V\u016fdce opozice, odsouzen\u00fd za pokus o prorusk\u00fd p\u0159evrat k dom\u00e1c\u00edmu v\u011bzen\u00ed, obvi\u0148uje premi\u00e9ra, \u017ee do zem\u011b propa\u0161oval tuny halucinogenn\u00edch hub pro vlastn\u00ed pot\u0159ebu. I to je sou\u010d\u00e1st p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed kampan\u011b v\u00a0Arm\u00e9nii, kter\u00e1 v\u0161ak pod bizarn\u00edm povrchem skr\u00fdv\u00e1 tvrd\u00e9 politick\u00e9 drama o osud cel\u00e9ho Ji\u017en\u00edho Kavkazu. Tradi\u010dn\u00ed hegemon \u2013 Rusko \u2013 zde toti\u017e viditeln\u011b ztr\u00e1c\u00ed vliv ve prosp\u011bch Evropy, USA i Turecka. A je ochotno pou\u017e\u00edt v\u0161echny p\u00e1ky, aby si pozice udr\u017eelo.<\/p>\n
Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm momentem budou parlamentn\u00ed volby vypsan\u00e9 na 7. \u010dervna. Proevropsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Nikol Pa\u0161injan v nich Arm\u00e9n\u016fm nab\u00edz\u00ed ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed program<\/a>, jak prom\u011bnit dosud problematickou geografickou polohu zem\u011b v jej\u00ed p\u0159ednost: Jerevan, aspiruj\u00edc\u00ed na vstup do Evropsk\u00e9 unie, se m\u00e1 st\u00e1t strategickou dopravn\u00ed spojkou, kter\u00e1 propoj\u00ed Evropu se St\u0159edn\u00ed Asi\u00ed, Indi\u00ed a \u010c\u00ednou. Pl\u00e1n m\u00e1 ale h\u00e1\u010dek: zem\u011b se mus\u00ed domluvit s Tureckem a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, je\u017e u\u017e od devades\u00e1t\u00fdch let blokuj\u00ed arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 hranice kv\u016fli desetilet\u00ed trvaj\u00edc\u00edmu konfliktu o N\u00e1horn\u00ed Karabach \u2013 region le\u017e\u00edc\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, ale historicky ob\u00fdvan\u00fd p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b Arm\u00e9ny.<\/p>\n Je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou je v\u0161ak Rusko, kter\u00e9 v posledn\u00edch letech p\u0159i\u0161lo v\u00a0regionu o zna\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho vlivu a proti proz\u00e1padn\u00edmu sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed Arm\u00e9nie se ost\u0159e stav\u00ed. Moskva si je toti\u017e dob\u0159e v\u011bdoma, \u017ee se nov\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 karty v jihokavkazsk\u00e9m troj\u00faheln\u00edku rozd\u00e1vaj\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f. Zat\u00edmco Arm\u00e9nie byla dlouho ze t\u0159\u00ed zem\u00ed regionu na Rusku nejz\u00e1vislej\u0161\u00ed, nyn\u00ed usiluje o emancipaci a hled\u00e1 podporu u EU a Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Naopak sousedn\u00ed Gruzie po letech proz\u00e1padn\u00ed orientace oto\u010dila kormidlem a za\u010dala se s Moskvou op\u011bt sbli\u017eovat, co\u017e by Rusko r\u00e1do vid\u011blo i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Jerevanu. T\u0159et\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d, na ropu a plyn bohat\u00fd \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, se d\u00edky nerostn\u00e9mu bohatstv\u00ed chov\u00e1 \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l v\u00edce jako zcela nez\u00e1visl\u00fd akt\u00e9r. Hlasy Arm\u00e9n\u016f te\u010f rozhodnou, kter\u00e1 z mocnost\u00ed bude m\u00edt v Ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkazu navrch.<\/p>\n D\u016fle\u017eitost regionu raketov\u011b roste s t\u00edm, jak nab\u00fdv\u00e1 na v\u00fdznamu takzvan\u00fd St\u0159edn\u00ed koridor, tedy transportn\u00ed cesta z D\u00e1ln\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu do Evropy mimo rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed. Roli kriticky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho dopravn\u00edho koridoru akcentovaly v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b a v \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Pot\u00e9 co se civiln\u00ed doprava musela vyhnout vzdu\u0161n\u00e9mu prostoru nad Ukrajinou a n\u00e1sledn\u011b i nad Persk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem, se hlavn\u00ed d\u00e1lnic\u00ed pro lety mezi Evropou a Asi\u00ed stalo pr\u00e1v\u011b nebe nad Kavkazem.<\/p>\n Do hry aktivn\u011b vstoupily tak\u00e9 Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. Tento t\u00fdden nav\u0161t\u00edvil <\/a>Jerevan americk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marco Rubio a dva dny pot\u00e9 podpo\u0159il<\/a> premi\u00e9ra Pa\u0161injana p\u0159ed volbami i samotn\u00fd prezident Donald Trump. V r\u00e1mci snah o dojedn\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edru mezi \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem a Arm\u00e9nii prosazuj\u00ed USA vznik ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed dopravn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b s n\u00e1zvem TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity), je\u017e by Arm\u00e9nii ekonomicky propojila s\u00a0Evropou a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a sn\u00ed\u017eila z\u00e1vislost na tras\u00e1ch kontrolovan\u00fdch Ruskem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/p>\n Pr\u00e1v\u011b St\u0159edn\u00ed koridor je jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d se sna\u017e\u00ed na Kavkazu vliv Ruska omezit tak\u00e9 Evropa. Propojen\u00ed s Kaspick\u00fdm mo\u0159em a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asi\u00ed by star\u00e9mu kontinentu poskytlo tolik pot\u0159ebn\u00fd alternativn\u00ed zdroj surovin. Pot\u00e9, co se Evropa u\u017e \u010dty\u0159i roky sna\u017e\u00ed odst\u0159ihnout od Ruska coby dodavatele, se v\u00a0dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho plynu st\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l z\u00e1vislej\u0161\u00ed na nevypo\u010ditateln\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech a politicky nestabiln\u00edm Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchodu. Pot\u0159ebuje proto dovozy paliv v\u00edce diverzifikovat. Za\u010d\u00e1tkem kv\u011btna prob\u011bhl prvn\u00ed summit<\/a> EU s Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed, kter\u00e9ho se z\u00fa\u010dastnil rovn\u011b\u017e ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident Volodymyr Zelenskyj.<\/p>\n U\u017e te\u010f je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Moskva nev\u00e1h\u00e1 pou\u017e\u00edt jak\u00e9koli formy n\u00e1tlaku na tamn\u00ed vl\u00e1du i voli\u010de, aby Arm\u00e9nii v jej\u00ed euroatlantick\u00e9 cest\u011b zastavila. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku kv\u011btna rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin p\u0159irovnal<\/a> d\u011bn\u00ed v Arm\u00e9nii k tomu, co se d\u011blo p\u0159ed invaz\u00ed na Ukrajinu, a vyzval ke kon\u00e1n\u00ed referenda o sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed zem\u011b. Tento t\u00fdden Moskva vyt\u00e1hla svou tradi\u010dn\u00ed kartu: energetickou z\u00e1vislost na Rusku.<\/p>\n Kreml potvrdil<\/a> d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed neofici\u00e1ln\u00ed informace<\/a>, \u017ee jestli\u017ee bude Arm\u00e9nie pokra\u010dovat ve snaze o p\u0159istoupen\u00ed k EU, m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ij\u00edt nejen o v\u00edce ne\u017e 70procentn\u00ed slevu na rusk\u00fd plyn, ale tak\u00e9 o dod\u00e1vky t\u00e9to strategick\u00e9 suroviny.\u00a0Zem\u011b pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 dovozem z\u00a0Ruska t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 celou svou pot\u0159ebu plynu a nahradit tento v\u00fdpadek by pro ni bylo mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9. Rusko rovn\u011b\u017e postupn\u011b omezuje<\/a> dovoz arm\u00e9nsk\u00fdch potravin (s ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00edm, \u017ee nevyhovuj\u00ed rusk\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm na kvalitu).<\/p>\n Konkurence nar\u016fst\u00e1<\/p>\n Nejv\u00edce je \u00fapadek rusk\u00e9ho vlivu v regionu vid\u011bt na \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu. Mezi ob\u011bma zem\u011bmi narostlo nap\u011bt\u00ed pot\u00e9, co rusk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana v prosinci 2024 sest\u0159elila \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fd civiln\u00ed letoun. Ostr\u00e1 reakce Baku nakonec p\u0159inutila<\/a> rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta p\u0159ijmout za incident odpov\u011bdnost. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n v\u0161ak u\u017e v roce 2022 podepsal<\/a> s EU memorandum o postupn\u00e9m zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed dovozu plynu do Evropy na 20 miliard metr\u016f krychlov\u00fdch. A v dubnu p\u0159iv\u00edtal ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Zelensk\u00e9ho, s n\u00edm\u017e dokonce podepsal dohody o obrann\u00e9 a energetick\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci<\/a>.<\/p>\n Sv\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy m\u00e1 ov\u0161em v\u00a0regionu i Turecko.\u00a0Jak ve sv\u00e9 studii<\/a> napsal n\u011bmeck\u00fd think-tank SWP, Ankara se u\u017e od rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu sna\u017e\u00ed posilovat soun\u00e1le\u017eitost turkick\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f na Kavkazu a ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii, mezi n\u011b\u017e pat\u0159\u00ed \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nci, Kaza\u0161i, Uzbeci, Turkmeni a Kyrgyzov\u00e9. Jazykov\u00e1 a kulturn\u00ed bl\u00edzkost s jejich zem\u011bmi Turecku otev\u00edr\u00e1 tam\u011bj\u0161\u00ed trhy a umo\u017e\u0148uje navazovat politick\u00e1 spojenectv\u00ed. To pro Moskvu znamen\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1\u017enou konkurenci.<\/p>\n P\u0159esto by bylo p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 Rusy odepisovat. V posledn\u00edch letech se jim poda\u0159ilo obnovit<\/a> vliv v Gruzii, kter\u00e1 se od po\u010d\u00e1tku 21. stolet\u00ed sna\u017eila p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit EU i NATO. Tbilisi v\u0161ak sv\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o p\u0159istoupen\u00ed k EU form\u00e1ln\u011b pozastavilo<\/a> v listopadu 2024. Stoj\u00ed za t\u00edm p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm vzestup strany Gruz\u00ednsk\u00fd sen. Jej\u00ed neform\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u016fdce, miliard\u00e1\u0159 Bidzina Ivani\u0161vili, m\u00e1 toti\u017e podle webu<\/a> ve\u0159ejnopr\u00e1vn\u00ed televize Deutsche Welle k Rusku bl\u00edzko d\u00edky sv\u00e9mu tam\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu podnik\u00e1n\u00ed. Rusov\u00e9 by nyn\u00ed gruz\u00ednsk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 r\u00e1di zopakovali rovn\u011b\u017e v Arm\u00e9nii.<\/p>\n Pa\u0161injan\u016fv z\u00e1m\u011br otev\u0159\u00edt hranice s Tureckem a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem si vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 ze strany Arm\u00e9nie bolestiv\u00e9 \u00fastupky. Jedn\u00edm z nich je dota\u017een\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9ho procesu s Baku, je\u017e na podzim 2023 definitivn\u011b vyhnalo<\/a> zhruba 100 tis\u00edc Arm\u00e9n\u016f z N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu. Pokud se udr\u017e\u00ed u moci, hodl\u00e1 arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r t\u00e9\u017e normalizovat vztahy s Tureckem, kter\u00e9 dodnes neuznalo sv\u016fj pod\u00edl na genocid\u011b Arm\u00e9n\u016f z po\u010d\u00e1tku 20. stolet\u00ed. Pa\u0161injan t\u00edm prosazuje novou vizi Arm\u00e9nie, je\u017e je mnohem v\u00edce zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na budoucnost nam\u00edsto zaob\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed se k\u0159ivdami minulosti.<\/p>\n Prorusk\u00e1 opozice na to konto premi\u00e9ra obvi\u0148uje ze zrady. Jej\u00edm nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u0159edstavitelem je miliard\u00e1\u0159 Samvel Karapetjan, kter\u00fd vlastn\u00ed arm\u00e9nskou elektrickou s\u00ed\u0165. S\u00e1z\u00ed na tu \u010d\u00e1st obyvatelstva, j\u00ed\u017e se p\u0159\u00ed\u010d\u00ed Pa\u0161injanova politika \u00fastupk\u016f \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, i na p\u0159\u00edznivce konzervatismu. Arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady ho loni v l\u00e9t\u011b obvinily<\/a> ze snah zorganizovat v zemi prorusk\u00fd pu\u010d. Od t\u00e9 doby pob\u00fdv\u00e1 v dom\u00e1c\u00edm v\u011bzen\u00ed. P\u0159esto\u017ee jsou Arm\u00e9ni podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f v ot\u00e1zce m\u00edru s Baku rozd\u011bleni<\/a> skoro p\u016fl na p\u016fl, Pa\u0161injan v p\u0159edvolebn\u00edch pr\u016fzkumech st\u00e1le vede.<\/p>\n Podle pr\u016fzkumu<\/a> nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed organizace International Republican Institute (IRI), spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0americk\u00fdmi republik\u00e1ny, by Pa\u0161injanovu stranu Ob\u010dansk\u00e1 smlouva volilo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 32 procent voli\u010d\u016f, zat\u00edmco Karapetjanovu Silnou Arm\u00e9nii pouh\u00fdch \u0161est procent. Ostatn\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00ed strany z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed na je\u0161t\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch jednotk\u00e1ch procent. Fin\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla ale m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit to, \u017ee 23 procent voli\u010d\u016f z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nerozhodnut\u00fdch.<\/p>\n Postupn\u00fd odklon ve\u0159ejnosti od Ruska spustily ud\u00e1losti z roku 2020, kdy Moskva zemi navzdory spojeneck\u00fdm dohod\u00e1m nepomohla v konfliktu s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem. Rusk\u00e9 m\u00edrotvorn\u00e9 jednotky nereagovaly, ani kdy\u017e \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nci arm\u00e9nskou enkl\u00e1vu p\u0159ed t\u0159emi lety definitivn\u011b zlikvidovali. Pr\u00e1v\u011b to o rok pozd\u011bji vedlo zemi k\u00a0rozhodnut\u00ed vystoupit<\/a> z\u00a0vojensk\u00e9ho paktu pod veden\u00edm Ruska \u2013 Organizace Smlouvy o kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti \u2013, kter\u00fd je protiv\u00e1hou NATO. \u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"V\u016fdce opozice, odsouzen\u00fd za pokus o prorusk\u00fd p\u0159evrat k dom\u00e1c\u00edmu v\u011bzen\u00ed, obvi\u0148uje premi\u00e9ra, \u017ee do zem\u011b propa\u0161oval tuny…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101634,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[14782,8632,109,108,106,571,2081,1726,24325,61,4771,113],"class_list":["post-101633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-evropa","tag-armenie","tag-azerbajdzan","tag-europa","tag-europe","tag-evropa","tag-evropska-unie","tag-kavkaz","tag-moskva","tag-nikol-pasinjan","tag-rusko","tag-turecko","tag-usa"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116661937941780139","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101633\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}