While the weight-loss market has generally consumed pharmaceutical investors\u2019 attention over the past couple of years, other areas of drug development have not stood still. <\/p>\n
This was clear at the recent American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO) congress \u2013 the flagship meeting for companies with an oncology interest \u2013 as the focus was on the growing competition between two of the global industry\u2019s biggest players, AstraZeneca (AZN) and Roche (CH:RO). <\/p>\n
They are fighting for dominance in the next generation of breast cancer treatments, specifically hormone receptor-positive HER2-negative breast cancer. This is, unfortunately, a significant market, accounting for roughly seven in 10 breast cancer diagnoses. HER2 is a protein that is present in some cancer cells and can stimulate faster growth. <\/p>\n
The current market was essentially built by Roche with the launch of its groundbreaking Herceptin in 1998. This drug achieved peak sales of $7bn (\u00a35.25bn) in 2018 before dropping to around $340mn in 2025 after generic competitors arrived in the US in 2019. <\/p>\n
Pressure from AstraZeneca\u2019s Enhertu also knocked sales from that year. The drug brought in revenue of $5bn in 2025, after an annual growth rate since launch of 30 per cent.<\/p>\n
However, future success for both companies now depends on how quickly they can gain approval for the next generation of breast cancer medicines.<\/p>\n
Read more from Investors\u2019 Chronicle<\/p>\n
New treatments on the horizon<\/p>\n
HER2-negative breast cancer is currently treated with a combination of two drug types. The first is an aromatase inhibitor, which reduces the body\u2019s oestrogen production, starving the tumour of its primary fuel. The second is a CDK4\/6 inhibitor, a newer drug that directly blocks the mechanism cancer cells use to replicate. <\/p>\n
There are currently three CDK4\/6 inhibitors on the market: Pfizer\u2019s (US:PFE) Ibrance, Novartis\u2019s (CH:NOVN) Kisqali, and Verzenio, owned by Eli Lilly (US:LLY) but most often used alongside AstraZeneca\u2019s Faslodex. The combined sales for these drugs were almost $15bn last year. <\/p>\n
Both Astra and Roche hope to target this market by developing the next generation of oral pills, known as selective oestrogen receptor degraders (SERDs). These destroy the oestrogen receptor that feeds tumour growth more completely and for longer.<\/p>\n
Astra\u2019s candidate is camizestrant. The development seems to have proceeded smoothly so far, with the risk of disease progression cut by 56 per cent, according to data presented at ASCO.<\/p>\n
The company\u2019s main problem is that the drug\u2019s approval by regulators in the US has been delayed after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)\u2019s oncology committee failed to reach a majority opinion on whether results justified switching from the current standard of care. The FDA is currently assessing additional data supplied by the company.<\/p>\n
Analysts noted the company\u2019s prowess in oncology, but Deutsche analyst Emmanuel Papadakis introduced a note of caution: \u201c[ASCO\u2019s 2026 congress was] the first conference since 2018 where AstraZeneca has not featured in the plenary session,\u201d he said, adding that investors would be pondering the \u201capprovability\u201d of the company\u2019s SERD drug and the strategy around the next generation of tumour treatments. <\/p>\n
The plenary session is the most prestigious slot at ASCO, in which research results likely to change treatment approaches are presented. <\/p>\n
Astra still has plenty to show the market this year, however, with results from 11 late-stage trials set to be released. <\/p>\n
However, whether the medical profession thinks the company\u2019s pipeline will mature into something incrementally interesting rather than world-beating is a point worth considering. Nevertheless, many pharmaceutical executives would dearly love to have Astra\u2019s set of problems.<\/p>\n
Roche\u2019s issues are fundamentally different as it is playing catch-up with its product giredestrant, with which it is seeking to gain traction in a segment it had previously conceded to its competitors. This must be galling as it has pioneered some of the most effective breast cancer treatments on the market, but stood by as competitors dominated the second generation of treatments. The company is determined to get in on the act.<\/p>\n
In contrast to AstraZeneca, giredestrant\u2019s development has not gone as smoothly, with the best data from its three phase 3 trials showing good efficacy when giredestrant is used post-surgery to stop a cancer reoccurring. However, it is the use in first-line treatment that is the bigger commercial prize. The company is still forecasting peak sales north of CHF3bn (\u00a32.82bn) based on the so-called adjuvant market alone, but investors will need a certain amount of faith to buy into that assumption.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Overall, if either company can get a product approved and commercially rolled out over the next two years, a significant slice of a $13bn potential market is up for grabs. This would kick off a new decade of oncology profits as legacy products lose patent protection.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"While the weight-loss market has generally consumed pharmaceutical investors\u2019 attention over the past couple of years, other areas…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81293,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[124],"tags":[2974,1202,134,2114,2113],"class_list":["post-81292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-roche","tag-global","tag-news","tag-roche","tag-standard-article","tag-stocks-shares"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ch\/116730239654548488","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81292"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81292\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}