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The European study showed that among those surveyed 36% support most climate proposals and 21% oppose them. Another 33% make up the \u201cconditional middle\u201d, whose views shift depending on the details of each policy. <\/p>\n
Keystone \/ Anthony Anex <\/p>\n
Swiss voters roundly rejected the country\u2019s recent \u201cclimate fund\u201d vote, yet climate change still ranks among their top worries. A new study published in March suggests a reason why climate-conscious voters might reject eco-friendly initiatives. As in much of Europe, the success of climate initiatives relies on a large \u201cconditional middle\u201d \u2013 voters who care about the climate but judge each proposal through a personal cost\u2013benefit lens, the lead researcher tells Swissinfo in an interview.\n<\/p>\n
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March 24, 2026 – 10:00\n<\/p>\n
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\n I am a climate and science\/technology reporter. I am interested in the effects of climate change on everyday life and scientific solutions.
\nBorn in London, I am a dual citizen of Switzerland and the UK. After studying modern languages and translation, I trained as a journalist and joined swissinfo.ch in 2006. My working languages are English, German, French and Spanish. <\/p>\n
The debate over such climate policy initiatives often centres on those firmly pro or con, and far less is known about the large group in between. The new study of 19,000 people in 13 countries of the European Union\u00a0published in the Nature Climate ChangeExternal link<\/a> scientific journal sheds light on this influential segment.<\/p>\n The researchers found that among the Europeans surveyed 36% support most climate proposals and 21% oppose them. Another 33% make up the \u201cconditional middle\u201d, whose views shift depending on the details of each policy.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile we hear and see a lot from the people who are really for climate action or the people who are really against it, in fact, these are just two visible groups that may actually be in the minority,\u201d Keith Smith, a senior researcher at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich who led the survey, explains to Swissinfo.<\/p>\n This means the large swing group in the middle matters most for climate issues, said Smith, who is chair of international political economy and environmental politics at the university.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s really this group that really determines whether we have political majorities\u2026 and the feasibility of climate change policies across Europe,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n Switzerland, which is not an EU member state, wasn\u2019t part of the survey, but Smith believes the conditional middle in the Alpine state represents a major segment \u2013 \u201cmaybe the largest of the four\u201d \u2013 given how actively Swiss voters engage with climate issues and evaluate proposals case by case. This could be as much as one million potential voters.<\/p>\n Voting on climate-related issues is common in Switzerland. In the ten years since countries in Paris committed to cut global carbon emissions, Swiss voters have gone to the ballot box<\/a> at least as many times to decide on climate issues, giving a range of results. Most recently, 71% of voters rejected a \u201cclimate fund\u201d initiative<\/a> on March 8 which called for 0.5-1% of Switzerland\u2019s GDP a year \u2013 roughly CHF4-8\u00a0billion (2024 figure) \u2013 to be invested in climate and nature protection measures and in expanding renewable energies, including solar power.<\/p>\n \n More<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Climate adaptation\n <\/p>\n Ten years of Swiss climate votes since the Paris Agreement <\/p>\n This content was published on <\/p>\n Nov 21, 2025 <\/p>\n From Paris to the polls: in Switzerland, direct democracy means that climate policy is a public \u2013 and recurring \u2013 issue. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read more: Ten years of Swiss climate votes since the Paris Agreement Cost-benefit balance<\/p>\n The \u201cclimate fund\u201d vote result reflects a key finding of the EU study: personal cost\u2013benefit assessments often decide where the conditional middle lands. Across Europe, people prefer policies that help households and businesses switch to greener practices \u2013 such as subsidies \u2013 over measures with visible financial impacts like taxes or restrictions.<\/p>\n The Swiss result showed voters do not want to increase public climate funding, or at least not in the form advocated by left-wing or green parties. In the current context it is difficult to achieve consensus around a proposal that entails costs but which nobody knows how to finance, says Clo\u00e9 Jans, a political scientist at the gfs.bern research institute.<\/p>\n \n More<\/p>\n More <\/p>\n Swiss Politics\n <\/p>\n Climate is a concern in Switzerland but no longer a priority <\/p>\n This content was published on <\/p>\n Mar 8, 2026 <\/p>\n Climate change is one of the main concerns of the Swiss population. However, most citizens don\u2019t want to invest more money in the ecological transition. Why? <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read more: Climate is a concern in Switzerland but no longer a priority Smith reckons this latest Swiss vote should not be seen as climate indifference. Rather, many voters likely hesitated because the initiative was vague about both funding sources and spending priorities. \u201cIt was a long list of pretty much everything,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n People are willing to accept some costs for climate action, he adds, \u201cas long as they see that where the money comes from is fair and that where it goes is also fairly distributed.\u201d<\/p>\n Policy design or communication?<\/p>\n So how should policymakers in Switzerland and the rest of Europe interpret the results of the climate policy survey? Is the challenge a matter of design or communication? \u201cBoth,\u201d says Smith.<\/p>\n He gives the example of Switzerland\u2019s CO2 levyExternal link<\/a>. The federal government levies a duty of CHF120 ($152) on every tonne of CO2 produced when heating oil, natural gas and other fossil fuels are burned. Two-thirds of the revenue is redistributed to the public via a health insurance rebate \u2013 yet few people realise this. \u201cWe make the cost visible and the benefits invisible,\u201d says Smith.<\/p>\n As to which climate policy instruments might work best in Switzerland, the ETH Zurich researcher believes there is no simple answer. He says incentive-based policies \u2013 for example, subsidies that encourage homeowners and businesses to improve the energy efficiency of buildings \u2013 may be more politically feasible than tax-heavy ones. \u201cSometimes perfect can be the enemy of the good,\u201d he notes, referring to those on the political left or in the Green Party who continue to push for strong climate change action.<\/p>\n Among other findings, the EU study also shows that people are enthusiastic for policies that support making pro-climate adjustments, rather than complete bans on certain products or practices. A proposed general ban on combustion-engine cars was rejected by 73% of the conditional middle in the survey, but rejection drops to 39% if synthetic-fuel alternatives remain possible \u2013 showing how \u201celastic\u201d this group can be.<\/p>\n
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