{"id":34926,"date":"2026-03-19T09:23:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T09:23:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/34926\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T09:23:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T09:23:13","slug":"economists-predict-a-weak-economic-year-for-switzerland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/34926\/","title":{"rendered":"Economists predict a weak economic year for Switzerland"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"A<\/p>\n

Pressure from the US government could have a particular impact on prices in the pharmaceutical industry. <\/p>\n

Keystone \/ Georgios Kefalas <\/p>\n

The Swiss government\u2019s expert group expects economic growth of 1% \u2013 down from 1.1% forecast in December, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). This suggests the Swiss economy is likely to grow below average.\n<\/p>\n

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This content was published on <\/p>\n

March 19, 2026 – 09:34\n<\/p>\n

The Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich is also forecasting growth of 1%, but only if oil prices fall again soon. If oil prices remain at current levels for a longer period, growth of just 0.7% is expected for 2026. The forecasts for 2027 are 1.7% and 1.5% under a scenario of higher oil prices.<\/p>\n

Oil prices also have a significant impact on inflation: if they remain high, KOF expects inflation to reach 0.6% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027. If they fall, the figures are expected to be 0.3% and 0.6%.<\/p>\n

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\"petrol<\/p>\n

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Climate adaptation\n <\/p>\n

US oil buoys Swiss fossil fuel needs amid\u00a0Middle East conflict\u00a0 <\/p>\n

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Mar 17, 2026 <\/p>\n

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the global transport of oil and gas. A look at where the fossil fuels consumed in Switzerland come from. <\/p>\n

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Read more: US oil buoys Swiss fossil fuel needs amid\u00a0Middle East conflict\u00a0
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Private consumption as a pillar<\/p>\n

Regardless of oil prices and the war in Iran, the global economy is currently growing only moderately, according to the already cautious outlook for 2026. In the Eurozone \u2013 and especially in Germany \u2013 there are at least signs of improvement, reflected in the higher forecast for 2027.<\/p>\n

\u2018Switzerland is less vulnerable\u2019 <\/p>\n

Assessment by Swiss public broadcaster, SRF economics editor Jan Baumann<\/p>\n

Switzerland is likely to be spared an economic crisis \u2013 despite the conflict in the Middle East \u2013 according to forecasts by the Swiss government and KOF. The Swiss economy is less vulnerable to international oil and gas price rises.<\/p>\n

Swiss industry is relatively less energy-intensive and the service sector (finance, trade, IT, tourism, etc.) carries more weight. Added to this is the strength of the Swiss franc: it makes it cheaper for companies and consumers to buy abroad, thus dampening inflation.<\/p>\n

However, risks remain. For example, the US tariff dispute could flare up again. As a strongly export-orientated economy, Switzerland would then be more exposed than average \u2013 unlike the oil price.<\/p>\n

Private consumption continues to play an important role. It has recently remained robust. According to KOF experts, this is likely to continue despite a weak labour market \u2013 thanks to low inflation and stable wage growth. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly until mid-2026, before easing somewhat.<\/p>\n

The Swiss government\u2019s savings plans and weak corporate investment, on the other hand, are weighing on the economy. Companies are investing little due to weak earnings and economic policy uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Recent tariff relief vis-\u00e0-vis the United States has improved the outlook for parts of industry. However, this is partly offset by increased geopolitical uncertainty.<\/p>\n

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Global trade\n <\/p>\n

Global trade under strain: why rules still matter for nations like Switzerland <\/p>\n

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Dec 23, 2025 <\/p>\n

Former chief economist of the WTO, Ralph Ossa, explains why economies such as Switzerland need to defend and adapt the rules-based system. <\/p>\n

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Read more: Global trade under strain: why rules still matter for nations like Switzerland
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Pressure from the US as a risk<\/p>\n

Overall, KOF economists say the risks to the forecast are considerable \u2013 and \u201cpredominantly\u201d on the downside. In particular, they warn that pressure from the US government to lower pharmaceutical prices could significantly affect the Swiss pharma sector.<\/p>\n

It is also unclear whether promised investments by Swiss companies in the US will lead to relocation effects, further dampening investment activity in Switzerland.<\/p>\n

The conflict in the Middle East also poses risks \u2013 due to oil and gas prices, as well as potential disruptions to supply chains. According to the experts, a further appreciation of the Swiss franc as a result of the crisis could also weaken Swiss exports.<\/p>\n

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\"Newsletter<\/p>\n

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Switzerland in a fast-moving world. Join us to follow the latest Swiss foreign policy developments. We offer the perfect immersive package. <\/p>\n

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Read more: Our newsletter on geopolitics
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Articles in this story <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Pressure from the US government could have a particular impact on prices in the pharmaceutical industry. Keystone \/…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":34927,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[4],"tags":[101,3931,114,331,2143,15197,460,334,3381,17],"class_list":["post-34926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-switzerland","tag-article","tag-beat-best-of-srg-content","tag-business","tag-explain-it-to-me","tag-foreign-affairs","tag-macro-economics","tag-multi","tag-production-type-adaptation","tag-society","tag-switzerland"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116255116701030581","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34926","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34926"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34926\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34926"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34926"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34926"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}