{"id":10673,"date":"2026-03-01T08:15:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T08:15:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/10673\/"},"modified":"2026-03-01T08:15:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T08:15:11","slug":"cash-only-pujcky-na-spekulace-mohou-vyvolat-spiralu-smrti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/10673\/","title":{"rendered":"Cash Only: P\u016fj\u010dky na spekulace mohou vyvolat \u201espir\u00e1lu smrti\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u010cl\u00e1nek si tak\u00e9 m\u016f\u017eete poslechnout v\u00a0audioverzi.<\/p>\n

\u010ctete uk\u00e1zku z\u00a0newsletteru Cash Only, ve kter\u00e9m redakto\u0159i SZ Byznys ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u00e1tek komentuj\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m byznysu. Pokud v\u00e1s Cash Only zaujal, p\u0159ihlaste se k\u00a0odb\u011bru<\/a> newsletteru.<\/p>\n

V posledn\u00edch t\u0159ech letech t\u00e1hne trh m\u00e1nie okolo um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Investo\u0159i op\u011bt vyt\u00e1hli spekulativn\u00ed slogan \u201eTentokr\u00e1t je to jin\u00e9\u201c, kter\u00fd legend\u00e1rn\u00ed investor John Templeton ozna\u010dil za nejdra\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i slova v\u00a0historii investov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin, vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 kovy a\u00a0akcie nav\u00e1zan\u00e9 na AI ale rostou nejen kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee by se zvy\u0161ovalo jejich vyu\u017eit\u00ed a\u00a0v ekonomik\u00e1ch prudce rostla produktivita pr\u00e1ce. Roli hraje i\u00a0chov\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f na trz\u00edch. A\u00a0to kv\u016fli p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh\u016fm zalo\u017een\u00fdm na kolapsu m\u011bn, disrupci a\u00a0infla\u010dn\u00ed hrozb\u011b, upozor\u0148uje hlavn\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed strat\u00e9g RIA Advisors Lance Roberts.<\/p>\n

\u201eTrhy rostou nikoli kv\u016fli siln\u00fdm zisk\u016fm nebo zrychlen\u00ed ekonomiky, ale kv\u016fli optimismu ohledn\u011b budouc\u00edch cen. V\u00a0tomto prost\u0159ed\u00ed je hnac\u00ed silou n\u00e1kup\u016f setrva\u010dnost r\u016fstu cen, nikoli fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed faktory,\u201c uvedl ve sv\u00e9 anal\u00fdze<\/a> Roberts s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee \u201ejednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, investo\u0159i jsou ochotni platit v\u00edce, proto\u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee se situace bude i\u00a0nad\u00e1le zlep\u0161ovat\u201c.<\/p>\n

Trhy t\u00e1hnou nahoru p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy<\/p>\n

Zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy ale dostaly trhliny, kdy\u017e ceny zlata, st\u0159\u00edbra i\u00a0bitcoinu v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech prudce klesly. Trhy si z\u00e1rove\u0148 uv\u011bdomily, \u017ee ne v\u0161ichni na AI vyd\u011blaj\u00ed, co\u017e se projevilo rovn\u011b\u017e propadem akci\u00ed softwarov\u00fdch firem, ale rovn\u011b\u017e spr\u00e1vc\u016f majetku, realitn\u011b-poradensk\u00fdch firem nebo nap\u0159\u00edklad ratingov\u00fdch agentur. V\u00fdjimkou nebyly dvoucifern\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty b\u011bhem jednoho dne<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Euforie panuje nejen na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, ale i\u00a0v oblasti poskytovatel\u016f \u00fav\u011br\u016f. Rizikov\u00e9 pr\u00e9mie se toti\u017e pohybuj\u00ed okolo rekordn\u00edho minima. Benevolentn\u00ed postoj n\u011bkter\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed k\u00a0riziku dlu\u017en\u00edk\u016f u\u017e kritizoval nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mu\u017e Wall Street Jamie Dimon, \u0161\u00e9f nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 banky JPMorgan Chase.<\/p>\n

\u201eVid\u00edm p\u00e1r lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed d\u011blaj\u00ed hloup\u00e9 v\u011bci,\u201c popsal situaci Dimon a\u00a0zm\u00ednil nejmenovan\u00e9 instituce, kter\u00e9 v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 situaci, kdy je akciov\u00fd trh vysoko, ale je z\u00e1rove\u0148 nestabiln\u00ed a\u00a0reaguje na neust\u00e1le se m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0oblasti cel a\u00a0AI, uzav\u00edraj\u00ed rizikov\u00e9 obchody, aby z\u00edskaly dodate\u010dn\u00fd zisk.<\/p>\n

\u201eBohu\u017eel jsme to vid\u011bli v\u00a0letech 2005, 2006\u00a0a\u00a02007, kdy se odehr\u00e1lo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 tot\u00e9\u017e\u00a0\u2013 rostouc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edliv zvedal v\u0161echny lod\u011b a\u00a0v\u0161ichni vyd\u011bl\u00e1vali spoustu pen\u011bz,\u201c varuje Dimon.<\/p>\n

Optimistickou n\u00e1ladu mezi finan\u010dn\u00edky potvrdil pro SZ Byznys i\u00a0bank\u00e9\u0159, kter\u00fd si nep\u0159\u00e1l b\u00fdt jmenov\u00e1n. Na velk\u00e9 st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9 konferenci, kde se prob\u00edralo mimo jin\u00e9 i\u00a0financov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1t\u016f, zn\u011blo od bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f jedin\u00e9 doporu\u010den\u00ed sm\u011brem k\u00a0vl\u00e1d\u00e1m. \u201ePrintujte, pen\u011bz je dost.\u201c Takzvan\u00e9 printov\u00e1n\u00ed je v\u00fdraz pro vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b hlasu nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho americk\u00e9ho bank\u00e9\u0159e jsou zde i\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0finan\u010dn\u00ed kriz\u00ed roku 2008.\u00a0Spr\u00e1vce majetku Blue Owl Capital v\u00a0minul\u00fdch dnech zmrazil v\u00fdplaty investor\u016fm v\u00a0jednom ze sv\u00fdch fond\u016f, kter\u00fd poskytuje \u00fav\u011bry. Pr\u00e1v\u011b na nebankovn\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dky pro firmy se Blue Owl Capital soust\u0159ed\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u00fd krok ale ud\u011blala v\u00a0\u010dervnu 2007\u00a0rovn\u011b\u017e investi\u010dn\u00ed banka Bear Stearns, kdy\u017e zmrazila v\u00fdplatu ze sv\u00fdch dvou hedgeov\u00fdch fond\u016f kv\u016fli masivn\u00edm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m z\u00a0cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly kryty nekvalitn\u00edmi hypot\u00e9kami. Samotn\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00ed banka byla p\u0159evzata v\u00a0b\u0159eznu 2008\u00a0za \u201ebabku\u201c pr\u00e1v\u011b konkuren\u010dn\u00ed JPMorgan, kdy\u017e se jej\u00ed akcie fakticky zhroutily.<\/p>\n

I nyn\u00ed se tak poskytovatel\u00e9 \u00fav\u011br\u016f chovaj\u00ed podle ji\u017e legend\u00e1rn\u00edho cit\u00e1tu b\u00fdval\u00e9ho \u0161\u00e9fa Citigroup Charlese Prince: \u201eDokud hraje hudba, tak se tan\u010d\u00ed. A\u00a0my st\u00e1le tan\u010d\u00edme.\u201c Popisoval tak n\u00e1ladu na trz\u00edch v\u00a0polovin\u011b roku 2007.\u00a0O\u00a0rok pozd\u011bji zavl\u00e1dlo na trhu mrtvoln\u00e9 ticho, kter\u00e9 jen ob\u010das p\u0159eru\u0161il um\u00edr\u00e1\u010dek za dal\u0161\u00ed padlou banku.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f mohou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1nu dostat nikoliv banky, ale nebankovn\u00ed poskytovatel\u00e9 \u00fav\u011br\u016f neboli trh private credit. Podle \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 velkobanky UBS by toti\u017e mohli je\u0161t\u011b letos utrp\u011bt velk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty. V\u00a0z\u00e1kladn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed analytici UBS s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee dlu\u017en\u00edci nesplat\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dky a\u00a0dluh od soukrom\u00fdch investi\u010dn\u00edch firem v\u00a0objemu 75\u00a0a\u017e 120\u00a0miliard dolar\u016f do konce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.<\/p>\n

\u201eVarovn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly, kter\u00e9 dnes pozorujeme v\u00a0oblasti nebankovn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f, jsou n\u00e1padn\u011b podobn\u00e9 t\u011bm z\u00a0roku 2007,\u201c komentoval situaci pro agenturu Bloomberg Orlando Gemes, investi\u010dn\u00ed \u0159editel spole\u010dnosti Fourier Asset Management. Pouk\u00e1zal na zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se ochranu v\u011b\u0159itel\u016f a\u00a0slo\u017eit\u00e1 ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 \u201ezakr\u00fdvaj\u00ed nesoulad mezi t\u00edm, co si investo\u0159i mysl\u00ed, \u017ee vlastn\u00ed, a\u00a0t\u00edm, co mohou skute\u010dn\u011b prodat\u201c.<\/p>\n

Je ot\u00e1zkou, kolik des\u00edtek \u010di stovek miliard dolar\u016f je na \u00fav\u011bry nabaleno p\u0159es dal\u0161\u00ed cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry \u010di poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f. Ostatn\u011b i\u00a0\u010d\u00edsla o\u00a0velikosti trhu private credit se rozch\u00e1zej\u00ed. Agentura Bloomberg pracuje s\u00a0velikost\u00ed trhu v\u00a0objemu 1,8\u00a0bilionu dolar\u016f, zat\u00edmco banka Morgan Stanley uv\u00e1d\u00ed objem okolo t\u0159\u00ed bilion\u016f dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Rekordn\u00ed spekulace<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b nedostatek informac\u00ed o\u00a0trhu s\u00a0nekvalitn\u00edmi hypot\u00e9kami a\u00a0na n\u011b nav\u00e1zan\u00fdmi cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry vedl americkou banku Fed k\u00a0podcen\u011bn\u00ed situace v\u00a0roce 2008.\u00a0Podobn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 se m\u016f\u017ee opakovat i\u00a0nyn\u00ed. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd propad by v\u0161ak mohl b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee ameri\u010dt\u00ed investo\u0159i te\u010f maj\u00ed rekordn\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dky na n\u00e1kup akci\u00ed neboli takzvan\u00e9 margin loans.<\/p>\n

\u201eV sou\u010dasnosti je mar\u017eov\u00fd dluh ve v\u00fd\u0161i 6,23\u00a0procenta disponibiln\u00edho osobn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edjmu, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota v\u00a0historii. Toto \u010d\u00edslo v\u0161ak nezahrnuje dodate\u010dnou p\u00e1ku, kterou investo\u0159i vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm spekulativn\u00edho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0opcemi a\u00a0ETF s\u00a02\u00d7 a\u00a03\u00d7 p\u00e1kov\u00fdm efektem, kter\u00e9 se tak\u00e9 nakupuj\u00ed na dluh,\u201c popsal spekulativn\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed Roberts.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

ETF (burzovn\u011b obchodovan\u00e9 fondy) s\u00a0p\u00e1kov\u00fdm efektem vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed n\u00e1kup\u016f na dluh a\u00a0n\u00e1sob\u00ed tak zisky na trz\u00edch. Pokud tak nap\u0159\u00edklad index S&P 500\u00a0vzroste o\u00a0p\u011bt procent, tak ETF s\u00a0dvojn\u00e1sobnou p\u00e1kou vyst\u0159el\u00ed o\u00a0deset procent.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1kupy akci\u00ed s\u00a0vyu\u017eit\u00edm dluhu maj\u00ed dvoj\u00ed efekt. \u201eKdy\u017e se da\u0159\u00ed, tak n\u00e1sob\u00ed zisky. Naopak p\u0159i poklesech zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu,\u201c popisuje Michal Stupavsk\u00fd, investi\u010dn\u00ed strat\u00e9g skupiny Conseq. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se zvy\u0161uje kol\u00edsavost na trz\u00edch, co\u017e se nyn\u00ed d\u011bje.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m ale nastane, pokud dojde k\u00a0poklesu cen aktiv, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1 nucen\u00fd prodej akci\u00ed \u010di jin\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f, aby se pokryl dluh a\u00a0v\u011b\u0159itel\u016fm nevznikla ztr\u00e1ta. K\u00a0nucen\u00fdm prodej\u016fm nav\u00edc doch\u00e1z\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u011b, kdy\u017e padaj\u00edc\u00ed ceny aktiv dopadaj\u00ed na v\u0161echny poskytovatele margin loans najednou.<\/p>\n

Zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 prodeje pak je\u0161t\u011b prohlubuj\u00ed propady na burz\u00e1ch, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed nucen\u00e9 v\u00fdprodeje. Trh se t\u00edm dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do \u201espir\u00e1ly smrti\u201c, po jej\u00edm\u017e skon\u010den\u00ed drobn\u00ed investo\u0159i po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed v\u00e1s akciov\u00e9 trhy, energetika nebo pl\u00e1ny \u010desk\u00fdch podnikatel\u016f? P\u0159ihlaste se k\u00a0odb\u011bru Cash Only<\/a> a\u00a0kompletn\u00ed newsletter budete ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u00e1tek dost\u00e1vat do sv\u00e9 schr\u00e1nky.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010cl\u00e1nek si tak\u00e9 m\u016f\u017eete poslechnout v\u00a0audioverzi. \u010ctete uk\u00e1zku z\u00a0newsletteru Cash Only, ve kter\u00e9m redakto\u0159i SZ Byznys ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u00e1tek…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10674,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,67,68,3243,6461,69,6460,126,6459],"class_list":{"0":"post-10673","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-akcie","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-byznys","11":"tag-cash-only","12":"tag-etf-exchange-traded-fund","13":"tag-investice","14":"tag-spekulace","15":"tag-umela-inteligence-ai","16":"tag-wall-street"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10673\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}