![\"11\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ef028931-543f-436d-bd5e-2e797a21179d.jpeg\")
<\/p>\nNatahuj\u00edc\u00ed se uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se infla\u010dn\u00ed rizika a relativn\u011b odoln\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomika n\u00e1s vedou ke zm\u011bn\u011b \u00farokov\u00e9ho v\u00fdhledu. Nov\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me v tomto roce dva r\u016fsty z\u00e1kladn\u00ed repo-sazby \u010cNB po 25 bazick\u00fdch bodech na 4,00 %. To nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ij\u00edt ji\u017e na \u010dervnov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Hlavn\u00edm argumentem je natahuj\u00edc\u00ed se uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kter\u00e9 postupn\u011b vede k zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed odhad\u016f pro ceny energi\u00ed – zejm\u00e9na zemn\u00edho plynu, u kter\u00e9ho se st\u00e1le evropsk\u00e9 z\u00e1sobn\u00edky pohybuj\u00ed na historicky n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farovni napln\u011bn\u00ed (okolo 40 %). Opakovan\u011b jsme proto zvy\u0161ovali na\u0161e odhady refixac\u00ed cen energi\u00ed pro dom\u00e1cnosti na za\u010d\u00e1tku p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku a sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch efekt\u016f dra\u017e\u0161\u00edch energi\u00ed a pohonn\u00fdch hmot nap\u0159\u00edklad v cen\u00e1ch potravin. Efekty podle na\u0161ich odhad\u016f budou nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na za\u010d\u00e1tku p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku, kdy se meziro\u010dn\u00ed inflace m\u016f\u017ee pohybovat t\u011bsn\u011b pod 4 %. Za cel\u00fd p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok pak n\u00e1\u0161 odhad po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 zat\u00edm s 3,3 % s t\u00edm, \u017ee se \u010dasem m\u016f\u017ee posouvat d\u00e1l vzh\u016fru.<\/p>\n
Druh\u00fdm hlavn\u00edm argumentem je odolnost dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiky. Za prvn\u00ed kvart\u00e1l sice zklamala slab\u00fdm r\u016fstem (0,2% m\/m a 2,2% y\/y). Ten v\u0161ak odr\u00e1\u017eel mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b siln\u00e9 dovozy a velmi silnou dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vku. Ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst byl nav\u00edc doprov\u00e1zen mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b rychl\u00fdm r\u016fstem investi\u010dn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f a tak\u00e9 mezd (+8,2 %), kter\u00e9 ji\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed rok v \u0159ad\u011b siln\u011b p\u0159ekon\u00e1vaj\u00ed dynamiku produktivity v \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice. \u010cNB by pro st\u0159edn\u011bdobou stabilizaci inflace okolo 2 % pot\u0159ebovala vid\u011bt dynamiku mezd sp\u00ed\u0161e v okol\u00ed 4,5 %. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 mzdy se nav\u00edc odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v relativn\u011b vysok\u00e9m infla\u010dn\u00edm momentu ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch (okolo 5 %) a zvy\u0161uj\u00ed riziko, \u017ee se vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed impuls rychleji p\u0159enese z pohonn\u00fdch hmot a energi\u00ed do zbytku spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9ho ko\u0161e.<\/p>\n
Nejistota spojen\u00e1 s na\u0161\u00edm infla\u010dn\u00edm i hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm v\u00fdhledem samoz\u0159ejm\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e1. Bude z\u00e1le\u017eet nejen na d\u00e9lce uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, ale i na reakci rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 politiky a eventu\u00e1ln\u00edch dal\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1saz\u00edch \u010desk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy do p\u0159irozen\u00e9 \u201ccenotvorby\u201d. To v\u0161e m\u016f\u017ee situaci zm\u011bnit. Na druhou stranu infla\u010dn\u00ed rizika ji\u017e narostla v posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech do t\u00e9 m\u00edry, \u017ee \u201cv\u010dasn\u00e9 signaliza\u010dn\u00ed\u201d zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb d\u00e1v\u00e1 z pohledu centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky zna\u010dn\u00fd smysl. Nejednalo by se rozhodn\u011b o \u201cm\u011bnov\u011bpolitickou chybu\u201d a v\u010dasn\u00fd pohyb sazeb sm\u011brem vzh\u016fru m\u016f\u017ee sn\u00ed\u017eit pot\u0159ebu zvy\u0161ovat sazby v\u00fdrazn\u011bji pozd\u011bji v pr\u016fb\u011bhu tohoto roku.<\/p>\n
P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me proto, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby mohou j\u00edt teoreticky vzh\u016fru ji\u017e na nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edm \u010dervnov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed a pak na n\u011bkter\u00e9m z nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch dal\u0161\u00edch (srpen – listopad). Po v\u011bt\u0161inu roku 2027 nov\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me stabilitu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a v\u011b\u0159\u00edme, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka je p\u0159i nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti sp\u00ed\u0161e bude cht\u00edt znovu sn\u00ed\u017eit. K tomu m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt ji\u017e na konci roku 2027, kdy by m\u011bla infla\u010dn\u00ed vlna za\u010d\u00edt pomalu odezn\u00edvat.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
TRHY<\/p>\n
Koruna<\/p>\n
\u010cesk\u00e1 koruna pozvolna posiluje a sna\u017e\u00ed se \u201cpod\u00edvat\u201d pod 24,20 EUR\/CZK. V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmysl (dan\u00fd krom\u011b jin\u00e9ho p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b dobr\u00fdm v\u00fdkonem energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed) nebyl asi hlavn\u00ed hybatelem – naopak o n\u011bco ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed cena ropy a lep\u0161\u00ed apetit po riziku mohly svoj\u00ed roli sehr\u00e1vat. V nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch dnech pro korunu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vyhl\u00ed\u017eet na jak\u00e9koliv impulsy z centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky sm\u011brem k \u010dervnov\u00e9mu zased\u00e1n\u00ed, ohledn\u011b kter\u00e9ho bude bezesporu panovat velk\u00e1 nejistota (viz \u00favodn\u00edk).<\/p>\n
Eurodolar<\/p>\n
Propad cen ropy a n\u00e1vrat apetitu po riziku pom\u00e1haj\u00ed eurodolaru mazat ztr\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 nabral od p\u00e1tku odpoledne.<\/p>\n
Dne\u0161n\u00ed kalend\u00e1\u0159 je nezaj\u00edmav\u00fd a tak se trh m\u016f\u017ee pomalu p\u0159ipravovat na z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed data v USA a \u010dtvrte\u010dn\u00ed zased\u00e1n\u00ed ECB. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee trh bude i nad\u00e1le monitorovat situaci na trhu s ropou a na m\u011bnov\u00e9m p\u00e1ru USDJPY.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Natahuj\u00edc\u00ed se uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se infla\u010dn\u00ed rizika a relativn\u011b odoln\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomika n\u00e1s vedou ke zm\u011bn\u011b…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112670,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[31951,67,68,32273,19743,1768,32272,32270,3956,13157,5264,32271,20375],"class_list":["post-112669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-bude","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-cervnu","tag-cnb","tag-hre","tag-jiz","tag-revidujeme","tag-rozbresk","tag-sazby","tag-vyhled","tag-vzhuru","tag-zvyseni"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116721541975957467","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112669","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112669"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112669\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112669"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112669"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112669"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}