That is the take of prominent Russian political analyst, publicist, living in emigration, Alexander Morozov.
In the conversation with “Arch Frontline” Mr. Morozov also explained, why the recent plans of US administration to make new deals with Russia above the heads of Ukrainians are doomed to fail.
– There was and still exists such dominating narrative in the Ukrainian and Western part of the world – Russian regime and its master Vladimir Putin will immediately launch general mobilization after the end so called “elections”, which were meant to be “referendum” on war.
This “referendum”, of course, was the big success, society demonstrated full obedience, but the issue of mobilization still is somewhere around the corner, or even went deeper behind the curtains. What is your impression and take on this?
– Well, I think, that the issue of mobilization is still here and isn’t going to disappear into the blue. That’s for sure.
Anyway, in my opinion, it essentially depends on the dynamics of war. To be more specific – on the situation on the ground, on the frontlines and what Kremlin is planning to do there in order to enforce the assault. How big will be or already is this need?
When we are looking at what Russia is doing with the air strikes and terror and with the big cities, we can clearly understand the plan and the calculations, right? They want to make those cities as unlivable, as possible during the wintertime.
But the plans at the frontlines are less clear.
Just couple of months ago, around the beginning of August it was clear, that Putin confirmed some new plan of offensive at autumn and winter. Nevertheless, we still can’t see this plan being implemented – at least at full scale.
The most possible reason is clear – Ukrainian defences are still standing firm, Russian advance on those parts of the frontline, where it is happening, is still painfully slow and Ukrainian army even conducted some successful tactical counteroffensives, which even more crippled Moscow’s planning and calculations.
So, we see, that Kremlin again is increasing military budget and size of armed forces, looking at year 2027. This increase is not breathtakingly huge, but still quite visible.
I’m still sticking to my theory, that Kremlin still does not plan and does not want real general and massive mobilization in the strict sense of this word.
So, I think, that the main idea and political order to the federal government and governors – some kind of crypto mobilization, forcing or convincing people to sign the contract with the army.
That is why Putin himself consistently repeats, that he’s supporter of contract system.
But the basis of that system and the ways to push people into signing to war will have to be expanded and developed further. There will be more high schools and universities, having to provide bigger numbers of students for signing the contract, more women going to the army.
So, the real general mobilization, in my opinion, will be launched by the Kremlin only then, when it decides, that the potential of the contract system is finally exhausted.
– I’ve just returned from Ukraine, where I had visited the 3rd Corps of Ukrainian Armed Forces, defending some of the most critical parts of the frontline and conducting the now famous ’’Vivaldi’’ counteroffensive operation. They are saying, that the enemy is already suffering from the shortage of manpower – some units are only at 30 percent full.
So, the need for Russia to throw the big amounts of people into the frontlines at one or several leaps is kind of already here. Then what is the main reason of this reluctance? The fear of the regime to appear as having failed, as weak, as unable to sort the things out and fix them?
– Exactly. Also, here is a big risk. What if there’s the failure even of the big general mobilization? What if even such move is not enough for the decisive defeat of the Ukrainian army? Then what? What options are left?
And the Kremlin with the General staff of Russian army understand that.
Now Putin still has, so to say, propagandist reserve – he constantly repeats, that in case of the “rising of all of the nation” the enemy would be quickly defeated. And in case of failure of general mobilization to achieve this there would be the huge elephant in the room, questioning: “ok, whole nation stood up, now what?”.
At the end of the day, there are some reserves in Ural or Far East, which can be thrown immediately to the frontlines if the need is really dire.
So, that’s why, in my opinion, we will have the more or less the same situation with this. For the meantime, of course.
– We have ever growing apocalyptic atmosphere in the big cities of Ukraine, first of all in Kyiv, also inside the country in general. Economy, politics, societal morale – everything seems crumbling under the relentless and ever growing Russian air terror. How do you see this, what’s your forecast?
– Yes, I understand this atmosphere and feel it too. But, trying to analyze and predict the state of the things, I think, that neither the frontlines, nor the country behind them will collapse during the winter.
My feeling is, that the country is more ready for what’s coming because of the last winter.
On the other hand, the cruelty of the bloodshed, which will only increase and expand in the coming months will backfire for Kremlin – Europe will start moving forward more decisively in helping Ukraine to withstand this. And exactly because of it.
Of course, the society will suffer much more, than during the last winter. But I don’t see such political collapse or crisis coming, which Russia is counting on.
Ok, what will happen even if president Volodymyr Zelensky is resigning or being somehow removed? He will be replaced by some other political or military person – by the head of the parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk, for example.
Will the core of the policy of resistance of the Ukrainian state change because of that? No.
Russia hopes, that this total destruction will finally destroy the system of recruiting to the armed forces. But I think, that the core, the spine and the fundamental ground of Ukraine’s military will remain strong and capable of fighting.
And last but not least. I have doubts if Russia will be able to maintain in the strategic perspective such scale and intensity of the strikes, even if we’re are seeing that it is scaling them up.
Anyway, it is beyond doubt, that the next several months will be extremely hard and cruel for the people of Ukraine.
– So, you think, that Russia will end up after the winter without the decisive breakthroughs and “victories”. But the regime always chooses the one and only way in such situation – the escalation. What it would be? Will it jump over the threshold of the article 5 of NATO?
– Well, I think, that the main regions and places of this Russian escalation will be Baltic and North seas.
Of course, such countries, as Poland, Romania, Czech republic also lie in danger zone. Kremlin even in public already say, that it will “punish” those countries, which are aiding Ukraine, will “destroy” the infrastructure of military aid.
But the seas I’ve mentioned – especially Baltic sea – are superimportant for Russia and we again can see this from their almost hysterical redactions to made up “attempted isolation” of Kaliningrad region.
Of course, there’s enough ground to discuss about the same escalation also in the Mediterranean sea, where the ships of so called Russian shadow fleet can launch drones all over.
But the countries of the Baltic sea region, Scandinavia should be the first ones preparing for escalation from Russian side in 2027.
Still, I stick to my opinion, that Russia isn’t ready to cross the line of open military attack and confrontation, it still think, that the potential of “hybrid” warfare isn’t exhausted and it is better to intimidate and blackmail European societies, instead of openly attacking them.
– And last but not least – how do you see the news about “proposal”, that US president Donald Trump got from his special envoy for Belarus John Coale? That is – to swipe Ukraine off the table and start moving the “Belarussian way” – withdrawing sanctions and starting big business in exchange for release of political prisoners.
Some people I talk to in US say, that Trump and his team is really into this and want to move that way, so everything depends on Russians. What’s your opinion?
– I don’t think that it will bring any results or become the reality. Exchange of spies or hostages will continue more or less that way and on that scale as it is happening now.
But the main representatives of the Russian regime has already written off the very possibility of this happening – and not only because of the fact, that they cannot admit, that they have political prisoners.
And not only because of the fact, that it may be too complicated from the US side. President there cannot manipulate and play with sanctions and their policy without the Congress and this situation will be even more tough after midterms.
The main reason – Putin himself and the regime around him cannot be degraded to such status, as the regime in their province Belarus. The very principle, mechanism of the deal – they are given “prizes”, “rewards” for the concessions, even such small, from their side. It is humiliating, it is degrading their proagandist image of the “great power”, absolutely equal to the US and China.
So, I think, Coale will have to find some other “proposal”, if they really want to move forward with Russians above the heads of Ukrainians.
But the main thing remains the same – many of those heads are in military helmets. Ukraine is still holding the ground and the frontlin. That is the reality, which is still ruining all the “proposals” and “deals”.
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