Ceres Power Holdings PLC (LSE:CWR, OTC:CPWHF)<\/a>, the clean energy technology group, jumped 17% to 779.3p on Friday after UBS raised its price target to 970p from 570p, citing a dramatic increase in expected royalty income from manufacturing partners.<\/p>\nThe investment bank, which reiterated its buy rating, said it had increased its forecast for cumulative solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) shipments by 60% to 1.8 gigawatts by 2030, delivering royalties of more than \u00a3100 million that year alone.<\/p>\n
UBS said the upgrade was driven by channel checks with Ceres’s manufacturing partners and the read-across from Bloom Energy’s landmark 2.8 gigawatt order from Oracle, which demonstrated the scale of demand for fuel cell technology in powering data centres.<\/p>\n
The broker now expects Delta Electronics, Ceres’s Taiwanese licensee, to reach 900 megawatts of capacity by 2030, up from a previous estimate of 515 megawatts, while Weichai Power of China is forecast to hit one gigawatt.<\/p>\n
UBS noted that if Delta were to secure an order of similar scale to Oracle’s deal with Bloom, it could add roughly 7% to group revenue across 2027 to 2029.<\/p>\n
The upgraded estimates lift group EBITDA forecasts by 31% in 2027 and 10% in 2028, with UBS now projecting positive free cash flow across 2026 to 2028.<\/p>\n
The bank described 2026 as an inflexion year for EBITDA breakeven, with operating costs set to fall 20% year on year following a restructuring that has reduced annual cash burn to approximately \u00a320 million.<\/p>\n
UBS said it has increasing confidence that Ceres will secure a new licensing partner in 2026, noting that the company’s pipeline of prospective partners has grown fivefold over the past year.<\/p>\n
The US remains a gap in the licensing network, though Delta and Doosan can access the American market from their existing bases.<\/p>\n
At its current share price, UBS calculates that the market is pricing in only around six gigawatts of cumulative SOFC shipments, which it called conservative against a total addressable market of 22 gigawatts per year by 2030 estimated by Ceres.<\/p>\n
The bank’s valuation puts Ceres at 10 times 2030 EV\/EBITDA, a 44% discount to closest peer Bloom Energy on 18 times.<\/p>\n
In its upside scenario of \u00a312 per share, UBS models two new licence partners joining by 2027, higher royalties and stronger growth in data centre orders.<\/p>\n
The downside case of 400p assumes no new partners, no royalty revenue in 2027 and a higher cost of capital.<\/p>\n
UBS also values Ceres’s green hydrogen electrolysis business at \u00a32.60 per share, representing additional upside it says is not currently reflected in the share price.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UBS nearly doubles Ceres Power target to 970p as data centre demand drives royalty surge Proactive uses images…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":70274,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[129],"tags":[29917,37572,1258,37574,37573,29920,223],"class_list":["post-70273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ubs","tag-bloom-energy","tag-ceres-power","tag-data-centre","tag-delta-electronics","tag-manufacturing-partners","tag-solid-oxide-fuel-cell","tag-ubs"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116617913797357085","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70273"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70273\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70274"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"UBS](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/cc0c44acd8f5769f9243e3bd8f3dfea9.jpeg\")
UBS nearly doubles Ceres Power target to 970p as data centre demand drives royalty surge Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock <\/p>\n