For\u00a0the\u00a0Gulf,\u00a0the\u00a0news\u00a0from\u00a0Geneva\u00a0arrives\u00a0less\u00a0as\u00a0triumph\u00a0than\u00a0as\u00a0exhalation.\u00a0After\u00a0months\u00a0in\u00a0which\u00a0the\u00a0Strait\u00a0of\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0\u2014\u00a0the\u00a0artery\u00a0through\u00a0which\u00a0much\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0world\u2019s\u00a0energy,\u00a0and\u00a0nearly\u00a0all\u00a0of\u00a0Qatar\u2019s,\u00a0must\u00a0pass\u00a0\u2014\u00a0was\u00a0held\u00a0hostage\u00a0to\u00a0a\u00a0widening\u00a0war,\u00a0the\u00a0framework\u00a0agreement\u00a0between\u00a0Washington\u00a0and\u00a0Tehran\u00a0offers\u00a0the\u00a0first\u00a0credible\u00a0prospect\u00a0of\u00a0relief.\u00a0Oil\u00a0prices\u00a0have\u00a0softened,\u00a0the\u00a0guns\u00a0in\u00a0southern\u00a0Lebanon\u00a0have\u00a0somewhat\u00a0quietened,\u00a0and\u00a0Iranians\u00a0long\u00a0braced\u00a0for\u00a0catastrophe\u00a0permit\u00a0themselves\u00a0a\u00a0guarded\u00a0hope.\u00a0That\u00a0alone\u00a0is\u00a0worth\u00a0marking.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Yet\u00a0sobriety\u00a0is\u00a0the\u00a0more\u00a0useful\u00a0response.\u00a0The\u00a0conflict\u00a0that\u00a0began\u00a0on\u00a0February\u00a028\u00a0was\u00a0launched\u00a0with\u00a0sweeping\u00a0ambitions\u00a0in\u00a0Washington:\u00a0to\u00a0dismantle\u00a0Iran\u2019s\u00a0military,\u00a0end\u00a0its\u00a0nuclear\u00a0programme,\u00a0unseat\u00a0the\u00a0regime\u00a0and\u00a0\u201cliberate\u00a0its\u00a0people\u201d.\u00a0None\u00a0of\u00a0these\u00a0have\u00a0been\u00a0achieved.\u00a0What\u00a0has\u00a0emerged\u00a0instead\u00a0is\u00a0a\u00a0document\u00a0neither\u00a0side\u00a0has\u00a0published,\u00a0signed\u00a0in\u00a0part\u00a0electronically,\u00a0and\u00a0already\u00a0subject\u00a0to\u00a0competing\u00a0interpretations.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
President\u00a0Donald\u00a0Trump\u00a0has\u00a0promised\u00a0the\u00a0strait\u00a0will\u00a0be\u00a0\u201cpermanently\u00a0toll-free\u201d;\u00a0Tehran\u2019s\u00a0foreign\u00a0ministry\u00a0counters\u00a0that\u00a0fees\u00a0may\u00a0be\u00a0levied\u00a0\u201cin\u00a0exchange\u00a0for\u00a0the\u00a0services\u00a0that\u00a0are\u00a0provided.\u201d\u00a0When\u00a0the\u00a0central\u00a0practical\u00a0achievement\u00a0is\u00a0described\u00a0in\u00a0two\u00a0incompatible\u00a0ways\u00a0before\u00a0the\u00a0ink\u00a0is\u00a0dry,\u00a0prudence\u00a0is\u00a0warranted.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0hard\u00a0questions\u00a0have\u00a0not\u00a0been\u00a0answered\u00a0so\u00a0much\u00a0as\u00a0deferred.\u00a0A\u00a060-day\u00a0window\u00a0now\u00a0opens\u00a0for\u00a0a\u00a0fuller\u00a0settlement,\u00a0and\u00a0within\u00a0it\u00a0lie\u00a0the\u00a0very\u00a0disputes\u00a0that\u00a0fuelled\u00a0the\u00a0war:\u00a0the\u00a0lifting\u00a0of\u00a0American\u00a0sanctions\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0limiting\u00a0of\u00a0Iran\u2019s\u00a0nuclear\u00a0capacity.\u00a0Iran\u2019s\u00a0foreign\u00a0minister,\u00a0Abbas\u00a0Araghchi,\u00a0has\u00a0named\u00a0the\u00a0obstacle\u00a0plainly\u00a0\u2014\u00a0these\u00a0talks\u00a0will\u00a0labour\u00a0beneath\u00a0\u201ca\u00a0history\u00a0of\u00a0broken\u00a0promises.\u201d\u00a0Vice-President\u00a0JD\u00a0Vance,\u00a0who\u00a0is\u00a0to\u00a0lead\u00a0the\u00a0next\u00a0phase,\u00a0concedes\u00a0there\u00a0are\u00a0\u201cvery\u00a0important\u00a0details\u00a0to\u00a0figure\u00a0out,\u201d\u00a0not\u00a0least\u00a0the\u00a0fate\u00a0of\u00a0Iran\u2019s\u00a0enriched\u00a0uranium.\u00a0Some\u00a0$24bn\u00a0of\u00a0Iranian\u00a0assets\u00a0remain\u00a0frozen\u00a0abroad,\u00a0to\u00a0be\u00a0released\u00a0only\u00a0as\u00a0undefined\u00a0milestones\u00a0are\u00a0met.\u00a0Frameworks\u00a0are\u00a0easy;\u00a0it\u00a0is\u00a0the\u00a0details\u00a0that\u00a0have\u00a0undone\u00a0every\u00a0previous\u00a0attempt.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
For\u00a0Gulf\u00a0states,\u00a0the\u00a0lesson\u00a0is\u00a0one\u00a0of\u00a0exposure.\u00a0The\u00a0region\u00a0did\u00a0not\u00a0start\u00a0this\u00a0war,\u00a0yet\u00a0its\u00a0shipping\u00a0lanes,\u00a0its\u00a0energy\u00a0exports\u00a0and\u00a0its\u00a0airspace\u00a0bore\u00a0the\u00a0consequences.\u00a0A\u00a0peace\u00a0that\u00a0reopens\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0only\u00a0haltingly\u00a0\u2014\u00a0American\u00a0officials\u00a0cannot\u00a0agree\u00a0whether\u00a0normal\u00a0traffic\u00a0resumes\u00a0in\u00a0days\u00a0or\u00a0weeks,\u00a0and\u00a0mines\u00a0still\u00a0litter\u00a0the\u00a0water\u00a0\u2014\u00a0is\u00a0a\u00a0reminder\u00a0of\u00a0how\u00a0swiftly\u00a0the\u00a0Gulf\u2019s\u00a0prosperity\u00a0can\u00a0be\u00a0hostage\u00a0to\u00a0decisions\u00a0taken\u00a0elsewhere.\u00a0Resilience,\u00a0not\u00a0relief,\u00a0must\u00a0be\u00a0the\u00a0watchword.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Lebanon\u00a0is\u00a0the\u00a0clearest\u00a0warning\u00a0sign.\u00a0Iran\u00a0and\u00a0Pakistan,\u00a0the\u00a0patient\u00a0mediator\u00a0whose\u00a0diplomacy\u00a0deserves\u00a0recognition,\u00a0insist\u00a0the\u00a0agreement\u00a0halts\u00a0operations\u00a0on\u00a0every\u00a0front.\u00a0Israel,\u00a0not\u00a0party\u00a0to\u00a0the\u00a0talks,\u00a0says\u00a0otherwise:\u00a0its\u00a0leaders\u00a0have\u00a0refused\u00a0to\u00a0withdraw\u00a0from\u00a0the\u00a0south.\u00a0A\u00a0ceasefire\u00a0that\u00a0one\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0principal\u00a0combatants\u00a0does\u00a0not\u00a0consider\u00a0itself\u00a0bound\u00a0by\u00a0is\u00a0no\u00a0ceasefire\u00a0at\u00a0all,\u00a0and\u00a0Lebanon\u00a0has\u00a0too\u00a0often\u00a0been\u00a0the\u00a0place\u00a0where\u00a0larger\u00a0bargains\u00a0quietly\u00a0collapse.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
None\u00a0of\u00a0this\u00a0is\u00a0cause\u00a0for\u00a0cynicism.\u00a0The\u00a0alternative\u00a0to\u00a0an\u00a0imperfect\u00a0framework\u00a0is\u00a0a\u00a0continuing\u00a0war,\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0human\u00a0cost\u00a0of\u00a0that\u00a0arithmetic\u00a0is\u00a0not\u00a0in\u00a0doubt.\u00a0A\u00a0flawed\u00a0beginning\u00a0is\u00a0still\u00a0a\u00a0beginning.\u00a0But\u00a0the\u00a0Gulf\u00a0has\u00a0learned,\u00a0through\u00a0long\u00a0experience,\u00a0to\u00a0distinguish\u00a0a\u00a0ceremony\u00a0from\u00a0a\u00a0settlement.\u00a0The\u00a0handshakes\u00a0in\u00a0Geneva\u00a0on\u00a0Friday\u00a0will\u00a0photograph\u00a0well.\u00a0Whether\u00a0they\u00a0hold\u00a0will\u00a0be\u00a0determined\u00a0not\u00a0by\u00a0the\u00a0choreography\u00a0of\u00a0signing\u00a0but\u00a0by\u00a0the\u00a0willingness\u00a0of\u00a0all\u00a0parties\u00a0\u2014\u00a0including\u00a0those\u00a0absent\u00a0from\u00a0the\u00a0table\u00a0\u2014\u00a0to\u00a0honour\u00a0what\u00a0they\u00a0have,\u00a0for\u00a0now,\u00a0only\u00a0agreed\u00a0to\u00a0discuss.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For\u00a0the\u00a0Gulf,\u00a0the\u00a0news\u00a0from\u00a0Geneva\u00a0arrives\u00a0less\u00a0as\u00a0triumph\u00a0than\u00a0as\u00a0exhalation.\u00a0After\u00a0months\u00a0in\u00a0which\u00a0the\u00a0Strait\u00a0of\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0\u2014\u00a0the\u00a0artery\u00a0through\u00a0which\u00a0much\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0world\u2019s\u00a0energy,\u00a0and\u00a0nearly\u00a0all\u00a0of\u00a0Qatar\u2019s,\u00a0must\u00a0pass\u00a0\u2014\u00a0was\u00a0held\u00a0hostage\u00a0to\u00a0a\u00a0widening\u00a0war,\u00a0the\u00a0framework\u00a0agreement\u00a0between\u00a0Washington\u00a0and\u00a0Tehran\u00a0offers\u00a0the\u00a0first\u00a0credible\u00a0prospect\u00a0of\u00a0relief.\u00a0Oil\u00a0prices\u00a0have\u00a0softened,\u00a0the\u00a0guns\u00a0in\u00a0southern\u00a0Lebanon\u00a0have\u00a0somewhat\u00a0quietened,\u00a0and\u00a0Iranians\u00a0long\u00a0braced\u00a0for\u00a0catastrophe\u00a0permit\u00a0themselves\u00a0a\u00a0guarded\u00a0hope.\u00a0That\u00a0alone\u00a0is\u00a0worth\u00a0marking. \u00a0 Yet\u00a0sobriety\u00a0is\u00a0the\u00a0more\u00a0useful\u00a0response.\u00a0The\u00a0conflict\u00a0that\u00a0began\u00a0on\u00a0February\u00a028\u00a0was\u00a0launched\u00a0with\u00a0sweeping\u00a0ambitions\u00a0in\u00a0Washington:\u00a0to\u00a0dismantle\u00a0Iran\u2019s\u00a0military,\u00a0end\u00a0its\u00a0nuclear\u00a0programme,\u00a0unseat\u00a0the\u00a0regime\u00a0and\u00a0\u201cliberate\u00a0its\u00a0people\u201d.\u00a0None\u00a0of\u00a0these\u00a0have\u00a0been\u00a0achieved.\u00a0What\u00a0has\u00a0emerged\u00a0instead\u00a0is\u00a0a\u00a0document\u00a0neither\u00a0side\u00a0has\u00a0published,\u00a0signed\u00a0in\u00a0part\u00a0electronically,\u00a0and\u00a0already\u00a0subject\u00a0to\u00a0competing\u00a0interpretations. \u00a0 President\u00a0Donald\u00a0Trump\u00a0has\u00a0promised\u00a0the\u00a0strait\u00a0will\u00a0be\u00a0\u201cpermanently\u00a0toll-free\u201d;\u00a0Tehran\u2019s\u00a0foreign\u00a0ministry\u00a0counters\u00a0that\u00a0fees\u00a0may\u00a0be\u00a0levied\u00a0\u201cin\u00a0exchange\u00a0for\u00a0the\u00a0services\u00a0that\u00a0are\u00a0provided.\u201d\u00a0When\u00a0the\u00a0central\u00a0practical\u00a0achievement\u00a0is\u00a0described\u00a0in\u00a0two\u00a0incompatible\u00a0ways\u00a0before\u00a0the\u00a0ink\u00a0is\u00a0dry,\u00a0prudence\u00a0is\u00a0warranted. \u00a0 The\u00a0hard\u00a0questions\u00a0have\u00a0not\u00a0been\u00a0answered\u00a0so\u00a0much\u00a0as\u00a0deferred.\u00a0A\u00a060-day\u00a0window\u00a0now\u00a0opens\u00a0for\u00a0a\u00a0fuller\u00a0settlement,\u00a0and\u00a0within\u00a0it\u00a0lie\u00a0the\u00a0very\u00a0disputes\u00a0that\u00a0fuelled\u00a0the\u00a0war:\u00a0the\u00a0lifting\u00a0of\u00a0American\u00a0sanctions\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0limiting\u00a0of\u00a0Iran\u2019s\u00a0nuclear\u00a0capacity.\u00a0Iran\u2019s\u00a0foreign\u00a0minister,\u00a0Abbas\u00a0Araghchi,\u00a0has\u00a0named\u00a0the\u00a0obstacle\u00a0plainly\u00a0\u2014\u00a0these\u00a0talks\u00a0will\u00a0labour\u00a0beneath\u00a0\u201ca\u00a0history\u00a0of\u00a0broken\u00a0promises.\u201d\u00a0Vice-President\u00a0JD\u00a0Vance,\u00a0who\u00a0is\u00a0to\u00a0lead\u00a0the\u00a0next\u00a0phase,\u00a0concedes\u00a0there\u00a0are\u00a0\u201cvery\u00a0important\u00a0details\u00a0to\u00a0figure\u00a0out,\u201d\u00a0not\u00a0least\u00a0the\u00a0fate\u00a0of\u00a0Iran\u2019s\u00a0enriched\u00a0uranium.\u00a0Some\u00a0$24bn\u00a0of\u00a0Iranian\u00a0assets\u00a0remain\u00a0frozen\u00a0abroad,\u00a0to\u00a0be\u00a0released\u00a0only\u00a0as\u00a0undefined\u00a0milestones\u00a0are\u00a0met.\u00a0Frameworks\u00a0are\u00a0easy;\u00a0it\u00a0is\u00a0the\u00a0details\u00a0that\u00a0have\u00a0undone\u00a0every\u00a0previous\u00a0attempt. \u00a0 For\u00a0Gulf\u00a0states,\u00a0the\u00a0lesson\u00a0is\u00a0one\u00a0of\u00a0exposure.\u00a0The\u00a0region\u00a0did\u00a0not\u00a0start\u00a0this\u00a0war,\u00a0yet\u00a0its\u00a0shipping\u00a0lanes,\u00a0its\u00a0energy\u00a0exports\u00a0and\u00a0its\u00a0airspace\u00a0bore\u00a0the\u00a0consequences.\u00a0A\u00a0peace\u00a0that\u00a0reopens\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0only\u00a0haltingly\u00a0\u2014\u00a0American\u00a0officials\u00a0cannot\u00a0agree\u00a0whether\u00a0normal\u00a0traffic\u00a0resumes\u00a0in\u00a0days\u00a0or\u00a0weeks,\u00a0and\u00a0mines\u00a0still\u00a0litter\u00a0the\u00a0water\u00a0\u2014\u00a0is\u00a0a\u00a0reminder\u00a0of\u00a0how\u00a0swiftly\u00a0the\u00a0Gulf\u2019s\u00a0prosperity\u00a0can\u00a0be\u00a0hostage\u00a0to\u00a0decisions\u00a0taken\u00a0elsewhere.\u00a0Resilience,\u00a0not\u00a0relief,\u00a0must\u00a0be\u00a0the\u00a0watchword. \u00a0 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