{"id":70644,"date":"2026-05-22T23:38:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T23:38:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/70644\/"},"modified":"2026-05-22T23:38:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T23:38:14","slug":"ubs-upgrades-alcoa-on-expectations-of-stronger-aluminium-prices-aluminium-extrusion-profiles-price-scrap-recycling-section-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/70644\/","title":{"rendered":"UBS upgrades Alcoa on expectations of stronger aluminium prices; Aluminium Extrusion, Profiles, Price, Scrap, Recycling, Section"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"aluminium\"<\/p>\n

Stock image for referential purposes only<\/p>\n

Alcoa received an upgraded stock rating from UBS, which raised its recommendation to \u201cBuy\u201d from \u201cNeutral\u201d and increased its price target to USD 80 from USD 75.<\/p>\n

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The upgrade comes after a strong rally in aluminium markets, with Alcoa shares rising around 139 per cent over the past year.<\/p>\n

UBS analyst Daniel Major said the brokerage expects prolonged smelter disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict to tighten global aluminium supply and support higher aluminium prices and regional premiums.<\/p>\n

According to UBS, Alcoa\u2019s current valuation still reflects an assumed London Metal Exchange aluminium price of around USD 3,000 per tonne, which remains roughly 20 per cent below current spot market levels.<\/p>\n

The brokerage expects the company to report sequentially stronger EBITDA and free cash flow in the second quarter, even while using relatively conservative aluminium price assumptions for the second half of 2026.<\/p>\n

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report –\u00a0Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply\u2013Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook<\/a><\/p>\n

UBS also said its 2027 EBITDA forecast for Alcoa is roughly 10 per cent above broader market consensus estimates.<\/p>\n

The firm expects sustained cash generation and possible asset divestments, including the potential sale of the Massena East facility, to reduce Alcoa\u2019s net debt below its target range of USD 1 billion to USD 1.5 billion.<\/p>\n

If debt levels continue to improve, UBS believes the company could eventually move toward share buybacks in the second half of 2026, which investors would likely view positively.<\/p>\n

Alcoa\u2019s first-quarter 2026 results, however, came in slightly below market expectations. The company posted earnings per share of USD 1.40, missing analyst estimates of USD 1.47. Revenue for the quarter stood at USD 3.19 billion, compared with forecasts of USD 3.3 billion.<\/p>\n

The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of USD 0.10 per share, scheduled to be paid in June 2026.<\/p>\n

Even with the softer quarterly numbers, market sentiment around aluminium producers has remained relatively strong as supply concerns and geopolitical tensions continue to support aluminium prices globally.<\/p>\n

Explore our e-magazine ALuminium LeaderSpeak 2026<\/a>\u00a0for the latest industry insights and trends.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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