Abu Dhabi, UAE – Iran has thrust the Strait of Hormuz back into the spotlight by proposing a plan aimed at restoring normal navigation within seven days. This proposal is part of a broader vision to end hostilities, lift the blockade on Iranian ports, ease oil-related restrictions, and resume nuclear talks. The initiative emerged while the US stance remained a focus of attention, following a Reuters report citing *The Wall Street Journal* that US President Donald Trump had rejected the Iranian plan. Meanwhile, according to the report, Tehran was awaiting an official US response.

Iran’s plan to open the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days

The Iranian plan links the resumption of navigation in the maritime corridor to a set of political, military, and economic measures. Consequently, restoring passage is part of a broader crisis settlement rather than an isolated decision concerning vessels alone. The seven-day timeframe is significant given the corridor’s vital role in global energy flows. However, this political timeline does not necessarily mean that tankers, shipping companies, and insurers will immediately return to previous operational levels.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz important to the global oil market?

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that the Strait of Hormuz is a key transit point for global energy supplies; oil flows through the strait ranged between 20.9 and 21.6 million barrels per day in 2025. However, average flows dropped to 14.9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and subsequently to 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter—a direct result of disruptions affecting shipping and energy flows.

Decline in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz during the crisis

Shipping tracking data reported by Reuters showed a significant decline in commercial vessel traffic compared to levels seen before the conflict escalated on February 28, when the strait saw an average of about 125 large commercial vessels daily. Over the weekend of September 21, only 17 commodity vessels passed through, down from 37 the previous week, while preliminary data from September 22 showed just two commodity-carrying vessels passing through in a single day. Additionally, Reuters noted that some vessels might not appear in tracking data if their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) are turned off.

Maritime security authorities determine the date for the return of ships to the Strait of Hormuz.

The future of shipping traffic does not hinge solely on a political announcement regarding the opening of the corridor; the security situation is a key factor in shipping companies’ decisions to resume voyages through the region. The International Maritime Organization stated that it has verified 80 attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas since February 28, resulting in the deaths of at least 22 seafarers. This underscores the magnitude of the risks facing the resumption of maritime activity.

How does marine insurance affect the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz?

Marine insurance represents a crucial factor in the return of tankers and commercial vessels, as shipping companies and shipowners need to assess risks and costs before resuming regular voyages. Consequently, a reduction in security risks impacts not only the feasibility of vessel passage but also voyage costs and insurance coverage terms—factors that determine how quickly shipping companies return to the traditional route.

The UAE and the Gulf Face the Repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The repercussions of shipping disruptions extend beyond the strait, affecting Gulf ports, storage and maritime service hubs, and energy transport networks, as some companies turn to alternative arrangements to cope with reduced transit volumes. Vessel-tracking data reported by Reuters indicates that oil transfers are continuing via unconventional maritime methods; these include the transfer of approximately two million barrels of Iraqi Basra crude off the coast of Fujairah from one large tanker to another bound for China.

Can alternative routes compensate for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

Shipping disruptions have prompted energy and shipping companies to seek alternative routes and operations; however, these options do not fully replace the massive volume of energy that typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, data from the Energy Information Administration indicates that markets have begun to adapt to reduced flows through shifts in trade patterns and inventory levels. This implies that the resumption of shipping will occur within a global market that has already reconfigured some of its routes during the crisis.

The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab: How Has the Shipping Map Changed?

The Strait of Hormuz crisis unfolds within a broader maritime landscape marked by disruptions across several vital corridors—including the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait—thereby presenting new challenges for shipping companies connecting Asia and Europe. Consequently, the assessment of maritime voyages now relies on a comprehensive analysis of risks and alternative routes, rather than treating the Strait of Hormuz as an isolated point. This dynamic influences voyage duration, costs, and route selection.

What happens to oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz opens?

The resumption of shipping would alleviate one source of pressure on the energy market; however, the restoration of tanker traffic does not necessarily mean an immediate return of oil prices or flow volumes to pre-crisis levels. Data from the Energy Information Administration indicates that the global market has already managed the supply disruption through shifts in trade flows and inventory levels. Consequently, any resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will occur within a market that has already undergone adjustments during the crisis.

What does the seven-day plan mean for the future of the Strait of Hormuz?

The Iranian plan proposes a seven-day timeframe for reactivating the maritime corridor as part of a broader political settlement; however, its practical success hinges on various factors, including maritime security, the confidence of shipping and insurance companies, and the stability of energy flows. Consequently, the most significant indicator of a return to activity will not be the political announcement alone, but rather the gradual increase in ship and tanker traffic, the resumption of maritime and insurance services, and the stabilization of energy flows through the corridor.

From a political decision to the actual resumption of navigation.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis highlights the disparity between political decisions and the operational resumption of maritime trade; while the political landscape can shift within hours, restoring the confidence of transport, energy, and insurance companies requires stable conditions on the ground. Amid ongoing scrutiny of the US response to the Iranian proposal, the true test lies in actual vessel movements: when will tankers resume regular passage, when will shipping companies regain confidence in the route, and when will the Strait once again become a stable corridor for global energy trade?