Someone is very wrong.<\/p>\n
UBS upgraded Tesla to Neutral from Sell, raising its target to $352, a small decrease on the current price. <\/p>\n
Analyst Joseph Spak said the risk-reward has improved but conceded the stock trades more on sentiment and narrative than fundamentals. <\/p>\n
He flagged soft EV demand, higher costs, and slow progress on robotaxi and Optimus as near-term drags. TSLA rose 2% in premarket on the upgrade<\/a>.<\/p>\n JPMorgan went the other direction. Analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated his Underweight rating and $145 target, pointing to Q1 deliveries of 358,023 that missed consensus by roughly 4%. <\/p>\n Tesla built over 50,000 more cars than it sold during the quarter. <\/p>\n Brinkman called the inventory pileup a free cash flow problem and warned traders to approach the name with a high degree of caution<\/a>.<\/p>\n What Prediction Markets Say<\/p>\n UBS is betting that robotaxi and Optimus eventually justify the valuation. Prediction market traders are not convinced they arrive on schedule.<\/p>\n On Polymarket, a California robotaxi launch by June 30 is priced<\/a> at 11%. That may be generous. <\/p>\n Tesla logged zero autonomous test miles in California in 2025 for the sixth straight year, and the DMV confirmed the company hasn\u2019t applied for permits beyond the entry-level tier.<\/p>\n Optimus hitting public sale<\/a> by the same date sits at 6%. <\/p>\n On Kalshi<\/a>, the odds of Optimus shipping this year are around 17%. Musk acknowledged on the Q4 2025 earnings call that no Optimus units are doing \u201cuseful work\u201d yet \u2014 they remain in the learning and data collection phase.<\/p>\n The bigger picture may be more telling. <\/p>\n