, in the core of the Eagle Ford Shale formation.<\/p>\n What this means is that Magnolia works in some of Texas\u2019 richest oil and gas regions. The company had an average daily production in 4Q25 of 103.8 Mboe\/d; this figure indicated that the company\u2019s production accelerated during the year \u2013 for the full year 2025, average daily production came to 99.8 Mboe\/d. The Q4 production figure was up 11% from the final quarter of 2024. Production in the Giddings area, where Magnolia has its most extensive holdings, represented 79% of the total. Magnolia is targeting 5% production growth for 2026.<\/p>\n Like many energy producers, Magnolia pays out a reliable dividend to its investors. The company has been gradually raising that payment since 2022; the last declaration, made on January 29, was for a $0.165 payment on March 2 to common shareholders. At that rate, the dividend annualizes to 66 cents per common share and gives a forward yield of 2.3%.<\/p>\n Turning to the financials, in 4Q25, Magnolia reported $317.6 million in quarterly revenue. This was down 2.7% year-over-year, but it did beat the forecast by $3.89 million. The bulk of this revenue, over $215 million, came from oil production. Natural gas and natural gas liquids made up the remainder. Magnolia reported a 4Q diluted EPS of 37 cents; this was down 16% from the prior-year period, although it came in $0.01 ahead of the estimates.<\/p>\n UBS analyst Peyton Dorne counts several reasons why investors should get on board here. Dorne writes, \u201cWe lift our MGY PT from $29 to $35, largely reflecting our increase in our 2027E EV\/EBITDAX PT multiple from 4.85x to 5.75x. This is a premium to the 5.0x 5-year average multiple, which we see as warranted due to the higher near-term oil price levels, MGY\u2019s underlying inventory growth, and its successful track record in pairing shareholder returns with underlying volume growth. MGY remains our Top Pick amongst SMID Cap E&Ps because of its durable capital returns, balance sheet strength, and top tier capital efficiency, demonstrated by its peer leading reinvestment rate.\u201d<\/p>\n These comments support the analyst\u2019s Buy rating on the shares, while the $35 price target implies a one-year upside potential of ~20.5%. (To watch Dorne\u2019s track record, click here<\/a>)<\/p>\n The 16 recent analyst reviews on Magnolia split 9 to 7 in favor of Buy over Hold, all for a Moderate Buy consensus rating. It should be noted that shares are up by over 33% so far this year. As such, the $29.15 average price target suggests shares will stay rangebound for the time being. With this mind, watch out for either more price target hikes or rating downgrades shortly. (See MGY stock forecast<\/a>)<\/p>\n Chord Energy (CHRD)<\/p>\n For the next stock on our list, we\u2019ll head north, to the Williston Basin of the Dakotas and Montana. This region helped put hydraulic fracturing into the national lexicon, and made North Dakota a major name in the US oil industry. Chord Energy is an important player in the Williston\u2019s most famous oil-bearing formation, the Bakken Shale. The company\u2019s Bakken land holdings are located mainly in the northwestern corner of North Dakota, and extend westward just into Montana.<\/p>\n Chord describes itself as a premier operator in the Williston region, offering both enhanced scale and an inventory that is deep and low-cost. Chord boasts that it has a valuable combination of high-quality assets and low break-even costs on its holdings, which total some 1.3 million net acres. The company has 5 operated rigs and 57% of its reserves are oil.<\/p>\n Like Magnolia above, Chord has been paying out a steady dividend for several years. In its last declaration, announced in February for a March 27 payment, the company set a $1.30 dividend per common share. At this rate, the annualized payment of $5.20 per common share gives a solid forward yield of 4.22%, approximately one full percentage point above the current rate of inflation<\/a>.<\/p>\n In its last quarterly report, covering 4Q25, Chord reported a total of $1.17 billion in revenues. This figure was down 19% from the previous year, but it beat the forecast by $140 million. The company\u2019s adjusted diluted EPS of $1.28 was 4 cents per share better than had been anticipated.<\/p>\n Chord\u2019s cash flows in the quarter were sound. The company reported an adjusted free cash flow of $175 million, and stated that \u2018approximately 50%\u2019 of this figure was returned to shareholders. The return was made through both the common share dividend and the company\u2019s share buyback authorization.<\/p>\n In his coverage of Chord for UBS, analyst Josh Silverstein writes, \u201cWe see CHRD as amongst the largest beneficiaries of rising crude prices. With the increased near-term cash flow, we see CHRD as able to incrementally speed up its process to return leverage to sub-0.5x, enabling it to more quickly lift its capital returns from 50% of its Adj. FCF to 75%, boosting our forecast for the company\u2019s 2026 buybacks.\u201d<\/p>\n The 5-star analyst goes on to rate CHRD as a Buy, and complements that with a $142 price target, to imply a 15% gain over the next 12 months. (To watch Silverstein\u2019s track record, click here<\/a>)<\/p>\n Turning now to the general Street view, where this stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on 14 reviews that include 9 Buys to 5 Holds. CHRD shares are up by 33% year-to-date, and the current trading price of $123.22 and average target price of $127.50 together suggest just a modest 3.5% one-year gain. (See CHRD stock forecast<\/a>)<\/p>\n Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.<\/p>\n Disclaimer & Disclosure<\/a>Report an Issue<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Middle East has erupted into active warfare over the past eleven days, and all eyes are turning…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30591,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[18435,927,18436,18434,223],"class_list":{"0":"post-30590","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ubs","8":"tag-natural-gas-prices","9":"tag-oil-prices","10":"tag-oil-production","11":"tag-the-middle-east","12":"tag-ubs"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116215610404417333","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30590"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30590\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/a> <\/p>\n
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