![\"UBS,](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Artificialintelligence.jpg\"\/)
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Together with UBS Global Wealth Management, Swiss private bank Bank J Safra Sarasin shares its insights on the macroeconomic outlook and asset allocation, indicating a preference for US and emerging market equities.
\n
\n\t \t \t \t <\/p>\n
\n Like a number of wealth managers, Claudio Wewel, FX strategist at
\n Bank J
\n Safra Sarasin<\/a> continues to favor US and emerging market
\n equities in 2026, driven by tech, despite higher oil prices
\n amidst the Middle East conflict.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Wewel highlighted that emerging market equities were the top
\n performers, rising by close to 15 per cent in April, followed by
\n US equities. \u201cBoth have been largely driven by the stellar
\n performance in the semiconductor space, which continues to
\n benefit from the buildout of AI-related infrastructure,\u201d he said
\n in a note this week. \u201cEuropean and UK equities lagged. Fixed
\n income markets stabilized as policy rate hike expectations
\n moderated, while gold extended its recent consolidation.\u201d
\n<\/p>\n
\n \u201cThe US economy continues to demonstrate robustness, with
\n above-trend growth, supported by expansionary fiscal policy and
\n AI-related capital expenditure. Given energy self-sufficiency,
\n the growth impact from higher oil prices should be less severe in
\n the US than in other advanced economies,\u201d Wewel continued. The
\n inflation impact, however, is more visible. He expects US
\n inflation to reach 3.5 per cent in 2026, while GDP growth should
\n moderate to 2 per cent.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Wewel believes that the euro area remains more vulnerable to the
\n energy shock than the US, given its dependence on imported energy
\n and the higher weight of energy-intensive sectors. \u201cGermany\u2019s
\n large fiscal program\u00a0will continue to support demand, but
\n higher oil and gas prices are a key risk to the recovery and have
\n begun to weigh on sentiment indicators,\u201d he continued. For the
\n current year, he expects euro area growth to moderate to 0.9 per
\n cent and inflation to increase to 2.4 per cent. He expects the
\n European Central Bank (ECB) to hike rates in June and September
\n to ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored. The
\n UK economy looks more fragile, with weak growth, high energy
\n sensitivity and limited policy support. As a result, he expects
\n the Bank of England to hike only once in 2026.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Wewel said that Asia remains disproportionately exposed to the
\n closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as many economies rely heavily
\n on Middle Eastern energy imports. Japan faces a difficult mix of
\n looser fiscal policy, elevated inflation and higher import costs.
\n Still, he expects the Bank of Japan to hike twice this year,
\n although the war is reducing\u00a0the case for further tightening
\n in 2027. \u201cChina is better positioned than most oil importers. It
\n is the world\u2019s largest crude oil importer, but oil accounts for
\n only around one-fifth of its energy consumption, and retail
\n fuel-price controls limit the pass-through to consumer
\n inflation,\u201d he said. Exports, especially green-tech goods, remain
\n strong, while new investment projects should support domestic
\n demand. He expects Chinese growth of 4.5 per cent in 2026, with
\n inflation rising to 1.5 per cent.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Equities
\n \u201cGlobal equities have risen to a new all-time high in April, with
\n the US and emerging markets outpacing Europe and Japan,\u201d Wewel
\n said. He favors emerging market and US equities, as emerging
\n market earnings are supported by Taiwan and Korea\u2019s technology
\n cycle and should benefit from a weaker dollar later this year.
\n Regionally, he is more cautious on the euro area after its strong
\n run and on Japan, where high valuations and the high sensitivity
\n to the yen increasingly suggest downside risks.
\n<\/p>\n
\n In terms of sectors, Wewel prefers technology, communication
\n services, utilities and healthcare. He is less constructive on
\n staples, where valuations look stretched and is cautious on
\n energy, as oil prices should normalize toward\u00a0year-end.
\n<\/p>\n
\n \u201cThe financial results from the reporting season that has just
\n begun are meeting high expectations and point to a generally
\n positive growth momentum. The high oil price, however, remains
\n the greatest risk to the global economy, although the impact
\n varies across different regions,\u201d Wewel continued. For this
\n reason, he has taken profits and reduced his equity allocation
\n slightly. Nevertheless, he remains slightly overweight in
\n equities and slightly underweight in bonds. He sees the outlook
\n for duration improving, although carry is likely to remain the
\n main driver of returns in 2026. Wewel retains a preference for
\n intermediate maturities of five to seven years. Credit spreads
\n have widened only moderately and remain close to historic lows.
\n He\u00a0stays neutral on credit, as current spreads do not yet
\n justify a structural underweight.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Within equities, Wewel\u00a0continues to favor emerging markets.
\n He also maintains slight overweight positions in gold and
\n commodities. His increased cash holdings also allow him to seize
\n opportunities in this dynamic market environment.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Wewel is not alone in his views. Mark Haefele, chief investment
\n officer at UBS
\n Global Wealth Management<\/a>, believes that Asia”s resilience
\n should continue amid strong earnings and appealing valuations.
\n \u201cAsia Pacific has led the gains across global equities this year,
\n with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rising 16 per cent year to
\n date,\u201d Haefele said in a note this week. Absent of a prolonged
\n energy shock, he believes this resilience can last. Structural
\n forces such as\u00a0the AI boom continue to be a powerful growth
\n engine for the region, and most Asian economies remain on a solid
\n growth trajectory. He continues to see a strong case for Asia
\n Pacific markets, including China and South Korea, and believes
\n that investors should consider opportunities beyond the US for
\n diversification. Like a number of wealth managers, Edmund Shing
\n at BNP Paribas Wealth Management also favors
\n gold and emerging market equities in 2026,<\/a> despite volatility
\n arising from the conflict.
\n<\/p>\n
\n Although US stocks declined on Monday as renewed tensions in the
\n Middle East pushed oil prices higher and heightened concerns
\n about regional instability, Haefele still\u00a0maintains a
\n positive outlook for US equities. He sees opportunities across
\n financials, healthcare, industrials, utilities, and consumer
\n discretionary. He believes there is room for US equities to move
\n higher by the end of the year, as corporate earnings continue to
\n show strong profit growth. US equities remain near record levels
\n and big tech results last week confirmed sustained AI demand.
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