{"id":113651,"date":"2026-06-10T15:40:17","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T15:40:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/113651\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T15:40:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T15:40:17","slug":"setrvacne-akcie-jsou-opet-v-kurzu-jak-se-chovaji-behem-nafukovani-a-vyfukovani-bubliny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/113651\/","title":{"rendered":"Setrva\u010dn\u00e9 akcie jsou op\u011bt v kurzu. Jak se chovaj\u00ed b\u011bhem nafukov\u00e1n\u00ed a vyfukov\u00e1n\u00ed bubliny?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kdysi jsem \u010detl jednu studii zam\u011b\u0159enou nachov\u00e1n\u00ed hedge fond\u016f b\u011bhem nafukov\u00e1n\u00ed internetov\u00e9 bubliny. Tvrdila, \u017ee \u0159ada z fond\u016f v posledn\u00ed f\u00e1zi tohoto jevu v\u011b\u0159ila, \u017ee akcie jsou p\u0159edra\u017een\u00e9. Ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u011b\u0159ila, \u017ee ceny p\u016fjdou je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fd\u0161 kv\u016fli chov\u00e1n\u00ed zbytku trhu. Tak\u017ee i tyto hedge fondy akcie d\u00e1l dr\u017eely, \u010di dokonce nakupovaly. Momentum je takov\u00e1 zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 v\u011bc a dnes se na n\u011bj pod\u00edv\u00e1me trochu v\u00edc.<\/p>\n

V\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 n\u00e1m m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ipomenout Keynesovu sout\u011b\u017e kr\u00e1sy, kde jde o to uh\u00e1dnout, kter\u00e1 d\u00edvka j\u00ed vyhraje. Hr\u00e1\u010di pak nejednaj\u00ed podle sv\u00fdch preferenc\u00ed a osobn\u00edho pohledu na kr\u00e1su, ale podle sv\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru na vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed ostatn\u00edch. H\u00e1daj\u00ed, jak budou volit ostatn\u00ed. Stejn\u011b tak hedge fondy nejednaly podle sv\u00e9ho pohledu na cenu a hodnotu akci\u00ed, ale podle toho, co si myslely o n\u00e1zorech ostatn\u00edch.<\/p>\n

To ale neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee trend je v\u017edy bublinou. Trendy na akci\u00edch bychom si podle mne teoreticky mohli rozd\u011blit do f\u00e1ze fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed a do f\u00e1ze psychologick\u00e9. Ve f\u00e1zi fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed se objev\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e1 nov\u00e1 fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed informace, jev, \u00favaha a podobn\u011b, kter\u00e1 m\u011bn\u00ed odhady hodnot akci\u00ed. Teoreticky by se trhy v takov\u00e9 situaci m\u011bly p\u0159enastavit skokov\u011b, ale tak tomu obvykle nen\u00ed \u2013 ur\u010ditou dobu trv\u00e1, ne\u017e se ujasn\u00ed nov\u00e9 odhady hodnot a ceny se k nim posunou. Ve f\u00e1zi psychologick\u00e9 bychom z tohoto zjednodu\u0161en\u00e9ho pohledu u\u017e hovo\u0159ili o p\u0159est\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed cen nad hodnoty (jejich rozumn\u00e9\u201c odhady). Jde o f\u00e1zi popsanou v\u00fd\u0161e.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf ukazuje, jak si na americk\u00e9m trhu vedly akcie hnan\u00e9 momentem, tedy setrva\u010dnost\u00ed, relativn\u011b k akci\u00edm s n\u00edzkou volatilitou. I pokud d\u00e1me stranou extr\u00e9my se podle grafu zd\u00e1, \u017ee s\u00e1zky na setrva\u010dnost se vypl\u00e1c\u00ed \u2013 k\u0159ivka se dr\u017e\u00ed v\u00edce, \u010di m\u00e9n\u011b nad 100 %. M\u011bli bychom si ale d\u00e1vat pozor, abychom nem\u00edchali hru\u0161ky s jablky. Pokud porovn\u00e1v\u00e1me n\u00e1vratnosti, m\u011bli bychom porovn\u00e1vat i riziko. A \u201en\u00edzkovolatiln\u00ed\u201c akcie by t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 z definice m\u011bly m\u00edt ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed riziko. Tak\u017ee pom\u011br n\u00e1vratnost\/riziko by u nich nemusel b\u00fdt nutn\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"0\"<\/p>\n

ale ukazuje graf zejm\u00e9na kv\u016fli dv\u011bma v n\u011bm zobrazen\u00fdm extr\u00e9m\u016fm, z nich\u017e jedn\u00edm proch\u00e1z\u00edme pr\u00e1v\u011b nyn\u00ed. Ten prvn\u00ed nastal na konci v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 internetov\u00e9 bubliny, kdy si setrva\u010dn\u00e9 akcie vedly mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b dob\u0159e. Z tohoto pohledu by se tedy nyn\u00ed historie r\u00fdmovala, graf by mo\u017en\u00e1 mohl fungovat jako jist\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed. Nechci zde ale dnes v\u00edce rozeb\u00edrat, jak se nyn\u00ed situace podob\u00e1 a nepodob\u00e1 t\u00e9 z doby p\u0159ed v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dtvrt stolet\u00edm. Pouk\u00e1zal bych u\u017e jen na to, \u017ee i po poklesu \u201ebublinov\u00e9\u201c k\u0159ivky po roce 2000 se n\u00e1vratnost setrva\u010dn\u00fdch akci\u00ed st\u00e1le dr\u017eela v\u00fdrazn\u011b na akciemi s n\u00edzkou volatilitou (s on\u00edm dodatkem t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edm se rizika zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdm v\u00fd\u0161e).<\/p>\n

Nedo\u0161lo tedy k tomu, \u017ee by investo\u0159i \u00fapln\u011b zanev\u0159eli na momentum. A to po p\u0159edchoz\u00ed sl\u00e1v\u011b upadlo v n\u011bjakou n\u00e1vratnostn\u00ed nemilost. Dalo by se pak spekulovat, \u017ee jde o indikaci n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edho: Momentum v sob\u011b m\u00e1 obecn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u00fd \u201efundament\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c prvek zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd v\u00fd\u0161e. Jinak \u0159e\u010deno, jeho tahounem b\u00fdv\u00e1 do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry ono postupn\u00e9 p\u0159enastavov\u00e1n\u00ed cen k nov\u00fdm dohad\u016fm fundament\u00e1ln\u00edch hodnot. Ale je to u\u017e je jen takov\u00e1 dne\u0161n\u00edm grafem vyvolan\u00e1 spekulace.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kdysi jsem \u010detl jednu studii zam\u011b\u0159enou nachov\u00e1n\u00ed hedge fond\u016f b\u011bhem nafukov\u00e1n\u00ed internetov\u00e9 bubliny. Tvrdila, \u017ee \u0159ada z fond\u016f…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113652,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,22297,25143,67,68,32421,12290,1851,32420,32422,27700,32419,32423],"class_list":["post-113651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-byznys","tag-akcie","tag-behem","tag-bubliny","tag-business","tag-byznys","tag-chovaji","tag-jak","tag-jsou","tag-kurzu","tag-nafukovani","tag-opet","tag-setrvacne","tag-vyfukovani"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116726571192501223","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113651"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113651\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}