sporting goods sector<\/a> was a major beneficiary of the pandemic as more consumers shifted wallet share toward outdoor activities, the UBS analyst noted that those trends have started \u201cto normalize.\u201d As of the third quarter of 2025, sporting goods retailers generated $57.6 billion in TTM sales, just 7 percent below the all-time high, he said.<\/p>\n\n\t\u201cWe believe downside pressure on the category is limited, as sales have stabilized at elevated levels despite broader pressure on discretionary spending,\u201d he said. \u201cThis resilience likely reflects sports and health activities becoming more embedded in consumers\u2019 daily routines.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n\tFootwear is also sold in off-price retailers and in department stores, but the latter is a distribution channel where the footprint has decreased modestly in recent quarters. According to data supplied by Lasser, the TTM sales of department stores as of the third quarter of 2025, totaled nearly $39 billion and fell 4 percent versus year-ago levels. He said further store closures are expected, and could come from Macy\u2019s and JC Penney. Saks and Neiman Marcus are in the process of closing a handful of stores during Saks Global\u2019s Chapter 11 bankruptcy process.<\/p>\n
\n\t\u201cWe believe continued market share losses \u2014 primarily against off-price retailers and brands\u2019 own DTC channels \u2014 will keep department store sales under pressure,\u201d Lasser said.<\/p>\n
\n\tShoes are also sold at mass merchandisers, such as Walmart, Target and Costco. Their average sales per square foot reached $1.04 billion, or a 5.2 percent CAGR (compound annual growth rate) over the past 10 years. The TTM sales per store at mass merchants were $12.44 million as of the third quarter of 2025. <\/p>\n
\n\tLasser said that shifting consumer behavior has contributed to the ongoing trend of consolidation as more retailers shut stores. <\/p>\n
\n\tOnline sales now account for 22 percent of total U.S. retail sales, up from 11 percent in 2019. He said the rise of agentic shopping \u2014 systems that use AI agents to autonomously find products based on user prompts \u2014 will result in higher rates of e-commerce adoption. Because AI agents are \u201cless swayed by splashy marketing campaigns\u201d and other factors such as childhood connections and nostalgia, Lasser said that retailers should \u201cincreasingly be distinguished by the attributes of speed, location, assortment, experience, and price.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n\tWith the combination of e-commerce and AI-enabled shopping siphoning sales away from physical stores that, in turn, reduce the revenue needed to sustain large store fleets, even retailer with strong onien offerings are learning that they as meet demand with fewer physical locations, leveraging home delivery and curbside pickup. Moreover, shoppers now visit streos more purposefully and less frequently. <\/p>\n
\n\tShould 40,000 stores close over the next five years, that would reduce the total number of retailer stores in the U.S. to 907,000 by 2030 from 947,000 doors at the end of the third quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n
\n\tOf the various distribution channels in retail, Lasser said small chains and independent retailers face the highest risk. These small chains between 2010 and 2019 shuttered 40,000 locations. \u201cAlthough this trend briefly reversed from 2019 to 2021 due to the pandemic, we view that period as an exception rather than a structural change\u201d Lasser said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UBS analyst Michael Lasser predicts there will be 40,000-plus U.S. store closures over the next five years, although…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56832,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[31744,31745,31746,15170,31747,31748,31749,223],"class_list":{"0":"post-56831","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ubs","8":"tag-academy-sports-outdoors","9":"tag-deckers","10":"tag-dicks-sporting-goods","11":"tag-on-running","12":"tag-sourcing-journal","13":"tag-store-closings","14":"tag-store-openings","15":"tag-ubs"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116481416496969332","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56831"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56831\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}