The Black Sea is emerging as a major conflict zone in the Russia-Ukraine war, with more than 300 ships reportedly targeted by both sides over the past month and a half. The vessels include grain carriers, oil tankers and other cargo ships.
The escalating attacks are disrupting maritime trade and raising concerns over global food supplies. Wheat and corn prices have also come under pressure as shipping through the region becomes increasingly difficult.
Russia and Ukraine together account for around 30% of global wheat exports, with much of their grain traditionally transported through Black Sea ports. However, repeated attacks on ships and ports have prompted shipowners to avoid the route, pushing freight costs higher.
Ukraine, Russia face export disruptions
Ukraine exported only a limited share of its grain capacity last month as disruptions continued to affect Black Sea shipping. Russia has also recorded a sharp decline in grain exports compared with last year.
Although grain stocks remain available in warehouses in both countries, transporting the produce to international buyers has become increasingly difficult.
The disruption is being reflected in global markets, with wheat prices reportedly rising by around 30% over the past year.
Road, rail routes offer limited relief
With maritime routes under pressure, Ukraine has increased efforts to move grain through road and rail networks. However, these routes cannot match the capacity of Black Sea ports.
Some grain is also being transported through the Danube River, but water levels and limited transport capacity make it an inadequate alternative for handling the full volume of exports.
Grain trade disrupted in the Black Sea amid escalating attacks on ships and ports
Corn supply also at risk
The Black Sea crisis could affect global corn supplies as well. Ukraine exported around 23 million tonnes of corn in 2025-26, accounting for approximately 12% of global corn exports.
A prolonged disruption could therefore put additional pressure on international corn supplies and prices.
Russia’s grain exports fall 71%
Russia has also suffered a major decline in grain exports amid the intensifying attacks. In August, its total grain exports fell from 5.9 million tonnes last year to 1.7 million tonnes, a decline of about 71%.
Russian wheat exports dropped from 5 million tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes. The number of countries purchasing Russian wheat fell from 43 to 16, while the number of ports handling grain shipments declined from 47 to 10.
Shipments from Russia’s largest grain port, Novorossiysk, also fell from 2.49 million tonnes to 1.04 million tonnes.
Black Sea tensions threaten global corn supplies
Why the Black Sea matters
The Black Sea is a crucial route for global agricultural trade. A large share of wheat, corn and sunflower oil exported from Russia and Ukraine passes through the region.
The two countries’ combined share of global wheat exports means that prolonged disruption in the Black Sea can have a direct impact on international food markets.
Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments contributed to a sharp increase in global food prices. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, later enabled millions of tonnes of grain to reach global markets.
The latest attacks on ships and ports have renewed concerns over food security. Experts warn that if the disruption continues for an extended period, global prices of wheat, corn and edible oils could rise further.
Black Sea attacks raise fresh concerns over global food prices
The disruption of grain exports through the Black Sea could once again put pressure on global food prices, as attacks on ships and ports in the region intensify.
When the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, disruptions to Black Sea grain exports triggered a sharp rise in food prices worldwide. The situation later eased after the Black Sea Grain Deal, brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye, allowed millions of tonnes of grain to reach international markets.
Renewed attacks on maritime infrastructure have now raised concerns over global food supplies. If the Black Sea route remains disrupted for a prolonged period, prices of wheat, corn and edible oils could rise further.
The impact is expected to be greater on countries that rely heavily on grain imports from Russia and Ukraine, which are among the world’s major agricultural exporters.