![\"Copper](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/fa0d26d1f9c35c0f5e69d7e82d285d0b.jpeg\")
Copper near record highs but inventory overhang clouds near-term outlook, says UBS Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock <\/p>\n Copper near record highs but inventory overhang clouds near-term outlook, says UBS Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock <\/p>\n
Copper has rebounded close to record highs above $13,000 per tonne following signs of Middle East de-escalation and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but UBS warns that elevated global inventories and mixed demand signals mean the near-term price outlook is balanced rather than bullish.<\/p>\n
The Swiss bank remains structurally positive on copper over the medium term, arguing that the fundamental case based on supply constraints and resilient energy transition demand is unchanged and arguably more compelling in the wake of the conflict.<\/p>\n
However, UBS says global visible copper inventories have reached close to record levels at 1.25 million tonnes, representing a stock-to-consumption ratio of 2.5 weeks, the highest since 2018, and that sustained deficits will be needed to erode this buffer before real physical tightness emerges.<\/p>\n
On the supply side, UBS forecasts mine production growth of less than 1% in 2026, with output from Chile down 4% year to date and Codelco facing a further 6% decline due to ongoing challenges at El Teniente following a seismic event last year.<\/p>\n
A recovery in mine supply is expected in 2027 and 2028 as disrupted operations, including Cobre Panama, Grasberg, and Collahuasi return to fuller capacity, adding more than 1.2 million tonnes of production, but UBS does not believe this will be sufficient to prevent deficits given demand growth of 2-3% per year driven by electrification, grid investment, and electric vehicles.<\/p>\n
Demand signals are divergent, with China drawing down inventories encouragingly since the Chinese New Year, while signals from Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia remain lacklustre.<\/p>\n
On equities, UBS favours a selective approach, preferring First Quantum, Anglo American, Teck Resources, and KGHM over Southern Copper, Antofagasta, and Lundin Mining.<\/p>\n
First Quantum is highlighted as a compelling value play, with recent government approval for processing stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama seen as a material step towards a restart of the mothballed operation.<\/p>\n
UBS forecasts copper at $5.21 per pound in 2026, rising to $5.75 in 2027.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Copper near record highs but inventory overhang clouds near-term outlook, says UBS Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":51965,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[2701,29497,29496,223,1966],"class_list":{"0":"post-51964","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ubs","8":"tag-copper","9":"tag-demand-growth","10":"tag-southern-copper","11":"tag-ubs","12":"tag-ubs-proactive"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116436436594467961","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51964","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51964"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51964\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51964"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51964"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51964"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}