![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Strait-of-Hormuz-2048x1366.jpg\")
<\/p>\nBy Marco Duarte Rizzolio, Ex-Reuters (Financial & Risk), entrepreneur<\/p>\n
The U.S. can only blame itself and Trump for a situation that is worse than when they were practically ready to sign a deal with Iran in Geneva on uranium enrichment, which was the core of the problem. Instead of closing that deal, the U.S. bombed Iran while negotiations were still underway. Trump bet on regime change that never happened, fully knowing the risks of an Iranian response at the Strait of Hormuz. Why he radically changed course and entered this war alongside Israel, only he knows.<\/p>\n
Because of this, negotiations have broken down for now. Just over five weeks ago, the U.S. and Iran were discussing the exact same things, but if and when they return to the table, the terms will have fundamentally changed. Iran now holds an advantage it did not have before: control of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Financially, this conflict has hurt Washington, but the biggest damage is America\u2019s diminishing geopolitical influence, and for the rest of the world, an economic impact that is still unfolding. U.S. treaty allies are now negotiating directly with Iran for Strait of Hormuz transit access, effectively acknowledging Iranian control over the world\u2019s most critical supply chokepoint, not just for oil, but for helium, fertiliser feedstocks, and other commodities the global economy cannot function without. Meanwhile, the war pulled American military assets out of the Pacific. <\/p>\n
Aircraft carriers, Marines, and Patriot systems have all been redeployed to the Middle East since 28 February. Some American media have called this a \u2018strategic opening\u2019 for Beijing.<\/p>\n
As the world changes, smaller countries need to step up. Spain, under Pedro S\u00e1nchez, has shown real courage in speaking out against the U.S. and Israel. Portugal should stand right next to Spain<\/p>\n
Economically, the conflict has roughly quadrupled Iran\u2019s oil revenue and given Russia billions in additional monthly earnings with the lifting of the oil embargo. Every bilateral deal between Iran and U.S. allies is also weakening the petrodollar system that American power depends on.<\/p>\n
Amidst these challenges, China has emerged in a highly favourable position. For the past decade, Western business leaders believed that \u2018data is the new oil\u2019. But computers and technology still need real energy to run, and China understood this better than anyone. <\/p>\n
China spent the last ten years preparing for a crisis like this. They built oil and gas pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, saved huge amounts of oil during COVID-19, and became the world leader in green energy and electric cars. Recently, China used its diplomatic power as Iran\u2019s biggest oil buyer (buying 1.5 million barrels a day) to push Iran toward a ceasefire. Trump himself confirmed it when asked if China had persuaded Iran: \u2018I heard yes.\u2019<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The ceasefire talks in Islamabad have failed to produce a deal. Both the American and Iranian delegations have now left, with no further discussions scheduled for today, Sunday. Vice President Vance, who led the American delegation, stated he had not seen a commitment from Tehran and declared the U.S. had made its \u2018best and final offer\u2019. The Strait of Hormuz remained the critical and ultimately unbridgeable sticking point.<\/p>\n
With the ceasefire process having collapsed, it is now unclear whether the planned U.S. and China meeting in Beijing on 14 and 15 May will go ahead at all. If it does take place, it could still prove a decisive moment, but that is far from certain. Regardless of what happens next, the damage is already done. This crisis is no longer just about oil. It is reshaping alliances and trade flows, elevating China\u2019s role in Gulf security, and permanently diminishing America\u2019s.<\/p>\n
As the world changes, smaller countries need to step up. Spain, under Pedro S\u00e1nchez, has shown real courage in speaking out against the U.S. and Israel. Portugal should stand right next to Spain. Alone, they are two small countries in Europe. But together, their voice is very strong. Spanish and Portuguese are spoken by over a billion people. <\/p>\n
The economies tied to those two languages across Latin America alone represent a major share of global GDP. Portugal also sits at some unique crossroads with longstanding ties with China through Macau and deep relationships across Lusophone Africa. In a world that is clearly realigning, that kind of reach matters. When these two nations speak together, the signal travels well beyond the Iberian Peninsula.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Marco Duarte Rizzolio, Ex-Reuters (Financial & Risk), entrepreneur The U.S. can only blame itself and Trump for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47985,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[7],"tags":[351,65,272,27630,27631,3828],"class_list":["post-47984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-geneva","tag-china","tag-geneva","tag-international","tag-macau","tag-mna","tag-opinion"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116397067748390680","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47984","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47984"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47984\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47984"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47984"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47984"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}