{"id":63187,"date":"2026-05-11T04:31:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T04:31:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/63187\/"},"modified":"2026-05-11T04:31:31","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T04:31:31","slug":"carbon-costs-fuel-choices-and-uncertainty-shape-geneva-dry-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/63187\/","title":{"rendered":"Carbon costs, fuel choices and uncertainty shape Geneva Dry debate"},"content":{"rendered":"

The dry bulk sector\u2019s decarbonisation debate has moved decisively beyond whether shipping will reach net zero and is now centred on how the industry can make the transition work commercially in an increasingly uncertain world.<\/p>\n

That was the clear message from the Dry Decarbonisation panel, the second session on day two of last month\u2019s Geneva Dry conference, where owners, charterers, analysts and operators discussed how the pathway toward lower emissions has evolved since the event\u2019s inaugural edition two years ago.<\/p>\n

Moderated by World Economic Forum lead industry and climate nexus Mette Asmussen, the discussion focused on the practical realities of the transition, from fuel choices and efficiency upgrades to carbon pricing, regulation and who ultimately pays for cleaner shipping.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are two things that are important for decarbonisation,\u201d Asmussen said at the outset. \u201cConstant care\u201d and \u201cagility\u201d.<\/p>\n

Eman Abdalla, founder and chief executive of Seathrew Marine, said the industry\u2019s mindset had shifted significantly since the previous Geneva Dry gathering.<\/p>\n

\u201cTwo years ago we were discussing if decarbonisation is something we all believe in or not,\u201d she said. \u201cToday the question is not necessarily if, instead it\u2019s how and by when.\u201d<\/p>\n

Abdalla argued that despite geopolitical instability and regulatory uncertainty, shipping had still made progress through pilot projects, operational efficiency gains, energy-saving devices and dual-fuel newbuildings.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow is the time for scalability,\u201d she said. \u201cThe focus should be on how we are going to make investable decisions going forward.\u201d<\/p>\n

Much of the debate centred on the economic reality facing dry bulk shipping, where margins remain thinner than in tanker or container markets.<\/p>\n

Alastair Stevenson, head of digital analysis at SSY, said carbon costs have a proportionally bigger impact on bulk shipping economics.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the dry market especially, it\u2019s over time quite a low-margin business,\u201d he said, adding that EU emissions costs can account for 1% to 2% of cargo value in bulk trades, compared with fractions of a percent in other shipping sectors.<\/p>\n

Stevenson argued that the real burden of decarbonisation goes beyond fuel and emissions costs, extending into legal, compliance and contractual complexity.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe decarbonisation cost is much more than the relatively simple monetary cost,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Vale\u2019s global head of chartering Michelle Gonzalez detailed how the Brazilian mining giant has spent years pushing shipping efficiency measures through partnerships with owners and technology suppliers.<\/p>\n

The company has invested heavily in scope 3 emissions initiatives and aims to reduce shipping emissions by 15% by 2035.<\/p>\n

Gonzalez said Vale has spent more than 15 years testing technologies ranging from advanced hull coatings and propeller upgrades to wind propulsion systems.<\/p>\n

\u201cI dare to say that Vale controls the biggest fleet at this moment of vessels with wind propulsion,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

While some trials delivered mixed results, Gonzalez stressed that failure was part of the learning process.<\/p>\n

\u201cEvery single pilot is better than the previous one,\u201d she said. \u201cInnovation is so fast.\u201d<\/p>\n

Several speakers pointed to wind-assisted propulsion as one of the most promising short-term solutions for bulk shipping.<\/p>\n

Klaveness Combination Carriers chief executive Engebret Dahm said wind-assist systems currently offered one of the best combinations of lower capital costs and performance gains.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe test it out, we trial it, and if it works, we implement it and scale it on our whole fleet,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Dahm also highlighted operational measures such as AI-based weather routing and digital optimisation systems as relatively low-cost ways to cut emissions immediately.<\/p>\n

Louis Dreyfus Company shipping decarbonisation lead Fabian Kowatsch repeatedly stressed the importance of collaboration between owners and charterers.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is very important to build projects between owners and charterers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The agricultural trading giant has worked with owners on coatings, engine optimisation and fuel-efficiency projects, growing from a single decarbonisation initiative in 2022 to 14 collaborative projects last year.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe can still find a lot of win-wins in this industry if we listen to each other,\u201d Kowatsch said.<\/p>\n

The panel repeatedly returned to the idea that fuel flexibility and optionality are becoming increasingly important as uncertainty clouds the regulatory landscape.<\/p>\n

Vale recently made headlines with its ethanol-fuel plans, while Louis Dreyfus has methanol dual-fuel vessels on order.<\/p>\n

Gonzalez described ethanol and methanol as practical early-stage solutions because they are already relatively mature and commercially accessible.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe like quick wins,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Still, owners remained cautious about committing to expensive fuel transitions without regulatory clarity or customer support.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe do not do huge investments in our ships to make them ready to burn new type of fuels unless we have predictable and effective regulations,\u201d Dahm said.<\/p>\n

He added that owners currently lacked both firm regulations and customers willing to fully pay for greener ships.<\/p>\n

Abdalla argued that uncertainty itself has now become permanent.<\/p>\n

\u201cUncertainty is structural,\u201d she said. \u201cYou need to embed uncertainty in your strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n

That means balancing immediate efficiency upgrades with long-term flexibility on future fuels and technologies.<\/p>\n

The thorny question of who ultimately funds decarbonisation also resurfaced throughout the session.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs an industry, we are here to serve other industrial players,\u201d Abdalla said. \u201cUnless they are willing to pay for decarbonisation one way or the other, we\u2019re not going to be able to invest and fund it ourselves.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dahm countered that the overall cost impact on end consumers remains relatively small.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s basically nothing,\u201d he said, referring to the impact of shipping decarbonisation on the final cost of goods such as cars or grain.<\/p>\n

Audience questions brought further discussion on wind propulsion technologies, charter-party reform and LNG.<\/p>\n

On LNG, Dahm argued the fuel still offers meaningful emissions reductions despite criticism from some parts of the industry.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt actually delivers quite large emission reductions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Stevenson warned, however, that shipping may eventually compete with other industries for access to low-carbon fuels.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe shipping sector always finds a way and always finds the lowest-cost way,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

As the session closed, panelists agreed that the industry now needs faster implementation rather than more debate.<\/p>\n

\u201cStart slow, start with small investment, but start,\u201d Gonzalez said. \u201cDecarbonisation is there. There is no way back.\u201d<\/p>\n

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