A returning passenger from the hantavirus-stricken MV Hondius cruise ship tested positive in Switzerland on Wednesday, the first off-ship case from an outbreak that has killed three people on board. <\/p>\n
He is one of roughly 23 passengers who scattered home from Saint Helena on April 23, before contact tracing began.<\/p>\n
The man initially tested negative on returning home, but the Andes virus can incubate for as long as eight weeks, the World Health Organization said.<\/p>\n
The Hondius set sail from Ushuaia, Argentina, on April 1, and within 10 days the first passenger was dead. Argentine investigators believe he and his wife, who later died in a Johannesburg hospital, contracted the virus on a pre-cruise birdwatching tour at a local landfill. A German woman became the third fatality on May 2.<\/p>\n
Prediction Markets See A Contained Cluster<\/p>\n
Polymarket thinks there is a 10% chance<\/a> we see a Hantavirus pandemic in 2026. The market has over $600,000 in volume. <\/p>\n The broader \u201cnew pandemic in 2026\u201d market<\/a> is at 12%. <\/p>\n Prominent forecaster Peter Wildeford put the pandemic risk at under 1% in a post on X<\/a> this week, citing Andes\u2019 three-decade record of self-extinguishing outbreaks. <\/p>\n The largest documented Andes cluster, in Epuy\u00e9n, Argentina in 2018-19, produced 34 cases and 11 deaths before contact tracing contained it.<\/p>\n Why Andes Doesn\u2019t Spread Like COVID<\/p>\n Unlike COVID, Andes does not spread through casual airborne exposure. It is the only hantavirus capable of person-to-person transmission, but the virus moves through large saliva droplets and requires close, prolonged contact such as shared cabins or caregiving.<\/p>\n